Conflict Analysis in the Caucasus: Key Points and Observations Olessya Vardanian

Al Qaizi and Discrimination

• Muslims in Al Qaizi face discrimination.

• Problems exist for Hasids and Salazidians because they are formally part of the Georgian Church but don't recognize it.

• Russia doesn't allow local clerics to become proper clerics, hindering their service.

• This creates problems, including a "paisa" declaring independence.

Banning of Jehovah's Witnesses in Saudi Arabia

• Saudi Arabia banned Jehovah's Witnesses.

Introduction of the Speaker

• The speaker is introduced as an expert, though Tom Trier at the Special Representative's office is also knowledgeable about peacebuilding.

Speaker's Background

• The speaker is 39 years old, born and grew up in Russia.

• Father is from an Armenian populated region in Georgia.

• The speaker hasn't worked on Guadalajpe (likely a region or issue) for over 20 years and plans to research it this summer.

• Spent part of life in journalism, including with The New York Times during the 2008 war.

• Covered the South Caucasus region for six years, focusing on Georgia.

• Studied at King's College London, War Department.

Transition from Journalism to Conflict Analysis

• After February (likely a specific event), the speaker changed focus to conflicts.

• Worked with Radio Liberty, allowing regular contact with Salazid and at Kaiser.

• Covered crisis situations and major developments, especially in Kaiser.

Work at Crisis Group

• Joined Crisis Group, initially as a fellow.

• Main reason for joining was to work on the Bornikarabakh/Nagorno-Karabakh issue.

• Nagorno-Karabakh: a small enclave formally part of Azerbaijan but populated by ethnic Armenians.

• The speaker joined after the 2016 major escalation and did fieldwork and advocacy related to Nagorno-Karabakh.

• Left Crisis Group in September due to feeling stuck and not developing.

Current Activities

• Cannot found own organization due to Georgian legislation and new restrictions related to democracy work.

• Doing work for the European Union and other projects not possible while at Crisis Group.

• Plans to pursue a PhD at George Mason University starting in August, focusing on complex issues.

Reflections on International Organizations

• Big names like International Crisis Group, Human Rights Watch, and Amnesty International aren't always as smart or advanced as they seem.

• Observed people within these organizations struggling with basic tasks, questioning their expertise and hiring.

• This contributes to a situation where civil society's purpose is questioned.

• The international crisis impacts the effectiveness of big organizations locally.

• Important to consider the reason for doing the work beyond salary, focusing on impact.

Impact and Individual Influence

• Impact often depends on individuals, even with fancy titles and large organizations.

• Individuals need to effectively communicate recommendations and advocate for policies.

• The global situation is changing; individuals with a strong social media presence can have more impact than large organizations with billion-dollar budgets.

• Civil society is undergoing a crisis.

• Need to build networks and find good connections.

• Hard work and diplomas are no longer enough.

Changes in Crisis Group's Operations

• In 2016, Crisis Group closed its offices in Bilisi (Tbilisi), which covered three countries.

• Having a Crisis Group card was not enough to get people to speak or listen.

• Impact comes from personal feeling, passion, and dedication.

Achieving Impact

• Biggest impact often involves locating one instrumental person.

• Important to work with officials and diplomats, but focus on finding the key individual.

• Played an instrumental role in setting up negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh.

• Contributed to policies of the US government and allocation of funds for Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the conflict.

• Participated in several negotiations.

• Most important achievement: seeing people repairing their roofs after a ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan after 30 years.

• Advocated for the inclusion of certain parts in the agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan on border demarcation.

• Much of the work goes unnoticed, without medals or diplomas.

• A personal rule is to not speak about achievements to maintain the ability to contribute further.

• Better for people to not know your name or what you're doing.

• Publicity can create problems, restrict access, and create expectations.

• Better to be under the radar.

Gender Dimension

• Self-confidence is important, especially when dealing with conflicts and security.

• Often ends up in meetings in Brussels as the only woman.

• Easier to establish oneself in Europe than in the South Caucasus, where people ask about marriage and children.

• When traveling to conflict zones, questioned about being in the kitchen instead.

• Being a woman gives more access and a wider perspective, allowing discussion of topics with women that men cannot.

• Can include more gender-related issues in research.

• During the refugee crisis after the exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh, more women spoke than men; women, vulnerable, disabled and elders topics were pushed by diplomats.

