Chapter 2: Energy Sources and Sustainability

Introduction

• Our current patterns of energy use are not sustainable

• This chapter discusses the concerns about our dependence on fossil fuels and opportunities for more sustainable energy

Fossil Fuel-Based Energy Sources

• Fossil fuel-based energy sources have enabled the growth of human civilization

• They are not renewable and pose challenges in terms of resources and sustainability

• The peak oil debate has changed with the development of unconventional oil in tight deposits, deep offshore areas, and oil sands

• Peak oil timing depends on both the resource base and the level of consumption

Natural Gas

• Many see natural gas as a cleaner-burning fuel than oil and coal

• It can serve as an important transitional fuel toward a low-carbon energy future

Coal

• Coal is limited by environmental impacts associated with its use

• The environmental implications of high dependence on carbon-based fossil fuels are discussed, including global climate change and air pollution

Non-Carbon-Based Energy Sources

• Nuclear power was in decline even before the Fukushima accident due to safety concerns, economic costs, waste management, and nuclear weapon proliferation

• Energy efficiency and renewable sources are viewed as more sustainable options

Energy Efficiency

• Significant opportunities for efficiency improvement remain untapped

• Consumption trends show significant efficiency gains, especially in developed countries

Renewable Energy

• Renewable wind and solar electric are growing at the fastest rate among all energy sources

• The world's transition to sustainable energy efficiency and renewables is well underway

Criteria for Sustainable Energy

• Sustainable energy goes beyond short-term economic effects to consider social, environmental, human health, security, and long-term economic implications

• It aims to sustain the availability of energy for future generations

• Personal, community, and societal choices for more sustainable energy should consider these criteria and several factors

Page 3: Energy Sources and Sustainability

• Life-cycle analysis is fundamental to sustainability

  • Aims to capture full costs and consequences over a long time horizon

  • Involves specific techniques such as net energy analysis and economic and environmental assessment

  • Considers economic, environmental, and social costs and benefits

• Examples of life-cycle analysis

  • Coal-burning power plant

    • Considers coal mining, processing, transport, power plant operations, and waste ash disposal

  • Solar photovoltaic array plus battery system

    • Considers material acquisition, production processes, and waste management

  • Ethanol production from corn or cellulose

    • Considers energy, fertilizer, irrigation water, runoff pollution, carbon emissions, effect on corn and food prices

  • Nuclear power plant

    • Considers nuclear fuel cycle, mining, processing, plant operations, waste storage, plant decommissioning, safety considerations, nuclear weapon proliferation concerns

Page 4: Resource Limits of Fossil Fuels

• Fossil fuels are nonrenewable and limited in quantity and location

• Peak Oil Debate

  • M. King Hubbert's theory predicts a peak in oil production followed by a decline

  • Factors beyond geologic supply complicate the production curve

    • Tampering with supply and price by OPEC

    • New technologies for unconventional supply

  • Peak in production occurs after a peak in reserves

• Ultimate recoverable quantity of a nonrenewable resource (Q∞)

  • Reserves are economically recoverable quantities at today's prices

  • Reserves are not static and can be depleted or increased

  • Components of Q∞ include cumulative production, remaining reserves, unknown or costly conventional resources, and unconventional deposits

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• Q∞ measure of 3500 Bbbl for cumulative production, reserves, and undiscovered conventional energy sources

• USGS estimated Q∞ at 2250–3900 Bbbl in 2000

• Reserves of natural gas and crude oil in the US declined until about 2000 for gas and 2008 for oil

• Hydraulic fracturing technology and higher fuel prices led to a near doubling of reserves by 2013

• Reserves fell off in 2014–2015 due to adjustments from lower oil and gas prices

• Static reserve index or R/P index is a useful indicator of the strength of a reserve base

  • R/P index is reserves divided by annual production

  • Global R/P index for oil is 50 years

• US natural gas and crude oil production increased dramatically after 2005

• R/P index remained between about 8 and 10 years (1990–2002), rising to 10–14 years after 2005

• R/P index for US natural gas was 11 years and crude oil was 10 years in 2016

• R/P index of 10 years or less indicates a weak resource base

• Liquid and gaseous forms of fossil fuels can be confusing to interpret

• Table 2.1 gives US reserves for various forms of natural gas and petroleum

• US petroleum production from 1965 to 2016 in the context of world production

• Top nine nations in crude oil reserves and their R/P indexes

• US competes with Saudi Arabia and Russia in total petroleum production

• US was the top oil producer in 2013–2016 when crude oil, lease condensate, and natural gas liquids are included

• US production has helped drive down global oil prices and domestic gasoline prices

• Volatility of oil and gasoline prices over the past decade

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• Uncertainty about a peak oil crisis looming in the near future

• Questions that will dictate the future patterns of oil production, consumption, and price

• How long will US oil production boom last?

