Emanuele_EJPR_2023

Class Cleavage Electoral Structuring in Western Europe (1871-2020)

Abstract

• A significant body of research exists on class cleavages in electoral politics, yet there is a lack of a dynamic model to conceptualize and measure the electoral development stages of the class cleavage.

• This study proposes a model combining key electoral properties to assess each country's class cleavage stage over time.

• Results indicate that electorally structured class cleavage is prevalent in Western Europe's electoral history but is influenced more by national political contexts than by socio-structural factors.

Introduction

• Lipset and Rokkan's (1967) seminal analysis and related studies have traditionally assumed a dynamic aspect whereby class conflicts evolve into structured political cleavages within party systems.

• However, no comprehensive dynamic model has been developed to measure different electoral development stages of class cleavages, particularly their maturity stages.

• Understanding the conditions under which class cleavage persists or declines is fundamental in contemporary electoral politics, especially for left parties.

Theoretical Framework

• Class cleavages, emerging post-Industrial Revolution, facilitated the formation of socialist and social democratic parties, becoming a standardizing element across Western Europe.

• The freezing hypothesis states that social group-party alignments stabilized around the 1920s, which the subsequent electoral patterns reaffirmed.

• Research has divided into two main avenues: micro-level studies on class voting and macro-level analyses testing the freezing hypothesis against historical data.

• This work takes a macro-historical perspective to investigate electoral development within class cleavage over 150 years in Western Europe.

Model of Class Cleavage Electoral Development

• The proposed model includes:

  • Electoral Strength: The overall vote share of parties representing the losing side of the cleavage.

  • Direction of Change: Whether the electoral support for these parties is increasing or decreasing across elections.

  • Electoral Mobility: The extent to which voters switch allegiance across cleavage lines.

Stages of Electoral Development

1. Maturity: High electoral strength and low mobility indicate a stable, structured cleavage.

2. Marginality: Stable yet low electoral support, indicating limited relevance.

3. Mobilization: High mobility towards increasing relevance for cleavage parties.

4. Crisis: High mobility in a negative direction representing the decline of the cleavage.

Determinants Hypotheses

• Hypothesis 1: Larger industrial working class correlates with higher likelihood of Maturity.

• Hypothesis 2: Greater cultural heterogeneity reduces chances of Maturity due to competing identities.

• Hypothesis 3: Higher enfranchisement should increase chances for Maturity as it mobilizes working-class support.

• Hypothesis 4: Increased party system fragmentation lowers probability of Maturity due to electoral distractions.

• Hypothesis 5: Higher ideological polarization should enhance Maturity by consolidating party alignments.

• Hypothesis 6: The stronger radical right parties become, the less likely Maturity for class cleavages, as they draw traditional working-class support.

• Hypothesis 7: Coalition governments formed by left parties with non-class bloc parties weaken cleavage stability.

Research Design and Data

• Employs macro-historical comparative analysis across 20 Western European countries since the emergence of class bloc parties.

• Focuses on Lower House elections over 588 electoral cycles, with distinctions drawn between significant historical periods:

  • Pre-WWI

  • Interwar

  • Golden Age (1945–1967)

  • Post-L&R (1968-1989)

  • Post-Wall (1990-2009)

  • Great Recession (2010-2020)

Results Overview

• Maturity stage is the most common, recorded in 47.4% of electoral periods.

• Initial electoral development dynamics favored Mobilization prior to WWI, transitioning to Maturity in the Interwar period.

• Post WWI saw dominance of Maturity, while the Great Recession marked slight declines but not a departure from established patterns.

Cross-Country and Cross-Time Variability

• Different countries exhibited varied paths; Scandinavian countries maintained a consistently mature class cleavage.

• In contrast, fragmented party systems yielded diminishing electorally structured cleavages, leading towards Marginality in some cases.

Explaining Class Cleavage Electoral Structuring

• Regression analyses revealed:

  • Political Context: Key in predicting Maturity, with significant effects from fragmentation and polarization.

  • Social factors (industrial working-class size, cultural fractionalization) showed weaker predictive power of Maturity than hypothesized.

Conclusion

• Class cleavage electoral structuring is shaped more by political context than by social and structural transformations, suggesting possible resilience for class cleavages under conducive conditions.

• Future research should apply this model to other cleavages to enhance understanding of electoral developments.