Prithish Srinivasan
Dept of Env Sci at Rutgers
There was a psychoda fly problem at Plainfield sewage plant
City approached agricultural college in New Brunswick (now known as SEBS) for help
Prof. Thomas J Headlee (State Entomologist) recommended a team of biologists, microbiologists, etc. to solve the problem
1920 - Act of the NJ State Legislature created the Sewage Substation of the Agricultural Experiment Station
Later, it was called Department of Sanitation
1960s - changed name to Environmental science
Environmental science is about problem solving through bringing people from different fields together
Pollution
Contamination of the environment by a chemical or other agent that is harmful to organisms
Air pollution, water pollution, soil pollution
All matter is made up of chemicals
Some are naturally occuring, some are synthetic
Both can be harmless or deadly
Depends on chemical properties and concentration
Concentration
How much of a component there is within a mixture
Measured by mass or volume
Mass per volume (mg/L) - water, air
Mass per mass (mg/kg) - water, solids
Volume per volume (mL/m^3) - air
Different units used to express the same concept
Most important measurement of pollution
Depending on concentration, may be harmless, helpful or toxic (need to quantify)
Units and measures
M = meter (length)
L = liter (volume)
G = gram (mass)
Expressions of Concentration
% = 1 part per 100 parts
Parts per million, parts per billion
What is 1 ppm?
1 mg/kg in solids
1 mg/L in water
1 mL/m^3 (in air)
Environment = everything around us
Environmental science = interdisciplinary science connecting information and ideas from
Natural sciences - biology, chemistry
Social sciences - economics, politics
Humanities - philosophy
Sustainability
Capacity of Earth’s natural systems and human cultural systems to survive in the long term future
Nature has sustained itself for billions of years by using solar energy, biodiversity, etc
Three principles of sustainability from Natural sciences
Solar energy - Energy that comes from the sun. Provides warmth and fuels photosynthesis.
Biodiversity - Variety of natural systems provides stability.
Chemical cycling - Cycling of elements from the environment to organisms and then back to the environment. Allows life to survive indefinitely on finite resources.
Natural capital
Our lives depend on energy from the sun and on natural services provided by the Earth
Everything that helps to keep a species alive
Natural resources - Useful materials and energy in nature
Natural services - Important nature processes such as renewal of air, water and soil
These services are provided by healthy ecosystems, not a degraded ecosystem
Resources
Anything we obtain from the environment to meet our needs
Inexhaustible - solar and wind energy (no matter how much you use, it’ll always be there instantly)
Renewable resources - forests, fishes, air (It’ll be there, but it’ll take time to renew itself)
Maximum Sustainable Yield - highest rate at which we can use a renewable resource without reducing available supply
Nonrenewable - Oil, coal, natural gas
Human activities can degrade natural capital
Using renewable resources faster than at the rate they’re replaced
Interfering ecosystems with pollution and loss of biodiversity
Solutions to avoid degradation
Scientific, economic and political ways
Other principles of sustainability come from social sciences
Full cost pricing: Include harmful health and environmental costs of goods and services in market prices
Win win solutions - Find solutions that benefit both people and the environment
A responsibility to future generations - we want to preserve the world for our posterity
Ecological footprint - a way to measure how much land and water is needed to support a person
As our ecological footprint grows, we are degrading more of the Earth’s natural capital
Human activities directly affect 83% of earth’s land surface
Species are becoming extinct at least 100 times faster than prehuman times
We are remaking the world to fit humans better, but not in a way that can be sustainable
Ecological deficit - footprint is larger than the world’s ability to support
Total natural capital is going down
IPAT - Environmental impact model
I = P x A x T
Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology
Some tech is beneficial, some tech is harmful
Tragedy of the commons
Individuals, with access to a shared resource, act in their own self-interest through overusing the resource, leading to its depletion
Solution - use resource at a rate well below its sustainable yield
Why do we have environmental problems?