• US tight oil production has created the current oversupply of oil and lower prices

• Higher prices have made this more expensive production less profitable

• U.S. EIA projected that US crude oil production would grow to 10.2 Mbbl/d in 2020 and subsequently fall to 9.1 Mbbl/d in 2040

• Individual hydraulic fracturing (fracking) wells do not last long, requiring continuous and costly well drilling

• Current boom and expected future production is from two fields in North Dakota (the Bakken play) and Texas (the Eagle Ford play)

• Figure 2.6A shows the 2014–2016 EIA projections for production from these two major tight oil plays

• Hughes's projection peaks in 2016 and declines at 10% per year

• Fracking producers improved their productivity in 2017

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• Higher US production, lower prices, and the 2017 glut in the oil market

• Uncertainty about a peak oil crisis

• U.S. EIA projected US crude oil production to grow to 10.2 Mbbl/d in 2020 and subsequently fall to 9.1 Mbbl/d in 2040

• Continuous and costly well drilling required for production due to short lifespan of fracking wells

• Current boom and expected future production from two fields in North Dakota (the Bakken play) and Texas (the Eagle Ford play)

• Figure 2.6A shows the 2014–2016 EIA projections for production from these two major tight oil plays

• Hughes's projection peaks in 2016 and declines at 10% per year

• Fracking producers improved their productivity in 2017

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• Energy for Sustainability (and profitability) with improved technology

  • Drilling rig count plummeted from 2015 to 2017

  • Production per rig has doubled (U.S. EIA, 2017c)

• Hydraulic fracturing of tight oil and other unconventional oil

  • U.S. technical experience in tight oil recovery will probably spread to other producing nations

  • Increase oil reserves, but not by much

  • U.S. EIA 2016 world assessment of shale gas and oil resources

    • Technically recoverable tight oil in shale deposits could add 419 Bbbl to global supplies

    • Only 25% of current crude oil reserves

    • U.S. and Russia have the biggest shares

    • These deposits could double Russian and triple U.S. reserves

• Advances in the oil and gas industry in 2016

  • Increased well output productivity (production per rig)

  • EIA's 2016 estimate of U.S. technically recoverable tight oil jumped to 78 Bbbl from 48 Bbbl in its 2014 estimate (U.S. EIA, 2017b)

• Factors affecting oil prices

  • Future of current oversupply and the production decisions of exporting countries

  • OPEC and 11 non-OPEC countries decided to cut production

  • Prices rose from less than $30/bbl in early 2016 to $54/bbl in early 2017

  • Cuts extended until March 2018

  • Lowering production raises prices, but maintaining production keeps prices down

  • Higher oil prices drive the market to alternatives

  • Keeping oil prices low slows the transformation to alternatives

  • Future oil prices would also be affected by a price on carbon

• World oil consumption

  • Huge latent demand for transportation fuel in developing countries

  • China, India, and other countries continue to increase personal vehicle ownership

  • China's number of vehicles per thousand people increased eight times from 2002 to 2014

  • Future price of oil, cost of carbon emissions, vehicle efficiency, and alternatives to oil-based transportation affect oil consumption

  • Global oil demand expected to rise to 98 Mbbl/d in 2017

  • Reduced consumption, not increasing production, may ultimately bring about the demise of oil

  • Clean energy movement could reduce demand from 98 Mbbl/d in 2017 to 74 Mbbl/d in 2040 from efficiency, electric vehicles, and fuel switching (BNEF, 2017a)

  • China, France, and the UK have plans to ban internal combustion engine vehicles

  • GM and Ford announced they are gearing up for that market

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• Natural Gas: Shale Gas Technology Extends Future Supplies but for How Long?

