Poli 10

Political Science: the goal of political science is to identify patterns in the political world and explain why they occur

• Political science seeks generalizable theories about empirical patterns in politics

  • (i.e. president passes many policies when they have a majority in congress)

Political science begins with the idea that all political behavior has a purpose, and individuals pursue their goals/preferences (i.e. “rational actors”)

Politics is about Reconciling Preferences

• Political scientists take preferences as “given”

• Different preferences must be reconciled to reach an agreement

• Often results in bargaining and compromise

• Reconciling is apart of the political process

Government: Organizations have rules and procedures for implementing decisions

• Constitution establishes the institutions and rules and procedures for coming to collective decisions

  • Institution: organization that helps manage conflict between rivals (e.g., House of Representatives, Senate, Presidency, Supreme Court)

• Government is the set of institutions and the procedures for making and enforcing collective agreements

Collective Action: reaching the “common good” or a good solution requires collective action (assuming we can even agree on the solution)

• several problems that interfere with this

  • The larger the group the harder it is to coordinate

  • Institutions can help solve coordination problems

    • Focal points

  • Even when people share a common goal and want the collective effort to succeed (e.g., leaving class early), it’s still difficult to coordinate (individual and group incentives conflict)

  • Free Riding: failure to contribute to group’s success while enjoying the benefits of collective action

  • Prisoner’s Dilemma: individuals acting in their own self-interest leader to a worse outcome than if they had worked together

    • Government can create institutions and enforce agreements to solve the prisoner’s dilemma

  • Tragedy of the commons

  • Principal-Agent Problem (i.e., Principal: UCSD, Agent: Professor Noble)

What Government Does

• Government helps solve politics and reach compromise through institutions and rules

• Government provides public goods, which everyone contributes (e.g., through taxes) and everyone consumes

  • National defense, clean air and water, public parks, etc.

- Governments solve collection action problems inherent in providing these goods though its resources and coercive power

Path Dependence

• “how we got here matters”

• How the United States government operates today and how politicians behave is dependent, in part, on history and the pre-existing design of our institutions

Changing Paths?

• Politicians wants to change/amend the Constitution (e.g., term limits for supreme courts justices and deciding presidents over popular vote)

Thirty Years of History in Two Bullet Points

• 13 British colonies in North America, independent from one another and in charge of many of their own affairs —> Little experience with collective action

• When war begins, colonists needed a governing structure —> Articles of Confederation (1777-1789)

Articles of Confederation

• Attempt to replicate structure of the British rule: each state was independent, little federal authority.

  • Authority derived from states (not citizens) which each had one vote in Congress

  • New laws required 9/13 majority, taxation, and new amendments required unanimous agreement

  • Think of the United Nations

• Free riding and prisoner’s dilemma - states did not want to contribute for fear others would defect.

  • Difficulty paying off war debt. Difficulty trading among states or with foreign nations

Toward a New Constitution

• Delegates meet in Philadelphia (1787) to discuss reforms to the Articles

• Reform quickly turns into revolutionary changes

• But… not necessarily agreement over what a new Constitution should look like

• Virginia Plan

  • Bicameral legislature

  • Population based representation (higher population yields more representation)

  • National government can legislate for states and veto state law

• The New Jersey Plan

  • Unicameral Legislature

  • State based legislature (each state equally represented)

  • National government provides defense but does not override state authority

• The Great Compromise

  • Bicameral legislature

  • Lower house (House of Representatives) representation based on population

  • Upper House (Senate) representation equal for every state

  • National government can levy taxes reserved to the lower chamber

• Three-Fifths Compromise

  • Enslaved people were 30% of the population in some states, outnumbered free people by 10:1. Debate over where they should count in population for representation

  • Three-Fifths compromise: enslaved people would not have rights but would count toward representation at a rate of 3/5 (southern states wanted this because they wanted a bigger population for representation)

• The Legislative Branch

  • Article 1 is about Congress

  • House of Representatives responsive to the people, Senators appointed by the states with longer, staggered terms to check the House

  • Constitution gives Congress new powers: collect taxes, borrow money, regulate commerce, declare war, etc.

