2023: Approximately 7.9 billion people, more than double the population since 1965.
2050: Projected 9.8 billion people. The question is raised whether the planet can support this many people and if everyone would have the same level of support.
Exponential Growth of Human Population
Growth rate is determined by the formula: Growth : rate = Birth : rate – Death : rate
Major factors determining population size.
Ecology
Ecology is the study of the interactions of living things with each other and their environment.
Arithmetic and Exponential Growth
Demonstrates how populations grow.
Limits to Population Growth
Asks whether a species population can grow unlimitedly.
Population size is affected by birth rate, death rate, resources, competition, interactions with other species and conditions.
Limits to Population Growth: Carrying Capacity
Carrying capacity: the maximum population size that can be supported indefinitely in a given environment.
Populations may grow exponentially but are limited by environmental resources such as food, water, shelter, and space.
No population can grow unlimitedly indefinitely because resources are finite.
Exponential vs. Logistic Growth
Exponential growth: Occurs in populations not limited by environmental resources before reaching their carrying capacity.
Logistic growth: Occurs in populations limited by environmental resources as they approach their carrying capacity.
K = carrying capacity
Complex Growth Patterns
Other more complex growth patterns can be observed but they also have to do with carrying capacity
Density-Dependent vs. Density-Independent Factors
Density-dependent factors: Influence population growth rates based on population size (density).
Density-independent factors: Influence population growth rates regardless of population size (density).
Density-Dependent Factors
Population-limiting factors that increase with population size: Limited food supply, increased risk of disease, increase in waste levels.
Results in: Decrease in birth rates and/or increase in death rates.
Density-Independent Factors
Influence population growth rates regardless of population size:
Droughts
Temperature extremes
Natural disasters
The severity of effects may depend on population size; for example, competition for resources increases if a population is already close to carrying capacity and conditions worsen.
Limits to Population Growth for Humans
1960s: Highest population growth rate at 2.1\%. Current growth rate is 1.1\%.
Death rates continue to decline, and birth rates are declining (by choice).
Carrying Capacity for Humans
The question of when we will reach carrying capacity is raised, with a range of future projections; this is difficult to predict.
Resources and Competition
Critical factors to determine how far away we are from reaching carrying capacity.
Net primary productivity (NPP): the amount of vegetable matter produced in a given amount of time.
Human food resources depend on the Net primary productivity (NPP)
Net Primary Productivity
The amount of vegetable matter produced in a given amount of time. Human food resources depend on net primary productivity.
Signs Indicating Human Population Is Not Near Carrying Capacity Yet
Enough food is produced to feed around 11 billion people.
We currently use between 1/4 to 1/3 of the total land Net Primary Productivity.
The maximum Net Primary Productivity of the Earth could theoretically support around 21 billion people if humans were solely supported by photosynthetic products.
Essential Resources
Other resources besides food are essential to sustain populations:
Clean water
Clean air
Energy for heating, producing, and preserving food
Resource use produces pollution, which affects air and water quality.
Earth's Water Distribution
Freshwater accounts for 2.5\%, oceans 96.5\%, and other saline water 0.9\%.
Of freshwater, glaciers and ice caps make up 68.7\%, groundwater 30.1\%, and surface/other freshwater 1.2\%.
Non-Renewable Energy Resources
We rely on non-renewable energy resources: one-time stock resources that cannot be easily replaced, such as:
Fossil fuels: buried remains of ancient plants transformed by heat and pressure.
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Use of fossil fuels depends on population size and average lifestyle.
American Use of Resources
Americans make up 5\% of Earth’s population but consume 24\% of global energy.
Consume 815 billion food calories per day, which is 200 billion more calories than needed (enough to feed 80 million additional people).
Resource Consumption Comparison
The average American uses as much as:
2 Japanese or Spaniards
3 Italians
6 Mexicans
13 Chinese
31 Indians
128 Bangladeshis
307 Tanzanians
370 Ethiopians
Energy Consumption Comparison
The World Bank (2011) stated that 3.7 billion people (roughly 50\% of the total world population) consume 11\% less energy than the US alone.
Factors Impacting Human Population
Wars
Disease: Flu, HIV, Ebola, Covid (e.g., the 1918-1919 flu pandemic killed about 5\% of the total world population).
Natural disasters (random?)
Human Population Growth Rate
1800: 1 billion people
1930: 2 billion people
1970: 4 billion people
Current growth rate: ~1.2\% per year
Current population: ~7.9 billion people
86 million people added each year: more than combined populations of California, Texas, and New York.
250,000 people added every day.
Three people added every second.
Growth : rate = Birth : rate – Death : rate
Demographic Transition
The period when birth rates are dropping toward lowered death rates.
Pre-industrial revolution: high birth and death rates.
18th century (industrialization): deaths decreased due to advanced disease treatment and prevention.
Transition time affects population size.
Developed countries: short transition, low growth.
Less developed countries remain in demographic transition.
Signs of Not Reaching Carrying Capacity for Humans
The rate of population growth decreases as a consequence of lack of resources, leading to more deaths and fewer births.
For humans, death rates continue to decline (resources not limiting yet).
In developed countries, birth rates are declining (by choice).
Estimated World Water Use
Presents a graph of estimated world water use over time, broken down by reservoir losses, municipal use, industry use, and agriculture.
Population Dispersion
How organisms are distributed in space:
Clumped distribution
Uniform distribution
Random distribution
Clumped Distribution
High densities in resource-rich areas, low densities elsewhere.
Globally, humans are clumped around resources (waterways).
Plants and animals clump around food and energy sources.
Uniform Distribution
Spacing between individuals tends to be equal.
Examples: spacing between human houses on a local level, territorial species.
Random Distribution
Shown by nonsocial species with the ability to tolerate a wide range of conditions.
No compelling factor brings individuals together or pushes them apart.
Trees with windblown seeds.
Population Definition
All the individuals of a species in a given area.
Studying a Population
To study a population, one must consider:
What is the size of the population you start with?
What factors affect the birth rate?
What factors affect the death rate?
Population : size = Birth : rate – Death : rate
Measuring Population Size
Population ecologists normally have to estimate the size of a population of interest.
Direct census: Individuals are counted or surveyed.
Mark-recapture method: Estimates the size of more mobile or inconspicuous species.
Mark-Recapture Method Example
Capture and mark 100 salamanders.
Release them into the pond.
In a second visit to the pond, take another sample of 100 salamanders from the lake.
If 50 of the 100 salamanders were already marked
→ 50\% of the sampled population was marked
→ the whole population should be around 200.
Exponential vs. Logistic Growth
Exponential growth: Pattern of growth seen in populations that are not limited by environmental resources (before reaching their carrying capacity).
Logistic growth: Pattern of growth seen in populations limited by environmental resources (when they reach their carrying capacity).
Limits to Population Growth for Humans
1960s: 2.1\% (highest population growth rate).
Current growth rate = 1.1\%. Human population still growing but closer to a stable number.
Three scenarios projected by UN: High-growth, Medium-growth, Low-growth (Very difficult to predict).