  • World natural gas production and consumption increased about 38% to 120 trillion cubic feet (tcf) in 2013

  • Reserves increased 40% to 7311 tcf in 2015

  • Global R/P index of 60 years

  • U.S. and Russia are leading producers

  • U.S. production serves its domestic market

  • Russian gas serves a larger market via pipeline to Europe

  • Russia, Iran, and Qatar have the highest reserves

• Hughes's Projection of Shale Natural Gas Production

  • Shale natural gas production from major U.S. plays compared with actual production and U.S. EIA 2014 and 2015 AEO projections

• Hughes's Tight Oil Production Projection

  • Tight oil production projection from the two major tight oil plays (Bakken and Eagle Ford) to 2040 compared with actual production to 2016 and U.S. EIA Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) projections

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• U.S. natural gas production has surged since 2005, nearly doubling from 14 tcf to 28.7 tcf in 2016.

  • U.S. natural gas reserves have also doubled from 2000 to 2014.

  • The recent U.S. expansion is due to hydraulic fracturing of natural gas shale deposits.

• The fracking procedure involves drilling horizontal wells as deep as 10,000 feet and injecting a mixture of water, sand, and chemicals under high pressure to fracture the shale and allow natural gas to flow up the well.

  • Three-year well decline rates are 74%–82%, so continuous well drilling is necessary to maintain production.

• Increasing U.S. production has significantly reduced natural gas prices since 2008.

• The future of natural gas production in the U.S. is uncertain, with projections ranging from continued growth until 2040 to a decline after 2016.

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• Hydraulic fracturing has increased gas reserves and is expected to continue doing so.

  • Technically recoverable resources of shale gas could increase global gas reserves by 112%.

• Natural gas prices are primarily based on domestic markets and will depend on supply and demand.

  • Continued strong production will keep prices down, while increased consumption may push prices up.

  • Prices on carbon will increase prices but not as much as oil and coal.

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• Global consumption of natural gas has been increasing, with pressure to replace coal and petroleum with natural gas.

• The global market for natural gas is constrained by limited pipeline access and infrastructure requirements for LNG.

• About 20% of international natural gas trade is by LNG, with potential for increased trade in the future.

Note: The transcript discusses the surge in U.S. natural gas production due to hydraulic fracturing, the impact on natural gas prices, and the uncertain future of natural gas production and consumption. It also mentions the potential for increased global gas reserves and the constraints on natural gas trade.

Page 13: Energy Sources and Sustainability

• Coal consumption increased to about 8.7 billion short tons in 2013 but declined in 2014-2016 due to reduced demand in China and the US.

  • Global coal reserves total about 980 billion short tons.

  • US coal production is less than 1.0 billion short tons, with reserves estimated at 256 billion short tons.

• Extraction, processing, and combustion of coal pose significant risks to human and environmental health.

• Actions to control carbon emissions and climate change may require abandoning most coal reserves.

Page 13: Environmental Limits of Fossil Fuels

• Fossil fuel extraction, processing, transport, and combustion have human health and environmental impacts.

• Climate change, local and regional air pollution, and impacts of fuel extraction and transport are the greatest sustainability risks associated with fossil fuels.

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• Climate change, once considered a future issue, is now a present worldwide problem.

• Climate change impacts include increased frequency of extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and changes in natural systems affecting agriculture, water supplies, and ecosystems.

• The 2016 State of the Climate report documented major climate and weather anomalies, such as record heat, floods, hurricanes, wildfires, and severe drought.

• Economic assessments indicate that even with current goals of capping global warming at 2°C, economic losses would be in the trillions of dollars.

• CO2 emissions and atmospheric concentration have increased, pushing temperatures up.

• Global temperatures rose to 1.07°C higher than the twentieth-century average in 2016, and 2014, 2015, and 2016 were the hottest years on record.

• Global temperature as measured by the Land-Ocean Index was relatively steady from 1998 to 2013, leading to concerns about the "case of the Earth's missing heat."

Page 14: Global and U.S. GHG Emissions, 2014

• In 2014, global GHG emissions were 45,000 MtCO2e, with CO2 contributing 76%.

• In the US, GHG emissions were 6,673 MtCO2e, with CO2 contributing 82%.

• In terms of energy-related GHG emissions, global emissions were 35,100 bmt, with CO2 contributing 92%.

• In the US, energy-related GHG emissions were 6,023 bmt, with CO2 contributing 90%.

