Epidemiology of High-Impact Chronic Pain – Dr. Mark Pitcher
Introduction to the Session
- Speaker: Dr. Mark Pitcher, PhD
- Epidemiologist & Director of Health Sciences Interprofessional Research, University of Bridgeport
- Background: Neuroscience training at McGill; epidemiology work at NIH (National Center for Complementary & Integrative Health)
- Expertise: Integrative pain management, chronic pain epidemiology
- Context: Part of a lecture series; audience encouraged to interrupt with questions via chat or voice
Fundamentals of Epidemiology
- CDC definition: “Scientific, systematic, data-driven study of the distribution (frequency & pattern) and determinants (causes & risk factors) of health-related states or events in populations, and the application of this study to control health problems.”
- Two archetypes of epidemiologists
- Field (e.g., investigating COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan)
- Desk / Data (Dr. Pitcher: large-dataset analyst)
- Key term — Prevalence
\text{Prevalence} = \frac{\text{# people with condition at a specific time}}{\text{Total population at same time}}
Historical Estimates & the “100 Million” Debate
- 2008 estimate: ≈ 100 million U.S. adults (~40 %) reported “chronic pain”
- Critique: Term was ill-defined; conflated mild, intermittent, & disabling pain
- Federal response: HHS convened CDC, AHRQ, FDA, NIH, VA, DoD → National Pain Strategy (NPS)
National Pain Strategy – Operational Definitions
- Chronic Pain (CP): Pain on ≥ ½ the days for ≥ 6 months
- High-Impact Chronic Pain (HICP): CP plus “substantial restriction” in work, social, or self-care activities for ≥ 6 months
- Gap: No prevalence data for HICP when definition proposed
Initial HICP Study (Pitcher et al., 2019)
Data Source & Methodology
- Data: 2011 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS)
- 120 000–150 000 respondents; complex sampling (oversamples e.g., Native Americans)
- Publicly downloadable; large files require statistical software know-how
- Operationalization
- CP → Answered “most days” or “every day” to: “During the last 3 months how often did you have pain?”
- Activity-limitation items (yes/no): inability to work, attend school, perform household chores, participate socially, etc.
- HICP = CP + ≥ 1 activity limitation
- CP-w/o-Limitations = CP but no limitations
- Note: Conservative—no gradation of “partial” limitation
Core Findings (2011)
- U.S. adult CP prevalence: 18.4 % (~ 40 M)
- CP-w/o-Limitation: 13.6 % (~ 30 M)
- HICP: 4.8 % (~ 10 M) (“floor” estimate)
Demographic Patterns in HICP
- Sex: ~ 55–60 % female
- Age: prevalence climbs sharply ≥ 65 yrs
- BMI: higher BMI → higher HICP
- Race/Ethnicity:
- More Whites numerically (reflects population)
- Higher probability in Blacks & Native Americans
- Education: Lower education ↑ prevalence
- Marital Status: Higher in divorced / separated
Psychosocial & Health Burden
- Pain descriptors (vs CP-w/o-Limitation & general population)
- Greater intensity (“a lot”), all-day duration, daily occurrence
- Mental health
- Higher daily depression & anxiety frequency/intensity
- ↑ medication use for mood disorders
- General health
- > 2× more likely to say health worse than 12 mo ago
- > 11 bed-days/yr; need help with ADLs & self-care
- Healthcare utilization
- More specialist visits, ≥ 10 office visits/yr, ≥ 1 surgery/yr
- Socio-economic paradox: greatest need, least resources/insurance
- Caveat: NHIS surgery question covers any surgery ➔ interpret cautiously (wisdom teeth to spine fusion)
Activity-Limitation Odds Ratios
- Compared to “no / occasional pain”
\text{OR}{\text{Demog only}} = 5.88
\text{OR}{\text{Demog + chronic conditions}} = 4.19 - CP outranks kidney failure, stroke, emphysema, cancer for predicting functional limitation
Section Summary
- HICP = severe CP subtype; ≥ 10 M adults (likely closer to 20 M)
- Limitations due primarily to pain, not comorbidities
- Disproportionate mental-health burden & healthcare costs
- Non-pharmacologic & integrative therapies critical amid opioid crisis
Subsequent Literature & Updated Numbers
- Kaiser Permanente study (Von Korff et al., 2019)
- 14 % of clinic cohort had HICP; 50 % of high service users had HICP
- 2016 NHIS (new HICP-specific questions)
- CP = 20.4 %
- HICP = 8.0 % (~ 19.6 M)
- Highest among adults in poverty, < HS education, public insurance
- Elderly (Health & Retirement Study)
- ≥ 50 yrs: HICP = 8 %; lowest wealth quartile → 17 +
- Chronic spinal pain (NHIS 2019)
- CP-spine = 6 %; HICP-spine = 2.2 %
- HICP-spine users ↑ opioid use (dose & prevalence)
From Low-Impact to High-Impact: What Turns the Dial?
