Environmental Hazards and Disaster Risk: Course Introduction and Global Trends

Course Introduction and Teaching Staff

• Sarah Beva Tokawingawa: Course coordinator. She specializes in disaster risk and resilience. Her particular research interest is in decision-making processes, specifically how to facilitate collaboration across different disciplinary cultures (e.g., physical sciences, social sciences, engineering) and various organizations or policy-making bodies.

• Jamie Schulmeister: A geomorphologist who studies changes on the earth's surface. His primary focus in this course is on hydrological hazards, specifically flood hazards, mapping, and modeling. He views insurance as a critical tool for global sustainability because it forces behavioral responses to environmental changes.

• Dave Frame: A climate physicist and "policy guru." He teaches the module on climate change and extreme weather phenomena. He provides a unique perspective that combines a physical science background with policy administration.

• Georgie: The head tutor for the course. She is based in Nelson and manages the tutoring team, lab enrollments, and assignment issues.

• Christy Lee Thomas: A guest lecturer joining this year to teach a specific module on Indigenous disaster risk and resilience.

Course Structure and Philosophy of Interdisciplinarity

• The course is described as the only undergraduate interdisciplinary course of its kind at the university, integrating physical science, social science, and policy studies.

• Interdisciplinary Necessity: Problems like climate change, sustainability, and disaster risk are caused by complex, interdependent systems. Understanding these requires more than one discipline.

• Expertise vs. Familiarity: While instructors are familiar with other disciplines, they maintain genuine expertise in their own. For example, Sarah (social science) would not teach geomorphology, and Jamie (geomorphologist) would not teach a sociology course.

• Teaching Modules:

  • Module 1 (Hydrological Hazards): Led by Jamie Schulmeister. Focuses on flood risk, mapping, modeling, and the role of insurance.

  • Module 2 (Climate Change): Led by Dave Frame. Covers extreme weather phenomena, sea-level changes, and coastal hazards.

  • Module 3 (Society and Policy): Led by Sarah Beva Tokawingawa. Discusses global theories of disaster risk, societal impacts, recovery, and the science-policy interface.

Assessment and Administration

• Labs: Do not begin until Week $3$. Georgie manages the lab schedule and tutor recruitment.

• Assessment Breakdown:

  • In-course Assessments: Two assessments, each tied to a specific lab.

  • Final Exam: Accounts for $40\%$ of the total grade. The exam is divided equally between the three modules (Hydrological, Climate, and Social Science).

  • Exam Format: Students have a choice between two questions for each module.

• UCSA and Class Reps: The University of Canterbury Student Association (UCSA) manages the class representative system. Class reps act as liaisons between students and lecturers. Volunteers for this course are Lucy and Madeline.

Defining Hazard and Disaster (UNDRR 2017)

• A critical part of interdisciplinary work is resolving "disciplinary misunderstandings," where different fields use the same word to mean different things (e.g., the term "abstract").

• Hazard: Defined by the UNDRR ($2017$) as a process, phenomenon, or human activity that may cause loss of life, injury, health impacts, property damage, social/economic disruption, or environmental degradation. Hazards are potential events.

• Disaster: A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or society. It occurs when a hazard interacts with:

  • Exposure: The spatial overlap of the hazard and the human community.

  • Vulnerability: Susceptibility to harm.

  • Capacity: Strengths/resources to resist impacts.

• Environmental Hazards Hierarchy:

  • Environmental Hazards: Primarily associated with environmental processes.

  • Anthropogenic Hazards: Predominantly or entirely caused by human activity.

  • Socio-Environmental Hazards: A combination of human and natural drivers.

Economic Drivers and Human Behavior in Risk Zones

• Auckland Case Study: Real estate data ($July\,2024$) showed home values in high-flood-risk zones were rising faster than others. This is attributed to "bargain hunting," where buyers trade risk for affordability. These homes were often discounted by $\$70,000$ to $\$100,000$.

• Landlord Involvement: In both Auckland and the Christchurch post-earthquake "TC3" zones, many high-risk properties were purchased by landlords rather than owner-occupiers.

• Brisbane Floods ($2011$): Jamie noted that riverside properties in Brisbane are highly desirable. Following a major flood, prices dropped for $1$ to $2$ years but quickly recovered. Some owners were flooded twice within $4$ years.

• Social Disadvantage: The groups most affected by these trends are the socially disadvantaged—renters or those who cannot afford to buy anywhere else—as they are forced into higher-exposure areas.

• Human Memory: Social science suggests that human memory of disasters is relatively short, often lasting approximately $5$ years before people assume the event will not happen again.

Global Trends in Disaster and Data Sources

• EM-DAT: A global database managed by the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), largely based on data from major insurance companies who track insured losses.

• Increasing Trends: Global data shows a steady upward trend in the frequency of disaster events and the resulting economic losses (both insured and uninsured).

• New Zealand Insurance Anomaly: Approximately $90\%$ of New Zealand's housing stock is insured against disaster damage, primarily due to the Natural Hazards Commission (formerly EQC) and bank mortgage requirements. This is drastically higher than other countries like Chile ($27\%$), Japan ($19\%$), or the US ($15\%$).

• Drivers of Global Increases:

  • Population Increase: More people are living in hazardous areas.

  • Rapid Development: Increasing exposure of infrastructure on vulnerable land.

  • Climate Change: Increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

Geophysical Hazards: Tectonics and Tsunami Risk

• Plate Tectonics History: Continental drift was proposed in the $1910s$, but modern Plate Tectonics theory only emerged in the $1960s$. It was initially very controversial; Jamie recalls a professor as late as $1982$ who refused to believe the theory.

• Hikurangi Subduction: A major fault line where the Pacific plate dives under the Australian plate off the East Coast of the North Island. It is described as looking like a "whale diving" under the ground when visualized.

• Tsunami Characteristics: A tsunami is not just a wave but a debris flow.

  • Wavelength: Often hundreds of kilometers long.

  • Duration: Can take $15$ to $20$ minutes for the full wave to pass a single point.

  • Near-Source Threat: For large ruptures on the Hikurangi fault, some coastal communities may have only $10$ minutes to evacuate.

• Earthquake Mortality: Large damaging earthquakes are rare but remain the most deadly geophysical hazard globally.

Climate Drivers: The Southern Annular Mode (SAM)

• New Zealand's weather is heavily influenced by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).

• Negative SAM: Historically associated with colder periods (glaciation events) where the subtropical front extends further north, crossing the South Island and Patagonia.

• Current Trends: Global warming is forcing a "contracting circulation" toward Antarctica. This scrunches the subtropical front closer to the pole, changing weather patterns in New Zealand over the last $20$ years.

• Cyclone Decay: Warming temperatures are leading to more "decaying cyclones" moving south toward the North Island, contributing to extreme weather events occurring as frequently as every $3$ weeks.

Questions & Discussion

• Question regarding Stats requirement: A student asked if taking statistics is required for the course.

  • Response (Sarah): No, the requirement is routinely waived because students come from diverse backgrounds, including policy, police, and emergency management, and may not have a formal stats background.

• Question regarding Lab enrollment: A student mentioned they were not yet in a lab.

  • Response (Sarah/Georgie): There is no rush; students have three weeks to sort this out as labs do not begin until Week $3$. Georgie is still recruiting tutors.