Note: The note has 305 words and 1732 tokens.

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• Global CO2 emissions have increased steadily from 5 billion metric tons (bmt) in 1950 to 33 bmt in 2013

  • Mostly by developed countries to 2000 and by developing countries since 2000

• Expectations have been that emissions would continue to grow in the developing world, but global emissions did not increase in 2014–2016

  • China’s emissions fell by 2% (but are still triple its 2000 emissions)

  • India doubled its emissions from 2000 to 2016

  • U.S. and other developed countries (OECD) reduced their emissions by more than 9%

• Energy CO2 per capita has gone down 17% for developed countries and 25% for the U.S. since 2000

  • U.S. emissions per capita (15.7 mt/person) are twice the other OECD countries’ (7.7 mt/person), 2½ times China’s (6.2), and 9 times India’s (1.7)

  • Global emissions per capita were 4.4 mt/person in 2016, up 13% since 2000, but have not grown since 2010

• Reasons for reduced growth of CO2 emissions are lower growth of energy consumption due to higher efficiency, substituting natural gas for coal, and greater use of renewable energy

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• Few official forecasts envision the prospect of stagnant or declining emissions

• The IPCC developed several scenarios, called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), for emissions and resulting CO2 concentrations

  • RCP 2.6 requires a dramatic reduction of emissions to zero by 2080, which would keep CO2 concentrations to 400–450 ppm

  • RCP 8.5 doubles emissions by 2050 and increases CO2 concentration to 1000 ppm by 2100

• Cumulative CO2 emissions need to be kept under 3000 Gt to achieve 430–480 ppm and a 50% chance of limiting temperature increase to 2°C

• Maximum emissions of energy-related CO2 that could be emitted between 2011 and 2100 without exceeding the 2°C increase is estimated to be 630–1180 Gt CO2

• The world needs to limit future CO2 emissions to 1000 Gt CO2

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• The world cannot use all of its fossil fuel resources and still live within the 1000 Gt CO2 limit without capture and permanent storage of CO2 emissions

• Global reserves of coal, oil, and natural gas exceed the 1000 Gt CO2 limit by three times

• A scenario that would use three-quarters of current natural gas reserves, one-half of current oil reserves, and one-sixth of coal reserves would leave in the ground 83% of global coal reserves, 50% of oil reserves, and 25% of natural gas reserves

• Carbon capture and storage is one way to reduce fossil fuel CO2 emissions

Energy Sources and Sustainability

Carbon capture and storage (CCS)

• CCS is a technology that captures carbon before it is released into the atmosphere and stores it permanently.

• Hopeful technologies for capture include:

  • Precombustion syngas-hydrogen capture using integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) for coal and hydrogen reforming for natural gas.

  • Postcombustion capture of CO2 from pulverized coal boilers and natural gas combined cycle plants.

  • Oxy-fuel combustion using pure oxygen to produce flue gas with high CO2 concentration.

• Hopeful storage options include:

  • Injecting CO2 into saline formations and aquifers.

  • Deep unminable coal seams.

  • Oil formations for enhanced oil recovery (EOR).

  • Depleted oil and gas reservoirs.

• Projects under development aim to demonstrate technical and economic feasibility.

Examples of CCS projects

• Canada's SaskPower Boundary Dam coal power plant retrofit:

  • Began in late 2014.

  • 95% postcombustion CO2 capture totaling 1 million tonnes per year (Mt/yr).

  • CO2 transported 66 km via pipeline.

  • CO2 injected into oilfields to increase recovery.

• W.A. Parish Petra Nova project in Houston:

  • Developed by NRG Energy.

  • Online since early 2017.

  • Designed for 90% postcombustion capture of 1.6 Mt/yr CO2.

  • CO2 transported via 82-mile pipeline for onshore EOR.

• Kemper County IGCC power plant in Mississippi:

  • Designed for 65% CO2 capture of 3.5 Mt/y.

  • CO2 to be transported via 60-mile pipeline for onshore EOR.

  • Project failed, costing $7.5 billion and being $4 billion over budget.

  • Plant owner Southern Company decided to switch the plant to natural gas.

Other CCS demonstration projects

• There are 18 other CCS demonstration projects in the planning stages worldwide.

• Most believe that there is no climate-friendly scenario for fossil fuels without CCS.

• CCS continues to face technical and cost issues and weak financial incentives.

