Chapter 1: Thinking Critically With Psychological Science

The Need for Psychological Science

Leading Objective Question: How does our everyday thinking sometimes lead us to a wrong conclusion?

Hindsight Bias: The tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it. **(**Also known as the I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon.)

Overconfidence

• Humans tend to think that we known than we actually do, tending to make us more confident than correct. Example
  • WREAT ---------> WATER
  • ETRYN ---------> ENTRY
  • GRABE --------> BARGE

Perceiving Order in Random Event

• We have a built-in eagerness to make sense of the world. Examples include:
  • Face on the Moon
  • Hearing Satanic messages in music
  • Or perceiving the Virgin Mary’s image in a grilled sandwich.
• People find patterns in random data because random sequences often don’t look random (Falk et al., 2009; Nickerson, 2002, 2005)
• This make it hard for people to generate random-like sequences

Summary: Hindsight bias, overconfidence, and our habit of looking at random events and finding patterns often tempt us to overestimate our intuition. WIth scientific inquiry, it can often help us filter reality from illusion.

Constructing Theories

LOQ: How do theories advance psychological science?

Theory: an explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes observations and predicts behaviors or events.

• We use theory in our everyday speech to mean “mear hunch”.
• A theory must be put to a test not matter how reasonable and logical it sounds

A theory of how sleep affects memory allows us to organize many observations into a short list of principles from the sleep-related observations.

• We analyze many points of data
• We might theorize that sleep improves memory

Hypotheses: a testable prediction, often implied by a theory

• Good theory’s are then produced to be predictions to be tested (a.k.a. hypotheses)
• These predictions would specify the results of the theory in question, as well as the results that would disconfirm it.
• Our theories can bias our observations

Operational Definition: a carefully worded statement of the exact procedures (operations) used in a research study. For example, human intelligence may be operationally defined as what an intelligence test measures.

Replication: repeating the essence of a research study, usually with different participants in different situations, to see whether the basic finding can be reproduced.

• Often an essential part of good science
• Researchers agree that more replications and greater transparency with benefit science
  • “Failure to replicate is not a bug;it is a feature. It is what leads us along the path-the wonderfully twisty path--of scientific discovery.” - Lisa Feldman Barrett, “Psychology Is Not in Crisis,” 2015
• A meta-analysis is an important tool in medical and psychological sciences.
  • It statistically combines the results of many studies to provide a base result.

Case Study: A descriptive technique in which one individual or group is studied in depth in the hope of revealing universal principles

Naturalistic Observation: A descriptive technique of observing and recording behavior in naturally occurring situations without trying to manipulate and control the situation

Survey; A descriptive technique for obtaining the self-reported attitudes or behaviors of a particular group, usually by questioning a representative, random sample of the group.

Wording Effects: Small and subtle changes in the order of wording of questions can have major effects

• People are more approving of “aid to the needy” than to “welfare”.

Random Sample: A sample that fairly represents a population because each member has an equal chance of inclusion.

Population: all those in a group being studied, from which samples may be drawn. (Note: This does not refer to the entire population of a certain country unless it is a national study.

Correlation

LOQ: What does it mean when we say two things are correlated and what are positive and negative correlations?

Naturalistic observations and surveys tend to show that a specific trait and/or behavior often coincides with another trait/behavior.

• In this instance, we say that these things correlate

A statistical measure (the correlation coefficient) helps us figure how closely two things vary together which allows us if one of the traits/behaviors predicts the other feature.

Correlation: a measurement of the extent to which two factors vary together, and thus of how well either factor predicts the other.

Correlation Coefficient: a statistical indeed of the relationship between two things (from -1.00 to +1.00)

Variable: anything that can vary and is feasible and ethical to measure

Scatterplot: a graphed cluster of dots, each representing the values of two different variables. The slope of the point suggests the direction of the relationship between the two variables. The amount of scatter suggests the strength of the correlation (little scatter indicates high correlations; high scatter indicates low correlation)

Illusory Correlation and Regression Toward the Mean

LOQ: What are illusory correlations, and what is regression toward the mean?

Correlations allow us to see relationships we may have not seen, as well as restrain “seeing” relationships that are nonexistent.

• We believe that if there is a relationship between two things, we will more likely notice and recall the times that confirm our idea.
• If we believe that actual events are forecasted by dreams, we may notice the instances that support our idea, while instances that don’t support your idea are more often unrecallable.

Illusory Correlation: perceiving a relationship where none exists, or perceiving a stronger-then-actual relationship

• This can feed an illusion of control--that events are under our own control
• A good example of this is gamblers recalling the times they have had luckily
  • This makes them believe that they can influence the roll of the dice

Regression Toward the Mean: the tendency for extreme or unusual scores or events to fall back (regress) toward the average

• The illusion that our actions correlate with uncontrollable events
• These results are more typical than extreme results.
  • This causes things to return to average after an unusual event ex.
  • Students score much lower or higher on a test than they would typically do, and when retested later, they return to their average score
• When regression is not recognized, many superstitions and ineffective practices develop ex.
  • A manager who just harshly criticized an employee for below-average performance, the manager may feel rewarded for giving “tough love” after the employee returns to their average performance

Summary: When a behavior returns to normal after inconsistencies, there are no big explanations of why it does so. This means that regression toward the mean is probably working.