• Personal views on the role of women or LGBT issues are kept private in certain contexts (e.g., Nagorno-Karabakh).

• Engages in conversations when questioned about personal life instead of confrontation.

• Over time, people realize expertise in weaponry, topography, and strategic planning.

Rules in the Field

• First rule: don't become the story (don't get arrested, keep threats private).

• Second rule: keep personal beliefs private to allow for conversation and hearing perspectives.

• Sometimes people can be baptized into your values through conversation.

Civil Society and Government Interactions

• Interactions between government and civil society are often bureaucratic (ticking boxes).

• Organizations are invited to meetings just to claim civil society was met, without genuine interest in their input.

• This limits the space for establishing relations and advocating for issues.

• Need interaction with diverse society, not just names.

• Some ambassadors invite groups to retreats for "entertainment" (presentations while they eat), highlighting the focus on names over substance.

Positive Aspects of the Work

• Establishing relationships with officials, people in the field, and diplomats is the best part.

• People invite you because they respect you and know you can make a difference, not because of Crisis Group or The New York Times.

• Maintaining conversations and relations on different fronts.

• Work in academia shouldn't be treated as separate from real life; real life can start at the university.

• Doing niche things can expand and develop.

Conflict Zones in the Former Soviet Union

• Three main conflict zones: Al Qaizi, Sawasidia, and Nagorno-Karabakh.

• All three emerged when the Soviet Union collapsed, though problems existed before.

• Wars occurred in all three places, leading to "frozen conflicts."

• International involvement included peacekeeping forces and negotiation attempts.

• Nagorno-Karabakh: ethnic Armenians lived in Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding regions, while ethnic Azerbaijanis were displaced.

• Abkhazia: majority of ethnic Georgians had to leave; ethnic Abkhazians, Armenians, and Russians stayed.

• Sawasidia: mixed situation with Georgians and ethnic Assyrians; some ethnic Assyrians and Georgians fled.

Challenges of New States

• Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia (as well as Russia) were new states, ill-prepared for independence.

• Lack of leadership and planning for statehood led to problems in the 1990s.

• Georgia had the most dramatic story: Al Qaeda, Swah Ossetia conflict, and civil war.

Georgia's Civil War

• Civil war reflections are still visible today with divides between supporters and opponents of Zviad Gamsakhurdia.

• Georgia was a failed state with no basic services (electricity, security).

• Generation that didn't attend school is now coming to power.

Western Support for Georgia

• Western support, especially from the US, was crucial for Georgia's development.

• The US helped with basic services like electricity supply.

• USAID became prominent after the 2008 war, with the European Union also playing a role.

• The EU provided exams and standards to help build the country's economy.

• Turning away from these supporters is dramatic, considering Georgia's 1990s state.

• Early conflicts in Abkhazia and Swah Ossetia were easy for Georgians due to lack of army and government.

• War in Abkhazia started without parliamentary approval.

• Awful war crimes occurred, impacting future conversations about reconciliation.

International Community's Role

• Georgia had international peacekeepers and UN monitoring in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which were not present in Nagorno-Karabakh.

• Nagorno-Karabakh was left to Armenia and Azerbaijan, leading to drastic militarization.

• The UN Security Council discussed incidents in Abkhazia every six months but not in Nagorno-Karabakh.

• International presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia allowed for continued human contact and conversations between conflicting parties.

• Lack of international involvement in Nagorno-Karabakh led to different conflict evolution without human and moral considerations.

Attempts to Resolve Conflicts

• Numerous attempts to resolve conflicts, mainly involving Russia pushing breakaways back into Georgia.

• Vladimir Putin's rise changed Russian attitude, using breakaways as tools due to Georgia's changing government.

• Georgia failed to seize opportunities for interaction and diplomacy with South Ossetia.

• More interlinkages and communication make fighting harder.

2008 War

• 2008 war: still debated who started it.

• Blame on Jubilee (likely referring to a person or political party) for initiating assault on South Ossetia.

• Speaker witnessed the start of the war while on a train vacation.

• Opposition and parliamentary investigation ongoing.

• The investigation is perceived as a way to ban opposition parties and persecute people.

Impact of the 2008 War

• The 2008 war was a big turning point for Georgia.