Climate Change, 1000 Gt CO2 Limit, and Stranded Fossil Fuel Reserves

Fuel reserves and CO2 emissions

• Coal:

  • Global reserves: 872 × 10^9 tonnes.

  • Global production: 7.9 × 10^9 tonnes/yr.

  • CO2 emission coefficient: 2.24 tCO2/tonne.

  • CO2 emissions from total reserves: 1955 Gt CO2.

  • CO2 emissions from limited use of reserves (1/6, 1/2, 3/4): 325 Gt CO2.

  • Years limited reserves last at current production levels: 19 years (112 years at full reserves).

  • Stranded reserves with limited reserves case (1/6, 1/2, 3/4): 726 × 10^9 tonnes.

• Oil:

  • Global reserves: 1.65 × 10^12 bbl.

  • Global production: 33 × 10^9 bbl/yr.

  • CO2 emission coefficient: 0.43 tCO2/bbl.

  • CO2 emissions from total reserves: 709 Gt CO2.

  • CO2 emissions from limited use of reserves (1/6, 1/2, 3/4): 350 Gt CO2.

  • Years limited reserves last at current production levels: 25 years (50 years at full reserves).

  • Stranded reserves with limited reserves case (1/6, 1/2, 3/4): 825 × 10^9 bbl.

• Natural gas:

  • Global reserves: 7.31 × 10^15 ft^3.

  • Global production: 120 × 10^12 ft^3/yr.

  • CO2 emission coefficient: 54.4 t/10^6 ft^3.

  • CO2 emissions from total reserves: 397 Gt CO2.

  • CO2 emissions from limited use of reserves (1/6, 1/2, 3/4): 300 Gt CO2.

  • Years limited reserves last at current production levels: 45 years (60 years at full reserves).

  • Stranded reserves with limited reserves case (1/6, 1/2, 3/4): 1.83 × 10^15 ft^3.

Note: This information is from the EBSCOhost database and was printed on 1/26/2024.

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Local and Regional Air Pollution

• Fossil fuel combustion is the major source of carbon dioxide emissions and air pollutants.

• Major air pollutants linked to fossil fuel combustion include fine particulate matter (PM), sulfur oxides (SOX), nitrogen oxides (NOX), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), and toxic metals like mercury.

• In the United States, 78% of major air pollutants in 2013 were from fuel combustion, down from 90% in 2006.

• Emissions of air pollutants in the United States have been reduced through technological controls and slow growth of fuel combustion.

• Between 2000 and 2014, there has been a significant drop in CO emissions (42%), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) (18%), SOx (69%), NOx (41%), and direct PM2.5 (32%).

• Power plants and industry are major sources of SOx, PM, NOx, and toxic pollutants like mercury.

• Vehicles are major contributors of CO, VOCs, and NOx.

• Emission reductions in the U.S. have led to improved ambient air quality, but a quarter of the population still lived in areas not meeting clean air standards in 2014.

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Fuel Extraction, Transport, and Other Impacts

• Air pollution and climate change are not the only negative impacts of fossil fuel use.

• Fuel extraction, processing, and transport can have significant impacts on the environment and human health.

• Unconventional resources like oil sands, shale gas, deep water oil, and arctic deposits pose greater risks.

• Mountaintop removal mining of coal in U.S. Appalachia has serious impacts, including destruction of streams, habitats, and human health effects.

• Coal processing and ash disposal can lead to breaches, spills, and toxic sludge.

• In 2008, the TVA Kingston Plant coal ash slurry pond break in Tennessee spilled 300 million gallons of potentially toxic sludge.

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• The World Health Organization estimates that 7 million people died prematurely in 2012 due to air pollution, with 56% linked to indoor air pollution and 44% to outdoor air pollution.

• Air pollution in China is a primary reason for its policies on improved efficiency and renewable energy development.

• Developing unconventional resources increases risks to the environment and human health.

• Billions of people in developing nations are exposed to hazardous air pollution primarily caused by the combustion of fossil fuels.

