Chapter 6 – The Politics of Public Opinion (Comprehensive Study Notes)

Measuring Political Opinion

• Politics allocates scarce resources and balances liberties/rights; disagreements about how lead to differing political opinions.
• Political scientists collect and analyze public opinion data to map these differences.
• Example (Figure 6.1): Governor Mitt Romney’s 2012 “Super Tuesday” polls—his own campaign’s surveys predicted victory, but external polls differed, highlighting why methodology matters.

Public Opinion: Definition & Significance

• Public opinion = the aggregate of popular views about a person, event, or idea.
• Individual opinion ≠ entire public; researchers need systematic tools to infer the larger view.

Political Socialization: Agents & Process

• Political socialization = lifelong learning of political norms/practices via interaction.
• Begins in early childhood—before formal civics lessons, children absorb parental & community views (Figure 6.2: five-year-old assisting at polls; sailor handing flag to child).
• Agents of political socialization:
  • Family, friends, religious leaders, teachers, coworkers, media, political elites, societal institutions.
  • Each agent supplies information cues that shape ideology.

Intergenerational Partisanship (Figure 6.4)

• Empirical finding: parents’ party loyalty strongly predicts children’s.
  • 31\% of children with two Democratic parents become strong Democrats.
  • Mirror image for Republicans: 32\% become strong Republicans when both parents are GOP.
  • Mixed or inconsistent parental signals → higher probability of pure independents.
• Significance: family acts as a primary filter for political identity; later agents often reinforce or challenge these early cues.

Political Ideology: Formation & Evolution

• Ideology = set of attitudes/beliefs about political theory & policy.
• Usually stable; only major life shocks (war, recession, personal crises) or adulthood experiences (college, employment) shift core ideology.
• Age cohort effect: younger generations often more socially liberal due to distinct formative events.

Political Polarization

• Definition: growing alignment of beliefs with party identity; positions become more extreme/consistent.
• Data (Figure 6.3): Average Democratic vs. Republican gap on 48 value questions was 10\% in 1987, rose to 18\% after 25 years.
• Polarization hampers compromise and policy innovation.

Media Bias & Polarization

• Two content types:
  • Overt: openly partisan commentary (e.g., explicitly conservative talk radio).
  • Covert: slanted information claimed to be neutral; can subtly shape attitudes.
• Selective exposure—the tendency to consume congenial outlets—feeds echo chambers.
• Visual example (Figure 6.5): identical Baltimore 2015 events labeled “uprising” vs. “riots,” illustrating framing bias.

Guns vs. Butter Debate

• Classic budget trade-off: defense spending (guns) vs. social programs (butter).
• Limited resources => zero-sum; ideological camps mobilize around priorities.
• Polarization lowers probability of bipartisan solutions.

Spectrum of Political Ideology (Figure 6.6)

• Ordered continuum: Communism → Socialism → Liberalism → Center → Conservatism → Fascism
  • Communism: common ownership; state force; equality focus.
  • Socialism: state ensures basic services/equal opportunity; progressive taxation.
  • Classical Liberalism: maximal individual liberty; minimal gov’t.
  • Modern Liberalism (U.S.): civil liberties + regulated economy for equity.
  • Classical Conservatism: monarchy/church authority; rule of law.
  • Modern Conservatism (U.S.): free markets, limited state, personal liberty (with traditional social values).
  • Fascism: totalitarian control of economy, society, culture.
• In U.S. discourse, left wing → equality, right wing → control/order (Figure 6.5 & 6.15 visual aids).

Polling: Measuring Public Opinion

• Poll = series of structured questions posed to sample; responses analyzed statistically.
• Mistakes (Figure 6.8): 1948 Chicago Daily Tribune erroneously headlined “Dewey Defeats Truman.”

Polling Methodology

• Scientific poll steps:
  1. Identify topic.
  2. Define population & draw sample.
  3. Write/validate neutral questions.
  4. Contact respondents.
  5. Obtain adequate usable responses.
  6. Analyze data.
  7. Report results.
• Non-scientific straw polls skip rigor; produce unreliable results.

Samples

• Random sample: every population member has equal selection probability.
• Representative sample: reflects population’s demographic profile.
• Law of diminishing returns: once representativeness achieved, bigger n marginally lowers error but raises cost.
• Demographic screeners (ZIP code, age, education, etc.) administered early to weight or stratify.