• Scary experience with Russian tanks and airplanes.

• Georgian Dream party uses the threat of another war to justify their Russian stance.

• Traumatic for South Ossetia, a small region of 30,000 people.

• The war led to destroyed lives and families.

• Russian recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was a political decision.

• Abkhazia and Savoisiyyah have become increasingly dependent on Russia.

• Russia installed its own candidate for the presidency in Fight Scene, a major development.

Dependency on Russia

• Abkhazia and Savoisiyyah are tentatively becoming more and more dependent on Russia.

• In our city, they openly say they want to be part of Russia.

• Russia has had to ask them to stop, as it's trying to establish good relations with Georgia.

• Northern city wants to merge with a normal city, highlighting the desire for unification.

Differences between Groups

• Abkhazians and South Ossetians have their own languages, different from Georgian.

• South Ossetians speak a dialect of the Osidian language, which is an Iranian language.

• Abkhazian language is completely different from Georgian.

• Soviet policies in Abkhazia, Saucasian, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Jawahedi prioritized Russian language over Georgian language.

• Abkhazia and Savoisiyyah have fought to establish their alphabet.

• Being part of Georgia during the Soviet times allowed for cooperation and language studies in Sour City.

• Even physically, people from these groups appear distinct.

Governance Differences

• During the Soviet time, Al Qaizia had its own government and parliament, while Saucasian and Nagorno Karabakh were autonomous populists.

• The whole debate concerned about the number of seats for different groups in local parliament. The lower level of local governance gave rise to conflict since they didn't have the same level as al Qaizia, but they eventually developed their own elite.

Russia's Influence

• After the 2008 war, Russia flooded the money to rebuilding everything, but most of it went back to Russia.

• Russia sent its own people to govern in Saucasia instead of helping locals develop governance skills.

Georgian Government after the First War

• After the first war, Georgian established legal governments in Abkhazia and parts of South Ossetia.

• Georgian, Afghast, government in Israel continue receiving salaries.

• This government still has a council/parliament, with numbers decreasing over time.

• Tbilisi appoints its own people to these positions, which is symbolic but helps maintain community networks.

Special Envoy

• Georgia continues having a special employee (envoy) between Sufome and Bidissi.

• He deals with crisis situations.

• He's also working on agriculture development projects.

• They do have context on different fronts such as security and medical emergencies.

Future of refugees

• Refugees are in armenia and they won't have any possibility to come back.

• AZE leader is taking delegation to Ustikan Akirat and settling against common church. It's happening and no one is saying word.

Ongoing court sessions

• Court Sessions in baku are going and under AZJ government

• Messaging from this court room is completely controlled.

• AZJ is using whole story on herbal armenians who made them go for work.

Jordan Dream Party

• He argues that Russia had to act because of crazy.

• Potentially going for diplomatic relationship with Moscow will close all conversation with ground or negotiations.

Others recognizing the location

• Russia bought with water drink.

Muslims in Abkhazia face discrimination. Problems exist for Hasids and Salazidians because they are formally part of the Georgian Church but don't recognize it. Russia doesn't allow local clerics to become proper clerics, hindering their service. This creates problems, including a "paisa" declaring independence.

Saudi Arabia banned Jehovah's Witnesses.

Ollesya is introduced as an expert, though Tom Trier at the Special Representative's office is also knowledgeable about peacebuilding.

Ollesya is 39 years old, born and grew up in Russia. Their father is from an Armenian populated region in Georgia. Ollesya hasn't worked on Guadalajpe (likely a region or issue) for over 20 years and plans to research it this summer. They spent part of their life in journalism, including with The New York Times during the 2008 war. Ollesya covered the South Caucasus region for six years, focusing on Georgia. They studied at King's College London, War Department.

After February (likely a specific event), Ollesya changed focus to conflicts. They worked with Radio Liberty, allowing regular contact with Salazid and at Kaiser. They covered crisis situations and major developments, especially in Kaiser.

Ollesya joined Crisis Group, initially as a fellow. The main reason for joining was to work on the Bornikarabakh/Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Nagorno-Karabakh is a small enclave formally part of Azerbaijan but populated by ethnic Armenians. Ollesya joined after the 2016 major escalation and did fieldwork and advocacy related to Nagorno-Karabakh. They left Crisis Group in September due to feeling stuck and not developing.

