MOD 10:GOV 312L: US FOREIGN POLICY

Commitment Problems as a Cause of War

• Triggering Circumstances

  • Arises from problems associated with contracting over time.

  • Separate from issues of private information; aims to identify the "peace range".

  • Fears about an adversary's commitment to uphold peace settlements indefinitely.

• Future Concerns

  • States anticipate that adversaries may demand new concessions when they become more powerful.

  • Commitment problems lead states to assess the value of compromise in the present and future when deciding between war or peace.

• Power Dynamics

  • Commitment problems often emerge due to large and rapid shifts in power between opposing groups.

  • The group with greater power gains leverage to demand political concessions for a continued peace.

  • States may initiate a preventive war not out of a fear of immediate attack but as a strategy to avoid making future concessions.

How Commitment Problems Lead to War

• Weaker Side

  • The side that is weakening may choose to engage in a preventive war to avoid being forced into unfavorable political concessions in the future.

  • The decision is grounded in the inability of the growing stronger side to credibly commit to restraint in the future.

• Rationality of the Rising Side

  • The rising side seeks to secure more of the disputed issue and can enhance its leverage through future negotiations, potentially without war.

  • The weaker side perceives that it must fight now to prevent future disadvantage as the balance of power shifts.

• Historical Examples

  • Henry Kissinger cited Germany’s leaders in 1990 as an example.

  • China: Chinese President Xi’s inability to bind future leaders around commitments brings this issue into focus.

Understanding the Commitment Problem Through Visuals

• Figure 9-2: Power Shifts, the Commitment Problem, and War -Illustrates that a peace zone existed during the first time period where both HOME and FOREIGN accepted peace settlements if offers were between (x, 1-x) in this range.

  • Adjusting conditions in this figure helps to visualize how shifts in the distribution of power can provoke a preventive war response from the declining state.

Preserving Peace Amid Commitment Problems

• Impetus for War

  • Wars are often prompted by the difficulty in contracting power dynamics over time.

  • States might prefer to fight rather than yield larger concessions from a position of weakness.

• Institutional Mechanisms

  • Implementing strategies that maintain a static distribution of power or mitigate incentives to alter an existing status quo peace settlement.

  • Arms Control Agreements: Aim to stabilize military power distributions.

  • Example: Post-WWI Versailles settlement was designed to uphold the postwar military power distribution, especially after Germany's defeat.

  • Example: The Iran nuclear accord sought to prevent shifts in military power by limiting Iran's capacity for nuclear armament. However, concerns arose due to the expiration clause after ten years.

• Other Factors

  • The role of democratic governance and membership in international organizations like NATO in contributing to peace preservation is also significant.

Historical Significance of World War I

• Imperial Collapse

  • WWI resulted in the dismantling of major empires: Russia, Germany, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottoman Empire.

  • It created political and military conditions that left the United States (temporarily) as the world's most powerful nation.

• Commitment Problem Explanation

  • The war's onset in 1914 can be attributed to commitment issues, such as Russia's inability to respect Austro-Hungarian influence in the Balkans.

U.S. Entry into World War I

• Woodrow Wilson's Neutrality

  • Wilson consistently sought to keep the U.S. out of the war, campaigning on this principle during the 1916 election.

  • Example: His Peace Without Victory Speech emphasized a desire for negotiated peace.

• German Submarine Warfare

  • The German military's decision to use unrestricted submarine warfare was influenced by their belief that they could not sustain the economic costs of the British blockade and that the balance of power in Europe was shifting against them.

  • Germany anticipated that the U.S. would eventually side with the Allies, adding urgency to their military strategy.

• Shift in Public Opinion

  • The German submarine campaign influenced public sentiment and made it politically untenable for Wilson to maintain U.S. neutrality.

• Political Strategy

  • Wilson aimed to shape not just the outcome of the war but also the terms of the post-war peace settlement effectively.

Consequences of U.S. Entry into WWI

• Military Consequences

  • U.S. involvement shifted the balance of military power, altering German perceptions of their potential for victory.

• Political Consequences

  • The war and Wilson’s advocacy for self-determination facilitated:

  • The collapse of empires and growth of democratic governance.

  • Establishment of a collective security system centered around the League of Nations.

• Economic Consequences

  • The U.S. emerged as the world's preeminent economic power and the victor's creditor post-war.

  • In summary, the U.S. played a critical role in the construction of the post-war international political order.