Page 1: Climate Risks in Williamsburg, VA

Key Issues

• Tidal Flooding: Rising sea levels allow tides to push inland, increasing the frequency of high tide flooding. This endangers low-lying properties and disrupts daily life through road closures and overwhelmed storm drains.

• Storm Surge: Increasing sea levels heighten the impact of storm surge, leading to severe flooding and property damage, erosion of beaches, and potential injuries or fatalities.

• Sea Level Rise: Over the past decades, Virginia has seen approximately one foot of sea level rise. Projections indicate an additional rise of 1 to 6 feet by 2070, threatening properties and reshaping the coastline.

Community Climate Outlook

• Adaptation and Planning: Effective community planning is crucial, particularly in areas with limited resources. Leveraging climate information can aid in decision-making to mitigate future hazards.

Future Climate Scenarios

• Two scenarios based on emissions forecasts:

  • RCP8.5: Higher-emissions scenario with no mitigative measures.

  • RCP4.5: Lower-emissions scenario with proactive reductions in fossil fuel emissions expected to stabilize concentrations by 2100.

Page 2: Temperature and Rainfall Changes

Temperature Patterns

• Increased Heat: Rising temperatures threaten public health, local fisheries, and infrastructure.

  • Expected rise to 38 to 60 days per year with temperatures above 95°F by 2070 (currently 12 days average).

• Heat-Related Illnesses: Extreme heat poses risks, especially for vulnerable populations including children, older adults, and low-income residents.

• Energy Demands: The urban heat island effect leads to increased air conditioning demand, straining power systems during heatwaves, risking blackouts.

Rainfall Patterns

• Increased Intensity: Heavy rainfall events are becoming more frequent, resulting in property damage and environmental issues.

  • Anticipated increase of 2 inches in annual rainfall (average 2050-2079 compared to 1990-2019).

• Flooding Impact: Overwhelmed drainage systems can cause severe flooding and water quality issues in wells and streams.

• Health Implications: Increasing humidity levels encourage mold growth and the spread of diseases carried by ticks and mosquitoes.

Conclusion

• Preemptive climate action and community resilience planning are essential to address these changes.