Population growth
Wasteful and unsustainable resource use
Failure to include harmful environmental cost of goods in market
Increasing isolation from nature - Lack of contact with nature
Competing environmental worldviews
Human centered worldview - humans are the most important
Life centered worldview - all species have value
Earth centered worldview - natural capital exists for all species
Poverty - short term survival more important than environmental concerns
Three big ideas
A more sustainable future will require that we
Rely more on energy from the sun and other renewable resources
Protect biodiversity through the preservation of natural capital
Avoid disrupting the earth’s vitally important chemical cycles
We will benefit ourselves and future generations if we commit ourselves to
Finding win win win solutions to our problems
Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire
Compared the loss of water and nutrients from an uncut forest (control site) with one that had been stripped (experimental site)
Stripped site
30-40% more runoff
More dissolved nutrients
More soil erosion
General steps in the scientific method
Identify a problem/make observations
Propose a scientific hypothesis to explain observations
Use the hypothesis to make predictions that can be tested
Test the predictions with further experiments or observations
If result is positive, “accept” hypothesis
Hypothesis
Educated guess to describe what is happening
Based on previous information
Provides testable predictions
Developing a model
Physical/mathematical representation
Used to study complex systems like climate
Tested against new data to evaluate how well it “fits” the real world
Scientific knowledge advances through
Scientists publishing details of methods and results
Peer review
New data and analysis can lead to revised hypotheses
Scientific theory
Well tested and widely accepted hypothesis
Rarely overturned unless new evidence discredits them
Scientific law and the law of nature
A well tested and widely accepted description of what we find happening repeatedly and in the same way of nature
Reliable science
Widely accepted by experts
Tentative science/frontier science
Not yet considered reliable by the scientific community
Unreliable science
Has not been through peer review or has been discredited
Important features of the scientific process
Curiosity
Skepticism
Evaluate evidence and hypotheses using inputs from a variety of reliable sources
Identify and evaluate personal assumptions, biases and beliefs to distinguish facts and opinions before coming to a conclusion
Reproducibility
Peer review
Imagination
Scientists cannot prove or disprove anything completely (metaphysics)
Science establishes high probability
Scientists are not free of their own bias about their own hypotheses
The world is extremely complex
Matter has mass and takes up space
Matter - consists of elements and compounds that are made up of atoms, ions, etc
Elements
Has unique properties that’s determined by their atomic structure
Cannot be broken down into other substances chemically
Law of conservation of matter - matter is not created or destroyed, can undergo physical/chemical changes
Atomic theory
All elements are made up of atoms
Subatomic particles
Nucleus of the atom
Protons - positive
Neutrons - none
Electrons - negative
Atomic number = amount of protons
Not all atoms in an element have the same number of neutrons
This results in atoms with the same atomic number but different weights
These are known as isotopes
Each element has several isotopes
Has tiny differences
Ions
Atom or group of atoms with net positive or negative electrical charge
Formed when electrons are gained or lost
Molecules
Two or more atoms held together by a chemical bond is a molecule
Compounds
Two or more different elements bonded together
Chemical formula
Shows number of each type of atom or ion in a compound
Ionic compounds
Atoms with a net positive and negative charge attract each other to form ionic compounds (NaCl, also known as salt)
Tend to dissolve in water
Covalent compounds
Atoms share electron pairs in order to become more stable and form molecules (H2O)
Physical changes
Changing from a solid to a liquid to a gas
Energy is used or released
No change in chemical composition
Chemical change
Change in chemical composition
Ionic or covalent bonds broken and formed
Energy is used or released
Bonds between atoms contain a certain amount of energy
Energy is released when a bond is broken
Energy is used to make new bonds
Nuclear change
Radioactive decay - important for generating geothermal energy
Nuclear fusion - source of solar energy
Nuclear fission
Big ideas
Law of conservation of matter - you cannot throw anything away
We cannot do anything with matter, we can only change it from one physical state or chemical form to another
Organic compounds
Contain carbon atoms with carbon-carbon or carbon-hydrogen bonds