Energy Sources and Sustainability

• Coal ash slurry pond breach at Duke Energy's plant in North Carolina

  • Sent 35 million gallons of toxic slurry into the Dan River

• Freedom Industries facility leaked 7500 gallons of coal processing toxic chemicals into the Elk River

  • Created a "do-not-use" advisory for 300,000 residents in Charleston, West Virginia

• Risks of spills from deep water oil drilling

  • 2010 BP Deep Water Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico

    • Discharged 4.9 million barrels of crude oil

    • Migrating oil washed up on beaches from Louisiana to Florida's Panhandle

    • BP paid $60 billion in penalties and settlements

• Environmental challenges of Canadian oil sands

  • Extraction and processing of "dirty oil"

  • Royal Canadian Expert Panel called for greater attention to reclamation and monitoring impacts

• Impacts of hydraulic fracturing for shale gas and tight oil

  • Contamination threats to water supplies and resources

  • Leakage of potent GHG methane

  • Earthquakes caused by injection of fracking sand-water-chemical slurry and wastewater

• Risks of fuel transport by coal hauling trucks, oil tanker trains, and oil and gas pipelines

  • Increase in oil tanker railcars and accidents

  • Major accidents in Mount Carbon, West Virginia; Lynchburg, Virginia; and Quebec

• Protests over massive pipeline projects in the U.S.

  • Keystone pipeline, Dakota Access pipeline, and natural gas pipelines from the Marcellus shale region

• All sources of energy have associated impacts on human health and the environment

• Different energy sources have varying types and degrees of impact

• Nuclear power has negligible carbon emissions but has risks and uncertainties regarding radioactive materials

• Biofuel production poses land and water impacts associated with intensive agriculture

• Wind power can affect bird mortality and aesthetics

• Large-scale solar energy systems can affect sensitive ecosystems

Nuclear Power: Once Great Hope, Now in Decline

• Nuclear power seen as critical noncarbon energy source

• Seen as a solution to meet growing energy demand and reduce carbon emissions

• Risks and uncertainties regarding radioactive materials and their potential release into the environment

• Nuclear power now in decline

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• Nuclear industry in decline

  • Fukushima nuclear meltdown in 2011 was a major blow

  • Aging plants, decommissioning concerns, limited investment, cost overruns, and waste management uncertainties

• Decline in capacity and generation

  • 402 operating reactors in 2016, 36 fewer than peak in 2002

  • Total installed capacity peak in 2010 at 367 GW has fallen to 348 GW

  • Annual nuclear electricity generation dropped from 2660 TWh in 2006 to 2441 TWh in 2015

  • Global nuclear share of electricity generation dropped from 17.6% in 1996 to 10.7% in 2015

• Shutdowns outnumbering startups

  • More shutdowns than startups since 2011, partly due to Fukushima

• New construction delays

  • 58 reactors under construction in mid-2016, but many face uncertainties

  • Some projects have been under construction for more than 20 years

  • Construction delays and cost overruns for projects in the U.S.

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• Slow adoption of new designs

  • Most reactors in operation use Gen II designs from the 1970s and 1980s

  • Gen III, Gen III+, and Gen IV designs have advanced technologies and improvements

  • Dominated by French AREVA, EDF, Canadian AECL, and U.S.-Japanese companies GE-Hitachi and Westinghouse

• Aging reactors and decommissioning

  • Limited nuclear development in the past 20 years has led to an aging nuclear fleet

  • Plant licenses being extended, but aging plants face increasing costs and competition from natural gas

  • France grants only 10-year license extensions until a permanent waste management system is approved

  • Decommissioning of shut down reactors is a significant task

Note: The nuclear industry has been in decline due to factors such as the Fukushima nuclear meltdown, aging plants, decommissioning concerns, limited investment, cost overruns, and waste management uncertainties. There has been a decline in both capacity and generation, with more shutdowns than startups since 2011. New construction projects have faced delays and cost overruns. The adoption of new designs has been slow, with most reactors still using older Gen II designs. The aging nuclear fleet and the need for decommissioning pose challenges for the industry.