Experimentation

LOQ: What are the characteristics of experimentation that make it possible to isolate cause and effect?

Experimental Manipulation

• Experiments allow researchers to isolate possible effects from one or more factors. This is done by:
  • Manipulating the factors of interest
  • Holding constant (controlling) other factors
• To do this they often create experimental groups that will receive the treatment, as well as control groups that don’t receive treatment.
  • Random assignment allows researchers to minimize the possibilities of preexisting conditions between the different groups.

Experiment: a research method in which an investigzator manipulates one or more factors (the independent variables) to observe the effect on some behavior or mental process (the dependent variable). By random assignment of participants, the experimenter aims to control other relevant factors.

Experimental Group: in an experiment, the group exposed to the treatment, that is, to one version of the independent variable.

Control Group: in an experiment, the group not exposed to the treatments; contrasts with the experimental group and serves as a comparison for evaluating the effect of the treatment

Random Assignment: assigning participants to experimental and control groups by chance, thus minimizeing preexisting differencense between the different groups.

Procedures and the Placebo Effect

• Our habit to seek new ways to treat illnesses or emotions can make misleading testimonies.
  • Ex. We may start taking zinc tablets three days into the cold and then the symptoms start to lessen. We might say that they tablets worked to lessen our cold, rather than the cold lessening naturally.
  • This is how new drugs and methods of psychological therapy are evaluated and tested.
  • Neither group knows if they received the real treatment, or the pseudotreatment (placebo) treatment, as well as the administrators of the treatment.
    • This is called a double-blind procedure
  • Researchers check the actual facts of the treatment apart from the belief of the participants’ and staff’s effectiveness
    • Knowing if got the real treatment, it may boost your spirit and cause symptoms that the treatment is claiming to provide

Placebo: Latin for “I shall please”

Effect: experimental results caused by expectations alone; any effect on behavior caused by the administration of an inert substance or condition, which is the recipient assu,es is an active agent.

Independent Variable: in an experiment, the factor that is manipulated, the variable whose effect is being studied.

Confounding Variable: a factor other than the factor being studied that might influence a study’s results.

Dependent Variable: in an experiment, the outcome that is measured; the variable that may change when the independent variable is manipulated.

Research Design

LOQ: How would you know which research design to use?

In psychological research, no questions are off-limits, except for untestable ones such as: Does free will exist? Are people born evil? Is there an afterlife?

• Psychologists then choose the most appropriate way to answer their question
  • This could be done by doing a research design such as: experimental, correlational, case study, naturalistics observation, twin study, longitudinal, or cross-sectionalthis lets them choose the most effective way
  • Psychologist then chose how to measure the behavior and/or mental process being studied.
  • Ex. Researchers testing aggressive behavior and actions of the participants by measuring the willingness to blast a stranger with a loud noise
  • Their results are carefully looking at any possible confounding variables

Predicting Everyday Behavior

LOQ: How can simplified laboratory conditions illuminate everyday life?

The purpose of an experiment is to not re-creatre the exact smae behaviors of everyday life, but test theoretical principles (Mook, 1983).

The principles of the visual system that researchers apply to more complex behaviors that have been developed through many experiments created in artificial settings.

Summary: Psychological science focuses less on specific behaviors than on revealing general principles that make it easer for us to understand many different behaviors.

Psychology’s Research Ethics

LOQ: Why do psychologists study animals, and what ethical guideline safegard human and animal research participants? How do pyschologoists’ values influence psychology?

Protecting Research Participants/ Studying and Protecting Animals

• Psychologists want to know and understand how many different species learn, think, and behave.
  • This helps psychologists learn more about people because we are not like animals only because we are animals.
  • These experiments allow us to lead for treatments for human diseases such as insulin for diabetes
  • The same process that lets us learn is also in rats, monkeys, and even sea slugs
• The debate of using animals to study many different theories from psychology, biolody, and medical research.
  • ALlowing reasearch to be done on animals can help develop and study reactions to different types of treatments before human trials
  • Not allowing research to be done on animals allows for less research and data to be collected.
• 98% of people support government regulations that protect primates, dogs, and cats
• 74% of people also supported regulations for the humane care of rats and mice
  • Many associations have guidelines
• Animals have benefited from animal research in some cases
  • One experiment meauresed stress hormone levels in millions of dogs who were in animal shelters. They then studied and developed a stroking method that reduced stress and make the transition to homes much easier.

Studying and Protecting Humans

Values have effects on what we study, how it is studied, as well as the interpretation of the results.

• Words we use to describe traits and behaviors and habits can be a reflections of our values

Psychology speaks to many of the problems within the world such as - war, hunger, crime, family crises- since all of these contain behaviors and attitudes

• It also lets us know of our deepest wants for happiness and love

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