Ollesya cannot found their own organization due to Georgian legislation and new restrictions related to democracy work. Doing work for the European Union and other projects was not possible while at Crisis Group. They plan to pursue a PhD at George Mason University starting in August, focusing on complex issues.

Big names like International Crisis Group, Human Rights Watch, and Amnesty International aren't always as smart or advanced as they seem. Ollesya observed people within these organizations struggling with basic tasks, questioning their expertise and hiring. This contributes to a situation where civil society's purpose is questioned. The international crisis impacts the effectiveness of big organizations locally. It's important to consider the reason for doing the work beyond salary, focusing on impact.

Impact often depends on individuals, even with fancy titles and large organizations. Individuals need to effectively communicate recommendations and advocate for policies. The global situation is changing; individuals with a strong social media presence can have more impact than large organizations with billion-dollar budgets. Civil society is undergoing a crisis. We need to build networks and find good connections. Hard work and diplomas are no longer enough.

In 2016, Crisis Group closed its offices in Bilisi (Tbilisi), which covered three countries. Having a Crisis Group card was not enough to get people to speak or listen. Impact comes from personal feeling, passion, and dedication.

The biggest impact often involves locating one instrumental person. It's important to work with officials and diplomats, but focus on finding the key individual. Ollesya played an instrumental role in setting up negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh. They contributed to policies of the US government and allocation of funds for Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the conflict. They participated in several negotiations. The most important achievement was seeing people repairing their roofs after a ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan after 30 years. They advocated for the inclusion of certain parts in the agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan on border demarcation. Much of the work goes unnoticed, without medals or diplomas. A personal rule is to not speak about achievements to maintain the ability to contribute further. It's better for people to not know your name or what you're doing. Publicity can create problems, restrict access, and create expectations. It's better to be under the radar.

Self-confidence is important, especially when dealing with conflicts and security. Ollesya often ends up in meetings in Brussels as the only woman. It's easier to establish oneself in Europe than in the South Caucasus, where people ask about marriage and children. When traveling to conflict zones, they are questioned about being in the kitchen instead. Being a woman gives more access and a wider perspective, allowing discussion of topics with women that men cannot. They can include more gender-related issues in research. During the refugee crisis after the exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh, more women spoke than men; women, vulnerable, disabled, and elders topics were pushed by diplomats. Personal views on the role of women or LGBT issues are kept private in certain contexts (e.g., Nagorno-Karabakh). They engage in conversations when questioned about personal life instead of confrontation. Over time, people realize expertise in weaponry, topography, and strategic planning.

The first rule is: don't become the story (don't get arrested, keep threats private). The second rule is: keep personal beliefs private to allow for conversation and hearing perspectives. Sometimes people can be baptized into your values through conversation.

Interactions between government and civil society are often bureaucratic (ticking boxes). Organizations are invited to meetings just to claim civil society was met, without genuine interest in their input. This limits the space for establishing relations and advocating for issues. We need interaction with diverse society, not just names. Some ambassadors invite groups to retreats for "entertainment" (presentations while they eat), highlighting the focus on names over substance.

Establishing relationships with officials, people in the field, and diplomats is the best part. People invite you because they respect you and know you can make a difference, not because of Crisis Group or The New York Times. Maintaining conversations and relations on different fronts is important. Work in academia shouldn't be treated as separate from real life; real life can start at the university. Doing niche things can expand and develop.

Three main conflict zones are: Abkhazia, Sawasidia, and Nagorno-Karabakh. All three emerged when the Soviet Union collapsed, though problems existed before. Wars occurred in all three places, leading to "frozen conflicts." International involvement included peacekeeping forces and negotiation attempts. In Nagorno-Karabakh, ethnic Armenians lived in Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding regions, while ethnic Azerbaijanis were displaced. In Abkhazia, a majority of ethnic Georgians had to leave; ethnic Abkhazians, Armenians, and Russians stayed. Sawasidia is a mixed situation with Georgians and ethnic Assyrians; some ethnic Assyrians and Georgians fled.

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia (as well as Russia) were new states, ill-prepared for independence. Lack of leadership and planning for statehood led to problems in the 1990s. Georgia had the most dramatic story: Al Qaeda, Swah Ossetia conflict, and civil war.