- Possible drivers
- Pain location, intensity, chronicity
- Intrinsic traits: resilience, grit
- Adverse childhood experiences
- Socioeconomic constraints
- Genetic / physiological differences
- Occupation-related biomechanical stress
Pilot Data – University of Bridgeport (UB) Clinics
Clinic Context
- Community teaching clinic; ≈ 18 000 visits/yr
- Low-SES, uninsured / under-insured patients; services: chiropractic, acupuncture, naturopathy, dental hygiene
Sample & Instruments
- n = 99; blood, diet, ICD-10, & NPS pain survey
- Pain survey yields:
- Frequency categories (most days, every day, every day all day)
- Pain Severity Score (PSS) out of 30 (sum of intensity 0-10 + interference with ADL 0-10 + interference with enjoyment 0-10)
Key Observations
- 66 % met CP criteria
- Sex: Females report higher PSS within CP group
- Age vs PSS: No clear trend (sample under-powered)
- Increasing frequency → visually higher severity, but small n ⇒ non-significant
- Inter-item correlations (CP subgroup)
- Intensity ↔ Enjoyment r=0.347 (modest)
- Intensity ↔ Activities r=0.347
- Activities ↔ Enjoyment r=0.773 (strong) → essentially same construct
- Individual-level heterogeneity: similar frequency/intensity yet disparate functional impact—suggests multifactorial modifiers
Machine-Learning Exploration (NHIS 2017)
- 95 candidate variables ➔ XGBoost classifier
- Top predictors of HICP vs CP-w/o-Limitation
- # Bed days past yr
- BMI
- Age
- Pain frequency
- Moderate-exercise frequency
- Sleep hours
- “Effort” (self-reported difficulty)
- Alcohol drinks/week
- Marital status
- Feelings of restlessness
- “Alternative” modalities (guided imagery, Tai Chi, progressive relaxation) not differentiating—used across pain severities
- ROC AUC ≈ 0.75 → model substantially better than chance but room for refinement
Socioeconomic Status (SES) & Occupation Hypothesis
- Lower SES → less higher-ed access → higher likelihood of physically demanding jobs → ↑ injury risk → ↑ CP & HICP
- NHIS occupation codes (Standard Occupational Classification)
- Examples (prevalence of HICP):
- Healthcare Support = 11.6 %
- Construction & Extraction = 9-10 %
- Computer & Mathematical = 3.3 %
- Largest absolute # of HICP cases in Office & Administrative Support (prevalence moderate but occupation common)
- Education & income gradients mirror occupation risk profiles
- U.S. adult CP prevalence: Female 56 % vs Male 44 %
- Biological factors: sex hormones, autoimmune diseases
- Social factors: workplace stress in male-dominated sectors, communication norms around reporting pain
Ethical, Philosophical & Practical Implications
- HICP represents severe suffering + socioeconomic vulnerability
- Integral to opioid-overdose narrative—most prescriptions concentrated in HICP
- Equity issue: populations in poverty & physically demanding jobs shoulder disproportionate burden
- Public-health strategy must integrate: prevention (workplace safety), early-intervention, non-pharma modalities, mental-health support
Methodological Caveats
- NHIS = cross-sectional: cannot infer temporality or causation
- Survey questions set by CDC → limited granularity (e.g., surgery reason)
- Conservative definitions likely underestimate HICP prevalence
- Small pilot datasets (e.g., UB study) under-powered; hypothesis-generating
Connections to Previous & Future Work
- Builds on national calls (NPS) to refine pain definitions & metrics
- Informs integrative pain-management research agendas (non-opioid, complementary therapies)
- Necessitates longitudinal cohorts to identify predictors & causal pathways
- COVID-19 era may shift occupation patterns, mental health, tele-work prevalence → future analyses warranted
Clinical & Research Take-Aways
- Screening toolkit should include:
- Frequency (≥ ½ days × 6 mo)
- Intensity (0-10)
- Interference with work, social, self-care
- Mental-health check (depression, anxiety)
- CP ≠ HICP: stratify patients; tailor interventions & resource allocation
- Recognize occupation & SES context; advocate workplace modifications & policy reform
- Integrative modalities (acupuncture, mindfulness, Tai Chi) widely adopted—need robust efficacy & implementation studies
- HICP affects ≥ 10–20 million U.S. adults and is more disabling than stroke or kidney failure in terms of daily function
- Pain itself—not just comorbid disease—drives inability to work or care for self
- Epidemiologic evidence underscores urgency for multi-disciplinary, non-opioid strategies
- Future work: leverage machine learning & longitudinal datasets to unravel causal pathways and optimize intervention targeting