Effects of Public Opinion on Elections and Policy Debates

Learning Objective

• Explain the quality and credibility of claims based on public opinion data.

Public Opinion Impact on Elections

• Researchers utilize mass surveys to gauge public sentiment on numerous issues.

• Public opinion directly influences:

  • Election outcomes

  • Legislative support

• Candidates analyze polls to shape their campaign strategies.

Role of Public Opinion Polls

• Public opinion polls can have significant effects:

  • During primary debates, candidates are positioned based on polling numbers.

  • Higher-polling candidates occupy center stage, garnering more attention and speaking opportunities.

  • The "bandwagon effect" encourages people to support candidates perceived as likely winners.

  • Candidates with favorable polling find it easier to raise funds, reinforcing their viability.

Influence on Policy Debates

• Politicians often align their votes with public opinion:

  • Majority support for a policy encourages politicians to endorse it.

  • Voting against popular policies usually brings political repercussions.

• Recent trends indicate exceptions, such as GOP resistance to Biden's infrastructure plan without electoral consequences.

Reliability of Polls

• Public perception of poll reliability affects the influence of polling data:

  • Scientific polls, when conducted with rigor, yield accurate measures of public opinion.

  • Recent polling blunders, notably in the 2016 presidential election, have raised doubts about poll accuracy.

Case Study: 2016 Presidential Election

• Polls indicated a Clinton win, creating a widespread expectation of her victory.

• Trump unexpectedly secured the electoral college despite Clinton's lead in the popular vote.

  • Potential explanations for polling failure include:

    • Social Desirability Bias: Respondents may provide socially acceptable answers instead of truthful ones.

    • Non-Response Bias: Groups less likely to respond may skew results. Supporters of Trump, discontent with mainstream media, might have avoided polls.

Challenges Posed by Non-Scientific Polls

• Non-scientific polls, often biased and funded by partisan interests, distort public opinion representation:

  • Polls presented by biased organizations should be viewed skeptically.

  • Many Americans cannot distinguish between scientific and non-scientific polls, undermining trust in polling data.

Conclusion

• Understanding public opinion's influence on elections and policy is crucial for decoding electoral dynamics.

• Maintaining awareness of poll types and their implications is essential for informed civic engagement.