Civil war reflections are still visible today with divides between supporters and opponents of Zviad Gamsakhurdia. Georgia was a failed state with no basic services (electricity, security). A generation that didn't attend school is now coming to power.

Western support, especially from the US, was crucial for Georgia's development. The US helped with basic services like electricity supply. USAID became prominent after the 2008 war, with the European Union also playing a role. The EU provided exams and standards to help build the country's economy. Turning away from these supporters is dramatic, considering Georgia's 1990s state. Early conflicts in Abkhazia and Swah Ossetia were easy for Georgians due to lack of army and government. War in Abkhazia started without parliamentary approval. Awful war crimes occurred, impacting future conversations about reconciliation.

Georgia had international peacekeepers and UN monitoring in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which were not present in Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh was left to Armenia and Azerbaijan, leading to drastic militarization. The UN Security Council discussed incidents in Abkhazia every six months but not in Nagorno-Karabakh. International presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia allowed for continued human contact and conversations between conflicting parties. Lack of international involvement in Nagorno-Karabakh led to different conflict evolution without human and moral considerations.

Numerous attempts have been made to resolve conflicts, mainly involving Russia pushing breakaways back into Georgia. Vladimir Putin's rise changed Russian attitude, using breakaways as tools due to Georgia's changing government. Georgia failed to seize opportunities for interaction and diplomacy with South Ossetia. More interlinkages and communication make fighting harder.

The 2008 war is still debated as to who started it. Blame is on Jubilee (likely referring to a person or political party) for initiating assault on South Ossetia. Ollesya witnessed the start of the war while on a train vacation. Opposition and parliamentary investigation are ongoing. The investigation is perceived as a way to ban opposition parties and persecute people.

The 2008 war was a big turning point for Georgia. It was a scary experience with Russian tanks and airplanes. The Georgian Dream party uses the threat of another war to justify their Russian stance. It was traumatic for South Ossetia, a small region of 30,000 people. The war led to destroyed lives and families. Russian recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was a political decision. Abkhazia and Savoisiyyah have become increasingly dependent on Russia. Russia installed its own candidate for the presidency in Fight Scene, a major development.

Abkhazia and Savoisiyyah are tentatively becoming more and more dependent on Russia. In our city, they openly say they want to be part of Russia. Russia has had to ask them to stop, as it's trying to establish good relations with Georgia. The Northern city wants to merge with a normal city, highlighting the desire for unification.

Abkhazians and South Ossetians have their own languages, different from Georgian. South Ossetians speak a dialect of the Osidian language, which is an Iranian language. The Abkhazian language is completely different from Georgian. Soviet policies in Abkhazia, Saucasian, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Jawahedi prioritized Russian language over Georgian language. Abkhazia and Savoisiyyah have fought to establish their alphabet. Being part of Georgia during the Soviet times allowed for cooperation and language studies in Sour City. Even physically, people from these groups appear distinct.

During the Soviet time, Abkhazia had its own government and parliament, while Saucasian and Nagorno Karabakh were autonomous populists. The whole debate concerned the number of seats for different groups in local parliament. The lower level of local governance gave rise to conflict since they didn't have the same level as Abkhazia, but they eventually developed their own elite.

After the 2008 war, Russia flooded money to rebuild everything, but most of it went back to Russia. Russia sent its own people to govern in Saucasia instead of helping locals develop governance skills.

After the first war, the Georgian government established legal governments in Abkhazia and parts of South Ossetia. The Georgian, Afghast, government in Israel continue receiving salaries. This government still has a council/parliament, with numbers decreasing over time. Tbilisi appoints its own people to these positions, which is symbolic but helps maintain community networks.

Georgia continues having a special employee (envoy) between Sufome and Bidissi. He deals with crisis situations. He's also working on agriculture development projects. They do have context on different fronts such as security and medical emergencies.

Refugees are in Armenia and they won't have any possibility to come back. The AZE leader is taking a delegation to Ustikan Akirat and settling against the common church. It's happening and no one is saying a word.

Court sessions in Baku are going on under the AZJ government. Messaging from this courtroom is completely controlled. AZJ is using the whole story on herbal Armenians who made them go for work.

The Georgian Dream Party argues that Russia had to act because of crazy. Potentially going for a diplomatic relationship with Moscow will close all conversations with the ground or negotiations.

Russia bought water (drink).