Page 26: Economics of nuclear power and renewables

• Economic challenges facing the future of nuclear power

  • Cost uncertainties of constructing and financing new and existing aging nuclear power plants

  • Competition in the electricity marketplace against natural gas and renewable power sources

• Financial subsidies for nuclear plants in some states to keep them running

• Financial difficulties faced by nuclear operators and builders in "nuclear France"

• Lack of private investment in nuclear due to uncertainties in the industry

• Uncertainties in nuclear waste management

Page 27: Transition to clean energy

• Worldwide transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy

• Replacement of the old economy fueled by coal and oil with one powered by solar and wind energy

• Wind and solar energy as the fastest-growing sources of energy

• Importance of energy efficiency in reducing fossil fuel dependency and promoting sustainability

• Energy intensity and energy conversion efficiency

• Energy functional efficiency and the functions provided by energy

• Energy conservation as behavioral changes to save energy

• Progress in efficiency demonstrated by energy data reviewed in Chapter 1

Page 28: Energy for Sustainability

Global energy consumption

• Global energy consumption is still growing

• Consumption in developed countries has not grown since 2000

• Consumption in developing countries has slowed since 2012

Energy consumption in the US

• Total US energy consumption has been largely unchanged since 1998

• Significant growth in population and economy

• Energy intensity of the economy improved 27% from 2000 to 2016

• Per capita consumption dropped 15% in that period

• From 2007 to 2016, US consumption of liquid fuels dropped 5%, coal dropped 35%, and electricity dropped 2%

Efficiency improvements

• Efficiency improvements are happening, but they have only begun

• More improvements are expected in buildings, vehicles, lighting, appliances, and land use

Toward zero net energy (ZNE) buildings

• Buildings consume more than 40% of global and US energy

• Building energy efficiency improvements have been spurred by technology and policy

• EU Directive 2010/31/EU requires member countries to develop plans to achieve near ZNE in new construction by 2020

• California's 2014 revisions to its Title 24 building code require ZNE for all new residential buildings by 2020 and all new commercial buildings by 2030

• Achieving ZNE requires significant cost-effective efficiency improvements in thermal envelope, lighting, appliance, and HVAC

• Better technologies and building practices have enabled significant improvements in building thermal efficiencies

New construction efficiency

• Most state building codes are based on the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) for new residential and the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) 90.1 model code for new commercial buildings

• Both model codes are upgraded every 3 years

• The 2015 IECC is 45% more efficient than the 2006 version

• The 2016 ASHRAE 90.1 aims to be 45% more efficient than its 2004 version

Energy retrofit of existing buildings

• New construction efficiency will not do enough to reduce energy waste because existing buildings will dominate the building stock for decades

• New protocols for energy retrofit of existing buildings incorporate better building science and techniques applied to new construction

LED lighting advances

• Light-emitting diode (LED) lighting has moved from niche market in 2008 to market driver in 2015 and beyond

• Growth is expected to increase as a result of price reductions and inherent benefits of LED: high efficacy, quality light, and long life

• The expected US electricity savings from solid-state LED lighting in 2030 is equivalent to 150% of all expected US wind generation, 10× expected solar generation, and 20 million households' electricity use

Vehicle efficiency improving

• In the 1990s, vehicle efficiency improvements were offset by increased vehicle size in the US

• Improved technologies and government policies have affected the market

• Average light duty vehicles sold in the US averaged 24.1 mpg in 2013, up 5 mpg since 2004

• There are now 50 hybrid electric vehicle models, accounting for more vehicles on the market

Page 29: Energy Sources and Sustainability

• Plug-in electric drive vehicles have grown significantly in the U.S. market

  • More than 20 models available in the U.S. market

  • Cumulative sales reached 680,000 in 2017

• Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the U.S. have remained stable

  • VMT growth rate dropped in 2008 due to higher fuel prices and recession

  • VMT per capita decreased for the ninth consecutive year in 2013

  • Slight increase in VMT in 2014-2016 due to cheap gas

• Efficiency standards have led to technology improvements and lower energy consumption

  • Standards in place in 2012 estimated to save consumers $1.1 trillion in energy costs by 2030

  • Huge potential for global energy efficiency improvements, with buildings and power generation having the most unrealized potential

  • U.S. ranks poorly in international energy efficiency ranking

Page 29: Renewable Energy Growing Fast but Still Small Contribution

• Renewable energy production has seen significant growth worldwide

  • Wind power capacity increased by 10 times from 2004 to 2016

  • Solar power capacity increased by 76 times from 2004 to 2016

  • Biomass power capacity increased by 2.5 times from 2004 to 2016

  • Bioethanol production quadrupled and biodiesel increased 10 times

• Annual investment in renewable energy increased from less than $40 billion in 2004 to $329 billion in 2015

• Renewable energy's contribution to total global energy is still small compared to fossil fuels