  • Expressed Powers: Congress only has powers expressed in the Constitution, now new powers without amendments

  • Necessary and proper clause (elastic clause): Congress can make any law necessary to use its power

• The Executive Branch

  • Article 2 is about the president

  • Framers were worried about executive power (because of their last King)

  • The Presidency is kind of weak (or at least it’s supposed to be)

    • Presidents Power: appointment, negotiate treaties, serve as commander in chief, report on state of union, veto

      • Legislative checks on these powers (e.g., confirmation, declaring war, veto override)

• The Electoral College

  • 528 electoral votes

  • Winner take all system (not for Maine or Nebraska)

  • The Judiciary

    • Article 3 is about the courts

    • Justices chosen by president and confirmed by Senate

    • Lower courts created later

    • Courts main intent was to resolve conflict between state and federal law

    • Judicial review

  • Amending the Constitution

    • Recall, Articles required unanimity of the states to amend

    • Wanted to balance difficulty of amending articles with protection from frustrated popular majority

    • Procedure again balances state and popular power

    • Amendment proposals

      • 2/3 vote of both houses of Congress —> most likely approved by 3/4 of the 50 state legislatures

      • Or

      • A constitutional convention called by Congress on petition of 2/3 of the 50 states

    • Amendement Ratification

      • 3/4 of the 50 state legislatures

      • Or

      • 3/4 of special constitutional conventions called by 50 states

  • Now What…

    • Framers propose… a 9/13 state vote for adoption and passage through special elected state councils

    • Federalists (nationalists) vs. Anti-Federalists (state rights)

    • Bill of Rights

  How the Constitution Solves Collection Action Problem

  • Command (e.g., commander in chief)

  • Veto (e.g., president’s veto, senate advise and consent, bicameral legislature)

  • Agenda control (e.g., president’s lack of proposal power, House leadership powers)

  • Voting rules (e.g., bills, veto override, amendments to the constitution)

  • Delegation (e.g., elected representatives, chamber leaders)

  But Does it…?

  • Constitution is intentionally vague and open-minded

  • Polarization and gridlock

Government broke down over 2024 winter break but got resolved. Johnson, Speaker of the House, almost didn’t get reelected but he spoke to everyone again (did some arm twisting) and got a majority of the votes and is still the Speaker of the House.

Remember: all political behavior has a purpose

• politicians are “rational actors”

• How members of congress act (e.g., voting on bills, tweets sent, committee assignments) are all intended to achieve certain goals

Member son Congress Have Goals (Fenno 1973)

• Reelection

• “Good” public policy

• Power/influence within Congress

• But these all easier to come by when a party is in the majority and has a good reputation (Lee 2009)

What does Congress do all day?

• Make laws ??

• Raise and spend money ??

• Declare war ??

• Confirm presidential appointments (Senate only) ??

• The “elastic “(i.e., necessary and proper) clause

The House of Representatives

• Apportioned by population, 435 members, representing ~70,000 people each

• Two-year terms

• Closest to the people, represent immediate needs of the population

• Must be a citizen for 7 years, 25 or older

The Senate

• Apportioned by State, two per state, 100 members

• Six-year terms

• More insulated from public pressure

• Originally chosen by state legislature

• Must be a citizen of 9 years, 30 or older

Presidential System

• British Parliamentary System: voters elect house of commons (parties) who choose the cabinet who choose the prime minister

• U.S. Presidential System: voters elect house of representatives/Senate and also vote for the president

Getting to Congress

• In 1790, each state had one seat per 33,000 people; 105 seats

  • Seats grew with population until 435 in 1911 when House capped number of seats

  • Now seats shift based on population counts, each seat per ~70,000 people

  • Consider: coordination problems from further expansion

Who gets what Seats?

• Since 1950, the West and the South have been gaining house seats at the expense of the Northeast and Midwest

Gerrymandering

• drawing a crazy district for political purpose (districts are supposed to represent communities of different interests)

• No rules against extreme partisan gerrymandering (in U.S. Constitution)

• “Cracking”

• “Stacking” (opposite of “cracking)

• Used to get parties more seats

Racial Gerrymandering

• Voting Rights Act and a 1986 ruling that districts may not discriminate against minority populations

Plurality Vote

• Whoever gets the most votes (even if less than 50%) wins (in most states)

• No proportional representation

• Voters, not parties, choose candidates

Nationalization of Congressional Elections

• People were voting for a different party for senate and a different party for presidents but since 2016, this has decreased

Four Types of Representation

• Political scientist Hanna Pitkin (1967) proposed four types of representation:

  • Formalistic: authorization and accountability (relationship between constituents and representatives) (authorize members of congress to act on our behalf) (if we don't think members of Congress are acting in our best interest, we can remove them)

  • Descriptive: looks like, common experiences with, constituents (member of congress looks like or seems to share common experiences with the constituents) (e.g., white male constituent can resonate with a white Congress member and feels like this member of Congress can represent his interests best) (e.g. getting more representative over time, especially with women and other racial/ethnicities in the House of Representatives but still not proportionally representative)

  • Symbolic: “standing for” constituents, expressive (e.g., when people speak out about issues but has no action with policy)

  • Substantive: taking action on behalf of, advancing policy preferences of, constituents (actually taking action on the things their voters voted for)

How do Constituents Want to Be Represented?