Covalent bonds
Types
Hydrocarbons
Plastics
Pesticides
Pharmaceuticals
Hydrocarbons
Contain only carbon and hydrogen atoms
May be straight, branched or rings
Physical properties depend on size and shape
1-4 carbon atoms are gases
5-20 carbon atoms are liquids
Organic compounds
Many types of organic molecules make up our cells
Fatty acids
Simple carbohydrates
Amino acids
Nucleotides
Organized into macromolecules
Polymers
Lipids, complex carbohydrates, proteins
Fatty acids
Contain carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen
Long hydrocarbon chain with an acidic carboxyl head
Properties depend on length of carbon chain and the presence of any double bonds
Saturated = no double bonds
Unsaturated = at least one double bond
Polyunsaturated = multiple double bonds
Lipids
Three fatty acids bonded to a glycerol molecule
Properties determined by fatty acids
Carbohydrates (sugars)
Contain carbon, hydrogen and oxygen
1:2:1 ratio
Properties depend on number of carbons and arrangement of -OH groups
Complex carbohydrates
Long chains of sugars
Properties determined by type and arrangement of bonds between units
Amino acids
Contain carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen (and sometimes sulfur)
Each contains
An amino group
A carboxyl group
A side group
Properties are determined by the side group
Proteins
Long chain of amino acids bonded together by peptide bonds
Properties determined by the order of amino acids in the chain
Peptide chain folds into complex shapes which give the protein its function
Many proteins function as enzymes (biological catalysts that carry out reactions in the cell)
Nucleotides
Comprised of
A phosphate ion
A five carbon sugar
A nitrogenous base
The nitrogenous base determines what other nucleotide it will pair with
Nucleic acids (DNA and RNA)
Long chain of nucleic acids bonded together by phosphate-sugar bonds
Strands are paired in DNA
Held together by bonds between bases
A bonds to T
G bonds to C
Strands coil around each other
Information is stored in the order of bases along the strand
Cells
Fundamental units of life
All organisms have one or more cells
Genes
Sequences of nucleotides within DNA
Creates inheritable traits
Instructions for proteins
Protein enzymes carry out metabolic processes
Energy is the ability do work or transfer heat
Change the position of matter
Change the physical state of matter
Change the temperature of matter
Break or form chemical bonds
Whenever energy is converted from one form to another in a physical or chemical change, two rules always apply:
No energy is created or destroyed (first law of thermodynamics)
We end up with lower quality or less usable energy than we started with (second law of thermodynamics)
Kinetic energy
Energy of movement
Heat
Electromagnetic radiation
Potential energy
Can be changed into kinetic energy
Stored energy
Chemical energy
Bonds between atoms contain a certain amount of energy
Energy is released when a bond is broken
Energy is used to make new bonds
Renewable energy
Gained from resources that are replenished by natural processes in a relatively short time
Nonrenewable energy
Gained from resources that can be depleted and are not replenished by natural processes within human timescale
Solar energy
99% of the energy that keeps us warm and supports plans
Commercial energy
Energy sold in the marketplace
Supplements the sun’s energy
80% of it comes from fossil fuels
Oil, coal, natural gas
High-quality energy
High capacity to do work
Concentrated
Examples
High temperature heat, strong winds and fossil fuels
Low quality energy
Low capacity to do work
Dispersed (spread out)
Low temperature moving molecules
Heat in the ocean
Energy efficiency
Measure of how much work results from a unit of energy put into a system
Improving efficiency reduces waste
Estimate: 84% of energy used in the United States is wasted
Unavoidably because of second law of thermodynamics (41%)
Unnecessarily (43%)
First law of thermodynamics
Law of conservation of energy
Energy is neither created nor destroyed in physical and chemical changes
Second law of thermodynamics
Energy always goes from a more useful to a less useful form when it changes from one form to another
Systems are complex networks of relationships between components
Set of components that interact in a regular way
Systems have inputs, flows and outputs of matter and energy, and feedback can affect their behavior
Feedback
Any process that increases or decreases a change in a system
Based on outputs coming back to a system as inputs
Positive feedback loop (usually bad)
Causes system to change further in the same direction
Can cause major environmental problems
Negative feedback loop (usually good)
Causes system to change in opposite direction
Life is sustained by the flow of energy from the sun through the biosphere, and the cycling of nutrients within the biosphere
