Wars_and_Conflicts__1_

WAR AND CONFLICT

• Presented by: Dr. Ramzi

Understanding the Landscape

• Quotes on the importance of understanding the dynamics of separate communities and states shaping global politics.

• Source: Joseph S. Nye Jr. & David A. Welch (2014)

Deaths in State-Based Conflicts

• Data Overview:

  • Civilian and military deaths include only direct violent deaths.

  • Significant casualties reported across regions since 1946.

  • Middle East: Highest casualties. Other regions listed include the Americas, Africa, Europe, and Asia & Oceania.

  • Key Statistics: 500,000+ deaths in the Middle East, declining incidents in Europe & Asia since 2001.

Trends in Active State-Based Conflicts (1946-2020)

• Definition of state-based conflicts: Governed by one or more state entities.

• Data Breakdown:

  • Number of civil conflicts increased with foreign state intervention.

  • Overall trends reflect conflicts diminishing but re-emerging phases in certain regions.

  • Highest levels from the 1970s onward.

Battle Deaths per Conflict

• Average deaths highlighted for different conflict types since 1946:

  • Interstate Wars: Most deadly with substantial casualties.

  • Civil conflicts with foreign intervention: High death toll, but lesser than state-level conflicts.

  • Colonial and imperial conflicts show varying degree of casualty.

  • Note: Deaths stem directly from battle-related events, excluding diseases.

Assumptions About Conflicts

• Abolishing separate states could transform global politics but isn’t impending.

• Nationalism and demands for state separation appear to be increasing.

• The myth that world government could resolve war-related issues.

Historical Combatant Deaths (1800-2011)

• Data on combatant deaths outlining various global wars:

  • World War II: Expected highest fatalities (21-30.8 million).

  • Other wars (Venezuelan, Civil, Korean, etc.) illustrate patterns.

  • Each conflict categorized by type indicating scale and scope.

Number of Wars Over Time

• Trends in civil and interstate wars from 1800 to 2011 presented.

• Peaks in civil wars noted in specific intervals with a drop post-2000.

  • Ongoing war definitions based on mortality counts.

Defining Conflict

• Various definitions encompassing disagreements, struggles for power, and the conscious nature of parties involved.

  • Conflict can manifest at multiple levels—international, national, and organizational.

Causes of War

• Multifaceted causes requiring context-specific understanding:

  • Political: Weak institutions, corruption, exclusion, and identity politics.

  • Socioeconomic: Inequality, exclusion, marginalization, and poverty issues.

  • Resource-Environmental: Greed, scarcity, and unjust exploitation lead to conflict.

Water Scarcity Context

• Different levels of water scarcity influencing geopolitical tensions and conflict potential.

• Ranges from little water scarcity to varying levels of physical and economic scarcity.

The State of Global Peace (2022)

• Evaluation of countries based on their peace levels:

  • Highlighted countries with rising or falling peace rankings, emphasizing geopolitical shifts.

  • Example: Improve/deteriorate statistics provide insights into changing dynamics.

Expanding Global Tensions

• Map overview of ongoing armed conflicts with associated death tolls.

• Major and minor conflicts categorized to reflect the current global landscape.

• Emphasis on the significant threats from state vs state conflicts.

Competition Over Resources

• Factors contributing to conflict:

  • Military expenditure, climate change, marginalization, and illegal trade challenges.

Theoretical Lenses on Warfare

• Human Nature: Realists posit inherent power-seeking behavior drives state actions.

• Anarchy: No central authority leads to self-interested behaviors among states.

• Security Dilemma: Responses to threats often lead to arms races.

• Balance of Power: Imbalances provoke counterbalancing efforts and conflict.

Liberals' Perspective on Conflict

• Lack of interdependence heightens conflict risk.

• Weak institutions fail to mediate disputes, leading to escalation.

• Economic disparities can intensify tensions, urging conflicts.

Constructivism in War Dynamics

• Identifies nationalism and identity issues as precipitating factors of conflict.

• Norms and social constructs challenge existing frameworks, leading to disagreement.

• Recognition of non-state actors influences conflict scenarios and state perceptions.

Theoretical Perspectives on Warfare