Question Design & Push Polls

• Good questions: clear, simple, unbiased, non-leading.
• Leading question: nudges toward desired response.
• Push poll: intentionally biased, blends polling with negative campaigning, aims to change opinion rather than measure.

Margin of Error

• Statistical range indicating potential divergence between sample result and true population value.
• Example: Election poll—Candidate A 52\% vs. Candidate B 48\%, margin \pm 5\% → race statistically tied (difference 4\% < 5\%).
• Lower margin = higher confidence; achieved by larger or higher-quality samples.

Polling Technology & Challenges

• Modes: in-person, mail, telephone, Internet, social media, SMS.
• Mode effect: different groups engage differently (e.g., younger respondents more reachable online).
• Verification issues: telephone & mail can limit duplicates; digital modes vulnerable to bots and repeat answers.
• Figure 6.11: California Proposition 19 (2010) polling divergence—live interviewer vs. computer interviews produced opposite predictions.

Polling Problems

• Knowledge deficits: respondents unaware of topic.
• Social desirability: giving socially approved answers (e.g., underreporting unpopular opinions).
• Sample/mode mismatch, manipulation, analysis errors, high margin of error—all reduce validity.

The Cellphone Problem

• Mobile numbers are non-geographic; area code ≠ residence.
• <35-year-olds often cellphone-only, decline unknown calls, prefer text.
• Do-Not-Call lists & call-blocking hamper reaching representative youth sample.

Factors Influencing Personal Political Opinion

• Cognitive elements: attitudes, beliefs, identity, knowledge.
• Social context: family, friends, elites, media, geography.
• Resources: education, income, time.
• Life experiences: employment, discrimination, war, recession.

Effects of Public Opinion on Politics and Elections

• Favorability polls can mobilize/demobilize voters.
• Horse-race coverage: media focus on standings rather than substance, may distort perceptions.
• Bandwagon effect: voters rally to perceived winner; high-polling candidate gains coverage & money (Figure 6.16: Trump 2016 primary dominance).
• Public opinion evolves (Figure 6.13): dramatic shifts on same-sex marriage & immigration over past 20 years.

Approval for U.S. Political Institutions

• Diffuse support: general legitimacy faith remains high.
• President: honeymoon spike then gradual decline; specific events (wars, crises) create bumps (Figure 6.14: Obama trajectory).
• Congress: volatile; typical window 20\%–50\% with post-9/11 peak >80\% (Figure 6.15).
• Supreme Court: consistently highest approval, but controversial social rulings lower ratings.

Budget Cut Preferences

• Voters rarely support reductions in personally beneficial programs (e.g., Social Security, healthcare).
• Illustrates self-interest bias in fiscal attitudes.

Key Case Studies & Historical Examples

• 1948 Truman upset → sampling/technology errors.
• 2010 Prop 19 mode effects.
• 2012 Romney internal vs. external polls.
• 2015 Obama gun-control speech after Umpqua shooting (Figure 6.17) – policy window activation.
• 2016 Trump media saturation – bandwagon & horse-race synergy.

Ethical & Practical Implications

• Accurate polling vital for democratic accountability, campaign strategy, and governance legitimacy.
• Misleading polls can suppress turnout, skew donations, or erode trust.
• Media framing & bias magnify polarization; ethical journalism demands transparency about methodology & ideological stance.

Connections to Foundational Principles

• Link to First Amendment: free press enables opinion measurement but also carries responsibility to avoid covert propaganda.
• Federalist concern (Madison): factions vs. public good—polarization echoes this tension.
• Budget trade-offs (guns vs. butter) tie into constitutional “provide for the common defense” vs. “promote the general welfare.”

Formulas & Statistical Reminders (LaTeX)

• Margin of Error (approx.): MoE=z\times \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}, where z = critical value, p = sample proportion, n = sample size.
• Confidence level 95\% → z \approx 1.96.
• Random sampling requirement: P(selection)=\frac{1}{N} for each of N population members.

Study Tips

• Memorize poll methodology steps & reasons each matters.
• Be able to define, exemplify, and critique polarization & media bias.
• Practice calculating margin of error.
• Relate ideological spectrum positions to concrete policy stances (taxes, defense, welfare).
• Use historical polling misfires as cautionary tales for exam essay examples.