One way flow of high quality energy
Sun to plants to living things to environment as heat to radiation to space
Cycling of nutrients through parts of the biosphere
Ecology
Science of organisms’ interactions with each other and their nonliving environment
Feeding level (trophic level)
Organisms classified as producers or consumers based on source of energy
Some organisms can take energy from their environment to produce the food they need (producers) (usually comes from sunlight)
Others get their energy by consuming other organisms (consumers)
Some recycle nutrients back to producers by decomposing the wastes and remains of organisms (decomposers)
Producers (autotrophs)
Photosynthesis
Co2 + H20 + sunlight to glucose + oxygen
Converts kinetic (electromagnetic) into potential (chemical) energy
Consumers (heterotrophs) cannot produce the nutrients they need
Primary consumers (herbivores) eat plants
Carnivores feed on flesh of other animals
Secondary and tertiary (or higher) consumers
Omnivores eat both plants and animals (most animals)
Detritivores
Feed on dead bodies of other organisms
Decomposers
Consumers that release nutrients from wastes or remains of plants or animals
Nutrients return to soil, water and air for reuse
Bacteria, fungi
Consumers and decomposers (heterotrophs)
Respiration
Glucose + oxygen changes to CO2 + H20 + energy
Converts potential (chemical) energy into kinetic (work/heat) energy
Producers (autotrophs)
Also carry out respiration in order to release energy from the glucose they produce
Inorganic compounds (Carbon dioxide, oxygen) is taken up by plants
Solar energy is used to make them plants
Heat is lost
Those producers (plants) can be eaten by consumers
When these consumers die, the decomposers re release those nutrients
More energy is lost
Energy is put back by solar energy
All organisms use the chemical energy stored in glucose by photosynthesis
Using oxygen to turn glucose back into CO2 and water through respiration
Energy flows through ecosystems in food chains and webs
The amount of chemical energy available to organisms decreases at each new level
Gross Primary Productivity (GPP)
Rate that producers convert solar energy into chemical energy
Net Primary Productivity (NPP)
Rate that producers produce biomass that can be used by consumers
Biomass
Dry weight of all organic matter of a given trophic level in a food chain or food web
Food chain
Movement of energy and nutrients from one trophic level to the next
Photosynthesis to feeding to decomposition
Food web
Network of interconnected food chains
Biomass is a measure of available energy
Decreases at each higher trophic level due to heat loss
Pyramid of energy flow
90% of energy lost with each transfer
Less chemical energy for higher trophic levels
Matter, in the form of nutrients, cycles within and among ecosystems and the biosphere
Cycles driven by incoming solar energy and gravity
Cycles are made up reservoirs and the processes that move nutrients between them
Nutrient cycles
Carbon cycle - major component of all macromolecules
Nitrogen - important component of proteins and nucleic acids
Hydrologic cycle collects, purifies and distributes earth’s fixed supply of water
Incoming solar energy causes evaporation
Gravity draws water back as precipitation
Surface runoff evaporates to complete the cycle
Some precipitation is stored as groundwater
Major processes
Evaporation
Condensation and Precipitation
Infiltration and runoff
Alteration of the hydrologic cycle by humans
Withdrawal of large amounts of freshwater at rates faster than nature can replace it
Clearing vegetation
Increased flooding when wetlands are drained
Processes based on CO2
Producers remove CO2 from the atmosphere through photosynthesis
Consumers produce CO2 through respiration
Some carbon takes a long time to recycle
Humans have added large amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere
Faster rate than natural processes can remove
Levels have been increasingly sharply since we started measuring them directly in about 1960
Result: climate change
Clearing vegetation reduces ability to remove excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
Useful forms of nitrogen
Created by specialized bacteria in topsoil and sediment of aquatic systems, and by lightning
Used by plants to produce proteins, nucleic acids and vitamins
Bacteria convert nitrogen compounds back into nitrogen gas
Life is sustained by
The flow of energy from the sun through the biosphere
The cycling of nutrients within the biosphere
Organisms fill different roles in ecosystems
Some organisms produce the food they need
Some organisms consume others
Some organisms live on wastes and recycle nutrients
Ecosystem functions relies on the flow of matter (nutrients) from one reservoir to another
Case study - Germany using economics to spur a shift to renewable energy