• characteristics

• Factor

Delegates vs Trustees

• Delegates: follow expressed preferences of constituents

• Trustees: follow their own understanding of what is best

• The Spatial Voting Model

Lawmakers Need Information

• Specialization through committee and subcommittee system

• Creates policy experts, but also diminishes participation

• Committees holds hearings to gain information

Solving Coordination and Collective Action Problems

• Rules structure proceedings

• Rank-and-file delegate power to leaders

• Parties help structure decisions

• Just as we give power to government to solve collection action, lawmakers give up power (to rules, leaders, committees, etc.) for the same reason

House and Senate Structure

House

• speaker of the house

• Majority and minority leaders

• Strong majority control

Senate

• vice president presiding

• majority and minority leaders

• Weaker majority leader (they like individual power) (and needs collaboration from the other in order to end filibusters as it requires 3/5 of senate which no party usually has in senate)

• Unanimous consent

• Filibuster

The Committee System

• The House and Senate delegate drafting the legislation to committees to facilitate collective action

• Standing committees: permanent, fixed jurisdiction

  • Money committee most desirable

  • Foreign relations and Judiciary in Senate, Rules in House

• Subcommittees, joint committees, conference committee, select committees, … oh my!

Making Laws

• It’s hard

• Many (informal) vetos points in the process where legislation can get stuck

• “Regular Order”

Regular Oder

• bill introduction

• Assignment to committee

• Hearing and makeup

• Rules and Committee (House) and Debate

• Voting!

• Going to the Senate (or the House)

• Conference Committee (both parties come together to hash out their issues)

• To the president (they can veto which the senate can veto back with 2/3 congress)

• Passing Laws is Hard

Unorthodox law making: (behind close doors, create a beautiful package bill and present it to congress to vote on it without a conference committee) (more popular because parties have become more partisan and polarized) (hard for congress members to come together to solve the collective action problem of forcing regular order law making)

Presidential Representation

• presidents represent the whole nation (Dearborn 2021)

• Presidents represent their fellow partisans (Wood 2009)

• President represent key electoral college constituencies (Kriner and Reeves 2015)

Designing the Presidency

• “The ingredients which constitute energy in the executive, are, unity; duration; an adequate provision for its support; competent powers. The ingredients which constituter safety in the republican sense, are, a due dependence on the people; a due responsibility (Hamilton, Federalist 70).

Article II Powers

• Commander in Chief (if congress declares war)

• Appointment power (with senate approval)

• Treaties (with senate) and receiving ambassadors

• Veto (after congress passes a law, can be overridden)

• State of union (just talking)

• Calling congress into special session (Congress is always in session)

• Pardons

19th Century (1800s) Presidents

• Actually… the president isn’t that important

• Their main role was filling federal government positions

• Many policy questions posed to the cabinet

  • Principal-agent problem: “The members of the cabinets are the president’s natural enemies” (Advisor to President Harding, 1921-1923)

    • Much less power today, president has taken more direct power

Modern Presidents

• Transformation of the presidency in the 1930s/1940s with FDR

  • Growth of presidential power, especially in policymaking (change how people saw the presidency) (congress gave president power e.g., president proposing the budget which helps him set the agenda)

• Take Care Clause: “The President shall take care that the laws be faithfully executed”

The President as a Legislator

• Today, presidents are held accountable for the state of nation, campaign promises, policy solutions…but no formal proposal power

  • Presidents must build coalitions in Congress, the public (same party in presidency and congress helps)

• In divided government, the other party want sot make the president look ineffective

  • “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president” - Senator Mitch McConnell, 20210

• Veto and threats

The Polarized Presidency

• Shift in 1980s/1990s in polarization and divided government

  • Divided government: different parties control Congress and presidency

  • Unified Government: same party controls congress and presidency

Going Public

• Presidents are always talking

  • Going public: giving speeches to persuade the public and pressure legislators (Kernell 1997)

