Talking Points On Rwanda/Burundi

Rwanda/Burundi Talking Points

Executive Summary/Cover Brief

• Memorandum for Under Secretary of Defense for Policy.
• Through: Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs; Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Africa.
• Prepared by: LtCol Harvin.
• Subject: Talking Points On Rwanda/Burundi.
• Purpose: Information--Talking points for dinner with Mr. Kissinger.
• Action Officers in H&RA, PK/PE, and MEA collaborated on the attached talking points.

DOD Policy Options

• Focus on NEO (Non-combatant evacuation operation).
• State has not yet begun to look at its next steps re: U.S. Policy toward Rwanda and will not do so for a few days.
• DCM (Deputy Chief of Mission) Joyce Leader will brief at State tomorrow.
• Ambassador Rawson will remain in Burundi for a few days.
• The Burundi Government wants the additional US Marines in Bujumbura to depart as soon as all AmCits (American citizens) are out of Rwanda--we support that request. (State Rwanda TF).
• State will likely shut down its Rwanda Task Force NLT (no later than) Wednesday morning. (State Rwanda TF).
• State will initially limit itself to diplomatic statements in support of the UN, the French, the Belgians, and the necessity for both sides to resume the peace process.
• This crisis will likely raise questions at the UN about the wisdom of including lightly armed troops in a Chapter VI PKO (Peacekeeping Operation) instead of only unarmed observers.
• Unless both sides can be convinced to return to the peace process, a massive bloodbath (hundreds of thousands of deaths) will ensue that would likely spill over into Burundi.
• Millions of refugees will flee into neighboring Uganda, Tanzania, and Zaire, far exceeding the absorptive capacity of those nations.
• Since neither the French nor the Belgians have the trust of both sides in the conflict, they are unlikely to be able to convince the parties to return to the peace process--thus there will be role to play for the U.S. as the "honest broker."
• One of the primary U.S. representatives at the last round of peace negotiations was an ISA alum. LTC Tony Marley, who is assigned to the Africa Regional Affairs office at State. He is known and trusted by both sides and will likely be called upon to play a significant role once more if the peace process can be put in motion.
• When the peace process is back on track, we should resume our security assistance program.

Recent Security Assistance Summary (in Millions):

• FY91:
  • FMF: 0.0
  • Civic Action: 0.135
  • Biodiversity: 0.525
  • IMET/Direct Trng.: 0.060
  • IMET Students: 5
• FY92:
  • FMF: 0.0
  • Civic Action: 0.150
  • Biodiversity: N/A
  • IMET/Direct Trng.: 0.070
  • IMET Students: 4
• FY93:
  • FMF: 0.0
  • Civic Action: 0.0
  • Biodiversity: 0.525
  • IMET/Direct Trng.: 0.127
  • IMET Students: 8
• FY94:
  • FMF: 0.0
  • Civic Action: 0.0
  • Biodiversity: N/A
  • IMET/Direct Trng.: 0.075
• FY95 (Proposed):
  • FMF: 0.0
  • Civic Action: 0.0
  • Biodiversity: N/A
  • IMET/Direct Trng.: 0.150

Rwanda/Burundi - Questions and Answers

• What is State doing now?
  • Just beginning to look at next steps (DCM Leader will brief tomorrow).
  • Expect little beyond diplomatic statements.
• What next in Rwanda?
  • Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) will maintain 48-hour cease-fire to allow ex-pats to depart.
  • UN will likely withdraw all UN forces.
  • Following the 48-hour cease fire period, RPF forces will attempt to take Kigali and will come into open warfare with any remaining French, Belgian, or UN forces.
  • Civilians will increasingly be drawn into the conflict and fighting will likely spread to Burundi.
  • AmEmbassy Bujumbura is under "Ordered Departure" and is drawing down from its 46 official/31 dependents to essential personnel only (planning on 22, could drop lower).
  • Unofficial U.S. personnel normally number between 100-150, but many may have already departed.
• Will Burundi's newly democratic, Hutu-led Government fall?
  • Probably. Given the close tribal ties to the parties in Rwanda, it is highly likely that inter-tribal killings will spread.
  • A NEO should not be necessary given the prior warning foreign citizens are getting.
• Is the USG (U.S. Government) willing to get involved?
  • Not inside Rwanda or Burundi until peace is restored.
  • We played an important role in brokering the Arusha Accords.
  • As the only "honest broker" left on the field (given the intense hatred of Belgium by the Rwandan Hutus and of France by the Tutsis) we could (and should) play a critical diplomatic role in urging the parties to adhere to the Arusha peace agreement.
  • We would want to restart our security assistance program once the peace process is back on track.
• What is happening at the U.N.?
  • Security Council is meeting today to discuss future of UNAMIR, probably will take no action--everyone waiting for UNAMIR Commander's recommendations. USUN has not been given guidance.
  • There is some support in the USG for leaving the Commander and a small support staff in Kigali. He seems to be the only person who can talk to both sides.
• What are the humanitarian issues, and what can DoD do?
  • Since last Wednesday, 5,000 refugees have fled Rwanda to Zaire, 5,000 Burundi have fled to Tanzania in anticipation of more violence, and UNHCR in Tanzania is expecting 100-250,000 more.
  • UNHCR has refugee support: food in Zaire for 10 days. DoD may be asked to airlift relief supplies. If State requests, H&RA can provide MREs, Humanitarian Daily Rations, consumable medical and other supplies for disaster relief. Explicit supplies mentioned are MREs, Humanitarian Daily Rations, consumable medical supplies, and other supplies for disaster relief.