Phase out dependence on fossil fuels and nuclear energy
Goal: 80% of electricity from renewable sources by 2050
Government legislation
Feed in tariff system for solar and wind energy
Offshore wind farms
New, state of the art electrical grid
Ecological economists and most sustainability experts regard human economic systems as subsystems of the biosphere
Economic systems
Social institutions meant to distribute goods and services
Economics
Science of production, distribution and consumption of goods and services
Natural capital
Resources provided by earth’s natural processes
Human capital
People’s physical and mental capabilities
Manufactured capital
Tools
Externalities
When external costs aren’t available in the price of a product/service
Pollution
Regulations and subsidies
Pass laws to control air and water pollution
Other tools: subsidies and taxes
Subsidies
Government payments to help a business grow and thrive
Neoclassical economists
View the earth’s natural capital as a part of a human economic system
Assumes growth can go on without limits
Ecological economists
View human economic systems as subsystems of the biosphere
Believes that conventional economic growth is unsustainable
Economists have developed several ways to estimate:
Present and future values of a resource or ecosystem service
Optimum levels of pollution control and resource use
Comparing likely costs and benefits of an environmental action is useful but has uncertainties
Valuing natural capital
Estimating values of earth’s natural capital
Monetary worth of ecosystems
Estimate nonuse values
Existence value
Aesthetic value
Bequest value
Willingness to pay to protect natural capital for future generations
Discount rate
Estimate of a resource’s future economic value compared to its present value
Proponents of a high (5-10%) discount rate
Inflation can reduce future earning’s value
Opportunity cost
Critics of a high discount rate
Encourages rapid exploitation of resources
Cost-benefit analysis
Incentive based regulation example
Tradeable pollution or resource-use permits governed by caps
Cap and trade approach used in US to reduce SO2
Making a transition to more sustainable economies will require finding ways to estimate and include harmful health costs for producing these goods services in the market price
Making this economic transition will also mean phasing out environmentally harmful subsidies and tax breaks, and replacing them with environmentally beneficial subsidies and tax breaks
Another way would be to tax pollution and wastes instead of wages and profits and to use the revenue to promote environmental sustainability and reduce poverty
Through its policies, a government can protect environmental interests
Needs to be a balance between government and free enterprise
Policy life cycle
Recognition
Formulation
Implementation
Adjustment
Special interest groups pressure the government
Profit making organizations, nongovernmental organizations, labor unions, and trade unions
Politicians focus on short-term problems
Principles can guide us in making environmental policy
Reversibility principle - avoid making decisions that cannot be reversed
Precautionary principle - Take measures to prevent harm if the risk is unknown
Prevention principle - Preventing a problem from happening or becoming worse is easier than cleaning it up
Net energy principle - Avoid energy technologies with low or net negative energy yields
If you have to put a lot of energy into the process to get out energy, it’s inefficient
The polluter pays principle - Make policies that ensure polluters bear the cost of the damage caused by pollution
The environmental justice principle - No group should have unfair share of burden caused by pollution
The holistic principle - Problems are interconnected so solutions need to consider whole ecosystem
The triple bottom line principle - Balance economic and environmental needs when rules are made
The humility principle - Knowing that we do not know everything about how the natural world works
Ideal: Every person is entitled to protection from environmental hazards
Studies show large share of polluting factories in the US are in minority communities
Policy making involves enacting laws, funding programs and writing/enforcing rules
Complex process affected by political processes
Individuals can work together to become part of political processes that influence environmental policies
Developing environmental policy is a controversial process
Funding is needed
Regulation and rules needed to implement the law
Environmental regulation agencies play an important role
Regulated businesses try to have their members appointed to regulatory agency
Most environmental lawsuits are civil suits
Injunction - court order to stop action
Class action suit - civil suit filed by group
Why it’s hard to win these cases
Legal standing - has the plaintiff suffered health/financial problems?