• But this is getting harder. Going public could backfire (Lee 2009)

Executive Power

• The Vesting Clause: “The Executive Power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America”

• Delegation vs. discretion

• Unilateral Authority

So Can Presidents Just Do Anything

• Unilateral authority limited to discretion previously delegates

• Future presidents via rescind unilateral acts

• Green Lantern Theory  (Nyhan 2014)

• Famous presidencies (e.g. FDR, LBJ, Obama) had huge congressional majorities

How do they make decisions

• The text of the law

• Ideology

• Public Opinion

Judicial Review

• The idea that judges look at the law so have the ability to say what is and sent legal

• Originally, look at state laws and see if they were constitutional

• Vague: if the court can look at congressional laws and see if they were unconstitutional

• John Marshall “It is emphatically the province and duty of the judicial department to say what the law is”

• But why?

Structure of the Court System:

• Federal courts: unified states district courts—> united states circuit courts of appeals —>  united states supreme court

• State courts: state trial courts —> state appellate courts —> highest state courts

How Cases get to the Supreme Court

• Supreme Court hears few cases (~60/yr)

• Shrinking docket

• Writ of certiorari

• Rule of 4

Taking Cues from Others

• amicus curiae (“friend of the court”)

• Solicitor general

Doctrine

• supreme courts rulings are doctrine

• Procedural doctrine

  • Stare decisis

  • Standing

• Substantive doctrine

  • Restraint vs activism

Deciding

• attorneys submit briefs, oral argument

• Majority vote

• Wiring of opinions

  • Majority

  • Dissent, concurrence

Senate Confirmation

• judges appointed by president, confirmed by senate

• Senatorial courtesy

• Nuclear option

Polarized Trust in the Supreme Court

Unpacking the Deep State

• The term Deep State refers to the possible existence of a group of unelected government and military officials who secretly manipulate or direct national policy. Do you think this type of Deep State in the federal government definitely exists, probably exists, probably does not exist, or definitely does not exist?

• Reports on march 2018 based on 803 responses

  • Def exists: 27%

  • Prob exists: 47%

  • Prob doesn’t exist: 16%

  • Def doesn’t exist: 5%

  • Don't know 5%

Why We Need the Deep State Bureaucracy

• Laws are not “self-executing”

• Policy is often lacking in detail

  • Example is the Trump executive order on birthright citizenship

The Rise of the Bureaucracy

• Congress wary of delegating to the executive, but unavoidable

• Re-created Treasury, State and War Departments as under Articles of Confederation

• Power of the purse as a check

The Eras of the Bureaucracy

• Federalist “respectability”

• Jacksonian “spoils system”

• Progressive civil service reform, merit, and the Pendleton Act

Growth of the Bureaucracy

• Low then high at around WWII but then goes down during Great Depression and is now like in the middle of the graph in case of height

The Cabinet

• Generally “department level” agencies

  • State, Defense, Justice, treasury, Homeland Security, Education, Health and Human Services, Labor, Energy, Interior, Commerce, Agriculture, Housing and Urban Development, transportation, veteran Affairs, Homeland Security

  • Secretaries and top officials appointed by president, confirmed by Senate

Rule-Making Power

• Congress gives agencies power to create rules which have force of law

  • Public Notice

  • Response to public comments, justification

Agency Loss

• President as principal, bureaucrats as agents

  • Agency Loss: difference between what principal wants and what agent does

Congressional Control

• The more work government does, the more delegation

  • Police patrols vs fire alarms (metaphor) (patrol=cost effective in time) (patrol=always watching the bureaucrats. Fire alarms=wait for someone to alert them that a bureaucrat is acting bad)

  • Inspectors general, government accountability office

Presidential Control

• Appointment power

• Hiring and firing ~4,000 bureaucrats

• President Trump and “Schedule F”

Judicial Control

• Courts can also weigh in

• “Arbitrary and capricious” standard

• New: the end of Chevron Deference (courts should defer to the agency’s interpretation of rules) (courts took this back) (gives courts more power to enact what they want)

The Benefits (?) of Red Tape (slow and inefficient)

• Helps principals monitor

• Keeps agents out of trouble

• No bottom line, few measurable outputs (you dont have to exactly do your job because who watching?)

• Rewards flow from tenure and compliance