  • Only about 3% comes from renewable power and biofuels

  • 4% comes from biomass and geothermal heat

  • 4% comes from hydropower

Page 29: Global Wind and Solar Energy

• Wind capacity grew on average 16% per year from 2004 to 2016

  • China accounted for 45% of wind capacity additions in 2016

  • China has 46% of cumulative world capacity, compared to 22% in the U.S. and 14% in Germany

• Solar capacity grew at 38% per year from 2004 to 2016

  • Dramatic reduction in the cost of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules spurred growth

  • Europe dominated solar expansion from 2005 to 2012, but growth has slowed since then

  • China is the world leader in solar capacity with 26% in 2016

  • The U.S., Japan, and India also have significant solar capacity

Page 31: Energy Sources and Sustainability

• Wind power growth in the U.S. has been influenced by federal production tax credits (PTCs)

  • Annual fluctuations reflect expiration and temporary renewals of PTCs

  • Wind generating capacity is less than 10% of total U.S. generating capacity in 2016

• Solar PV capacity in the U.S. grew from 2.1 GW in 2010 to 40.4 GW in 2016

  • 62% of the capacity is utility-scale systems, while 38% is distributed residential and commercial systems

  • California has more than half of all U.S. solar capacity

• Wind accounted for 32% of total U.S. capacity additions in 2016, followed by natural gas at 33%

• Coal capacity has been declining, with 53 GW retired since 2002

• Global capacity additions of wind and solar exceeded 60% of total additions in 2015

Page 31: Biomass Energy

• Global use of biomass energy is significant

• Biomass resources include food, feed, materials, chemical stock, and energy

• Global energy from biomass totals 53 quadrillion Btu (quads), or about 10% of global energy demand

• More than half of the biomass energy is used for traditional biomass cooking and heating

• "Modern bioenergy" includes heat, biofuels, and electricity

Page 32: Other Renewables: Hydroelectric and Geothermal

• Global hydropower capacity reached 1064 GW in 2015

• China has 28% of the world's hydropower capacity, followed by Brazil, the U.S., and Canada

• China has the largest hydropower projects, including the Three Gorges Dam and Xiluodu project

• Brazil's Itaipu project produces about 100 TWh per year, similar to the Three Gorges Dam

• Global biofuels production experienced significant growth from 2002 to 2010, but slowed down afterward

• The growth of bioethanol in the U.S. has been hindered by low petroleum prices and slow progress in developing cost-effective technologies for producing ethanol from nonfood cellulosic materials

Page 33: Energy Sources and Sustainability

• Geothermal resources provided about 151 TWh of energy in 2015

  • Split evenly between electricity and direct heating and cooling

• Geothermal power generating capacity totals 13.2 GW

  • Growing at about 3% per year

• Countries with the most geothermal capacity: U.S. (27%), Philippines (14%), Indonesia (11%)

• Countries with the most direct use of geothermal heat: China (28%), Turkey (13%), Japan (10%), Iceland (9%)

• Geothermal heat pumps not included in direct use

Page 33: Big Private and Public Investment in Renewables

• Global private and public investment in renewable energy

  • Hit a record $318 billion in 2011

  • Dropped by about 10% per year in 2012 and 2013

  • Rebounded in 2014-2015 to $349 billion

• Decline in investment in Europe and U.S., while China's investment continued to grow

• Slowed growth in investment due to declining prices for renewable capacity

• Investment remained at about $300 billion per year from 2011 to 2016

• Annual clean energy capacity grew 70% in that period

Page 33: Summary

• Sustainable energy requires patterns of energy sources, production, and use that support society's present and future needs with least life-cycle economic, environmental, and social costs and consequences

• Current patterns of energy use are not sustainable

• Dependency on oil and fossil fuels poses risks related to supply, price volatility, climate change, air pollution, and impacts on human health, economy, and environment

• Need to reduce carbon emissions to mitigate climate change

• Transition to low-carbon energy is the best bet

• Nuclear power is in decline due to economic, political, and social obstacles

• Global and U.S. energy consumption growth has slowed due to improvements in energy efficiency

• Renewable energy development is surging globally and in the U.S.

• Wind power capacity doubles every 4 years

• Solar energy applications double every 2 years

• Energy patterns are not sustainable, but there are signs of hope for the transformation to sustainable energy

• Future