Very expensive
Public interest law firms
Plaintiffs must establish that harm has been done
Statutes of limitation
Appeals can take years
Strategic lawsuits against public participation (SLAPPs)
Defamation lawsuits
Types of legislation
Set standards for pollution levels
Encourage resource conservation
Environmental legislation has been effective
Since the 80s, well organized forces have been against existing environmental laws
They’re strongly opposed to these regulations
Modern environmental problems are complex
Major environmental worldviews differ on what’s more important
Human needs vs overall health of ecosystems
Environmental worldviews
Beliefs about how the natural world works and how people should interact with it
Environmental ethics
Beliefs about what is right and wrong in our behavior towards the environment
Two human centered worldviews
Planetary management worldview
We can and should manage the earth for our own benefit
No problem school
Free-market school
Stewardship worldview
We have an ethical responsibility to be caring stewards
Criticisms of the human centered worldview
Assumes we can be good stewards
Humility principle
Life centered worldview
Humans have ethical responsibility to avoid hastening extinction of other species
Earth centered worldview
Responsibility to preserve earth’s biodiversity
The first step to living more sustainably is to become more environmentally literate
Three foundations of environmental literacy
Natural capital matters
Our ecological footprints are immense and growing rapidly
Ecological and climate tipping points are irreversible and should never be crossed
Formal environmental education
Is it enough
In addition to nature’s economic value
Appreciate ecological, aesthetic and spiritual aspects of nature
Experiencing nature is necessary for healthy living
Nature deficit disorder (increasing isolation from nature)
Three big ideas
An important outcome of the political process is environmental policy
Our environmental worldviews plays a key role in how we treat the earth that sustains us, and thus, in how we treat ourselves
We need to become more environmentally literate
The biodiversity found in genes, species, ecosystems and ecosystem processes is vital to sustaining life on the earth
Biodiversity - variety in the earth’s species
Species - set of individuals who can mate and produce fertile offspring
8 million to 100 million
About 2 million identified
Species biodiversity
Number and variety of species
Genetic diversity
Variety of genes in a population
Ecosystem diversity
Biomes: regions with distinct climates/species
Functional diversity
Biological and chemical processes such as energy flow and matter recycling needed for the survival of of species, communities and ecosystems
High biodiversity increases sustainability of ecosystems
Produce more plant biomass to support greater number of consumer species
Contain species traits that enable them to adapt to changing environmental conditions
Each species plays a specific ecological role called its niche
Ecological niche
Everything that affects survival and reproduction
Water, space, sunlight, food
Native species
Normally live and thrive in a particular environment
Nonnative species
Migrate or are accidentally introduced into an ecosystem
Invasive species are harmful nonnative species
Indicator species
Provide early warning of damage to a community
Can monitor environmental quality
Keystone species
Have a large effect on the types and abundance of other species
Can play critical roles in helping sustain ecosystems
Top predators - consume the consumers, control what species live in the ecosystem
Pollinators - determine what types of plants will grow
Ecosystem architects - physically change the environment in a way that promotes the growth of other species
The American alligator
Keystone species in subtropical wetland ecosystems
Digs gator holes that hold freshwater and serve as refuge for aquatic life
1930s: hunted for sport, meat and skin
1967: added to endangered species list
1977: impressive comeback
The way that species interact with others affect the resource use and population sizes of the species in an ecosystem
Five basic types of interaction
Interspecific competition
Competing to use the same limited resources
Resource partitioning - Species may use only parts of resource at different times and in different ways
Predation
Predators feed directly on all or part of a living organism
Parasitism
Parasites are usually much smaller than the host
Parasites rarely kill the host
Mutualism
Both species benefit
Nutrition and productive relationship
Ex: Pollinators
Commensalism
Benefits one species and has little effect on the other
Epiphytes
Birds nesting in trees
Ecological succession
Normally gradual change in structure and species composition of a given system
Primary ecological succession
Involves gradual establishment of communities in lifeless areas
Needs to build up fertile soil or aquatic sediments to support a plant community
Starts with pioneer species such as lichens or mosses
Secondary ecological succession
A series of terrestrial communities or ecosystems that develop in places that already have soil or sediment
Ex: abandoned farmland
Sometimes called old field succession
Population
Group of interbreeding individuals of the same species
Population size governed by
Births, deaths, immigration and emigration
Population change = (births + immigration) - (deaths + emigration)
There are always limits to population growth
Each population has a range of tolerance
Variation under physical/chemical environment under which it can survive
Limiting factors
Precipitation
Water temperature
Population density
Environmental resistance - The sum of the factors that limit population growth
Carrying capacity
