2020 presidential election summary

stage 1: primaries and caucuses. candidates in same party compete against each other in public vote

• as incumbent president, nobody challenged donald trump

• joe biden, bernie sanders, elizabeth warren, pete buttigieg were some of the candidates

when do elections happen?

• fixed term – every 4 years.

• first held in 1788.

• if a president dies in office: no election, VP takes over

  • When JFK was assassinated in 1963 his VP Lyndon Johnson took over remaining months of the Presidency.

• timing of the elections is in Article II of the constitution – stipulating every four years.

• federal law goes further saying they should be held on Tuesday after the first Monday in November of every fourth year

constitutional requirements

to stand for president you must be:

• natural born american citizen

• at least 35 years old

• youngest ever was theodore roosevelt (became president after mckinley's assassination in 1901) who was 42

• youngest ever elected was jfk who was 43.

• in 1951 the constitution was amended to limit presidents to two terms in office.

• dwight eisenhower was the first to be bound with this along with regan, clinton, george w bush + obama

• fourth constitutional requirement could be added – to not have already served 2 terms as president

extra constitutional requirements

1. Political experience

2. Major party endorsement

3. Personal characteristics

4. Ability to raise large sums of money

5. Effective organisation

6. Oratorical skills and being telegenic

7. Sound and relevant policies

1. political experience

• potentially most important extra-constitutional requirement

• 2 groups have good pools of potential candidates:

  • state governors

  • state senators

• of 22 candidates for Republican + Democratic presidential nominations in 2016:

  • 11 had served as state governor

  • 8 were senators

  • Other 3 – Donald Trump, Ben Carson & Carly Fiorina had no previous political experience.

  • Donald Trump was first person to be elected president w out any experience in either politics/military.

• Of 19 people nominated as presidential candidates 1969-2016:

  • 10 served in Senate

  • 6 served as State governors

  • 6 served as Vice President

    • despite large field of political experience in 2016, none of them were able to defeat a political novice (Trump).

2. major party endorsement

• if serious, have to be candidate for one of 2 major political parties

  • Wallace (1968), Anderson (1980), Perot (1992 & 1996), Buchanan (2000), Johnson (2016) showed third party + independent candidates don’t reach White House

3. personal characteristics

• traditional discussion points out all presidential candidates have been white males.

  • This disappeared in 2008 when the choice was between a black man (Obama) or a white woman (Hillary Clinton).

  • Given pools of recruitment it isn't surprising that until 2008 this was the case – and whilst Hillary Clinton was the first female presidential candidate for a major party in 2016 – the recruitment pools are still dominated by men.

• Being married is an advantage – only James Buchanan (1856) was a bachelor.

  • A scandal involving marital infidelity used to rule out potential candidates – but Clinton managed to secure the Democratic Party nomination despite allegations surrounding Gennifer Flowers.

  • Three of the Republican's last eight presidential candidates – Regan, John McCain and Trump have all divorced and remarried.

4. ability to raise large sums of money

• Crucial to a successful bid.

• Campaigns are expensive – and only billionaires (Ross Perot – 92; Steve Forbes 96 & 00) have been able to finance their own campaigns.

• Candidates have to raise the money before the primaries and caucuses begin - which means raising money the year before the election.

• According to opensecrets.org, Hillary Clinton raised just over $700m during her unsuccessful Presidency bid in 2016!

5. effective organisation

• During candidate selection process, major parties can’t endorse specific candidates

  • means candidates can’t use party's organisational structure either nationally or in each state

• have to create own organisation

  • time consuming

  • expensive

  • demanding

• consequences of not having effective organisation are dire for campaign

6. oratorical skills and being telegenic

• Abilities to speak well + look good on TV are crucial.

• Trump's mastery of media was important factor in 2016 victory

7. sound and relevant policies

• Danger is that presidential elections can be portrayed as all style + no substance.

• Candidates will get found out if campaign is 'policy free zone'.

• Trump was an exception – he did have key policies on immigration and jobs but was thin on policy detail and tended to just repeat the promise of 'Make America great again'.

how they work v. how it happened…