Maximum population of a given species that a particular habitat can sustain indefinitely
Can change when limiting factors change
Population crashes
Happens when a population greatly exceeds its carrying capacity
Reproductive time lag may lead to overshoot
Subsequent population crash
Tipping point
Damage may reduce area’s carrying capacity
Species diversity is important
Major component of biodiversity
Tends to increase sustainability of ecosystems
Human activity can decrease biodiversity
Causing extinction of species
Destroying/degrading habitats needed for the development of new species
A species’ population size is determined by its limiting factors in its environment
From the evolution of Homo sapiens to a total population of two billion took 200,00 years
It took less than 50 years to add another two billion
It took 25 years to add the third two billion
Nineteen years later, the earth had 7.6 billion people
It took 24 years to add the fourth two billion
Factors impacting rapid rise of human population
Emergence of agriculture increased food production
Technologies helped humans expand into almost all the planet’s climates and habitats
Improved sanitation and healthcare led to drops in death rates
The continuing rapid growth of the human population and its impacts on natural capital raise questions about how long the human population can keep growing
IPAT Model
Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology
Rate of population growth has slowed from more than 2% in 1960 to less than 1%
The world’s population is still growing
Human population growth is unevenly distributed geographically
2% added to more developed countries
98% added to less developed countries
People are moving from rural to urban areas
Many differing views
We have already exceeded tipping points, or planetary boundaries
Technological ingenuity will help find substitutes to resources we are depleting
The main problem is the rapidly growing number of people in less-developed countries
The main problem is overconsumption in more-developed countries
As the human population grows, so does the global total human ecological footprint
Cultural carrying capacity
Total number of people who could live in reasonable freedom and comfort indefinitely without decreasing the ability of the earth to sustain future generations
Human population size in 2050 was projected to be between 7.8 billion and 10.8 billion
Factors influencing range of estimates
Reliability of current population estimates
Assumptions about trends in fertility
Different organizations that estimate populations use different methods and data
Population size increases through births and immigration, and decreases through deaths and emigration
The average number of children born to women in a population (total fertility rate) is the key factor used to predict population size in the future
Population change = (births + immigration) - (deaths + emigration)
Fertility rate - number of children born to a woman during her lifetime
Replacement-level fertility rate
Average number of children a couple must have to replace themselves
Approximately 2.1 in developed countries
Total fertility rate (TFR)
Average number of children born to women in a population
Between 1955 and 2012, the global TFR dropped from 5 to to 2.4 (2.24 by 2025)
However, to eventually halt population growth, global TFR must drop to 2.1
Several factors affect birth rates and fertility rates
Children as part of the labor force
Cost of raising and educating children
Availability of private and public pension
Urbanization
Educational and employment opportunities for women
Average age of a woman at marriage
Availability of legal abortions
Availability of reliable birth control methods
Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms
Several factors affect death rates
Life expectancy
Infant mortality rate
Number of live births that die in first year
High infant mortality rate indicates
Insufficient food
Poor nutrition
High incidence of infectious disease
Migration
The movement of people into and out of specific geographic areas
Causes of migration
Economic improvement
Religious and political freedom
Wars
Environmental refugees
Number of males and females in young, middle and older age groups determine how fast a population grows or declines
Age structure categories
Pre-reproductive ages (0-14)
Reproductive ages (15-44)
Post-reproductive ages (45+)
Country with large percentage of people younger than age 15 will experience rapid population growth
Global population of seniors expected to triple between 2015 and 2050
What factors lead to slower population growth?
Human population growth slows when poverty is reduced, the status of women is elevated and family planning is encouraged
Economic development
Demographic transition
As countries become industrialized, first death rates decline, then birth rates decline
Four stages
Preindustrial
Transitional
Industrial
Postindustrial
Empowering women can slow population growth
Women have fewer children if
Educated
Able to earn an income
Society does not suppress their rights
Women
Do most of the domestic work and childcare
Provide unpaid healthcare
Have fewer rights and educational opportunities than men
Family planning in less developed countries
Responsible for a 55% drop in TFRs
Financial benefits - money spent on family planning saves far more in health, education costs
Three Big Ideas
The human population is increasing rapidly and may soon bump up against environmental limits
Increasing use of resources per person
Expanding the overall human ecological footprint and putting a strain on the earth’s resources
We can slow population growth by reducing poverty through economic development, elevating the status of women, and encouraging family planning