Multi-Tier Investment Strategy & Portfolio Notes

Fundamental Investment Thesis

  • Speaker stresses the necessity of a solid, well-articulated “investment thesis” before committing capital.
    • Rejects herd mentality: “my neighbour bought it,” “an influencer said so,” or “it’s fallen a lot so it must rebound.”
    • Without a thesis, investors are “destined to lose money” because most market participants actually lose.
  • Three sample theses shown on screen (two more revealed later) illustrate the structured thinking behind each position.

Five Investment Types Overview

  • The video revolves around five distinct ways the speaker invests (plus two special classes revealed later):
    1. Swing trades
    2. Core holdings / “Demirbaş”
    3. Moon shots
    4. Super core holdings (Süper Demirbaş) – introduced later
    5. Ultra-short tactical / adrenaline trades – introduced later
  • Each type differs in:
    • Holding period
    • Risk tolerance
    • Position sizing
    • Monitoring intensity
    • Stop-loss & exit rules

Investment Type 1: Swing Trades

  • Definition & Rationale
    • Targets temporarily undervalued equities where price drop is deemed unjustified (economic hiccups, one-off earnings miss, management error, macro headwinds, product flop, etc.).
    • Belief in a near-term mean reversion once catalysts play out.
  • Holding Horizon: 6!\text{–}!12\ \text{months}. If the thesis has not played out by then, speaker exits.
  • Not considered “long-term growth” stories; objective is a tactical rebound.
  • Real-world examples
    • 2022 Meta Platforms entry <!100\,\$; Wall St. feared over-spending on Metaverse. Speaker bought call options around \sim86\,\$,$ exited near 300\,\$,$ realising a large gain.
    • Current PayPal swing: entered \sim90\,\, stock slid to 60\,\ (speaker held despite violating own stop; faith in new CEO & turnaround).
    • Present Bitcoin position is also a swing, not a long-term accumulation (keeps only one BTC long term).
  • Execution Style
    • Usually one-shot bulk purchase to capture fleeting discount.
    • Frequently uses options to limit capital outlay while amplifying payoff.
    • May add small follow-ups if scenario improves.
  • Portfolio Cap: does not exceed 15\% of total portfolio; typically 3!–!5 positions.
  • Stop-Loss Rule
    • Hard stop ≈ 25!\%\text{–}30\% below entry price.
    • Admits occasional discretionary override (e.g., PayPal, Intel earlier).
  • Exit Rule
    • Sells once the forecasted “swing” materialises (price + narrative).
    • Accepts missing further upside (Meta ran to 500\,\ after exit).

Investment Type 2: Core Holdings (“Demirbaş”)

  • Essence
    • Companies expected to grow revenue & EPS steadily for years due to strong moat, management, beloved products, or disruptive tech.
  • Holding Horizon: 1\text{–}5\ \text{years}.
  • Allocation & Accumulation
    • Starts with a small lump-sum, then regular dollar-cost-averaging (DCA) until a pre-set budget is exhausted.
    • Volatile stocks → spread purchases over longer period to smooth cost; stable stocks → shorter period.
  • Current examples
    • NVIDIA – AI chips dominance, secular demand.
    • Nubank (NU) – Latin-American digital bank with vast runway.
  • Portfolio Share: target 25\% (ceiling \approx30\%) across 5!–!10 holdings.
  • Stop-Loss & Trim Policy
    • Begins trimming if price falls >25\% below average cost; exits fully if >50\% drawdown unless thesis still intact.
    • During sharp, unjustified rallies, may sell part and rebuy lower (did so with NVIDIA near 1000\,\, re-entered <800\,\).
  • Monitoring Intensity
    • Daily news scan, every earnings (10-K/10-Q) read, product usage tests, fan-base sentiment, management commentary.

Investment Type 3: Moon Shots

  • Character
    • Early-stage, high-risk tech disruptors that could become the next Tesla/Apple/Amazon but have high failure odds.
  • Holding Horizon: \ge5\ \text{years} (time to validate tech & monetise).
  • Example Positions
    • Rocket Lab – developing Neutron heavy rocket.
    • Recursion Therapeutics – AI-driven drug discovery.
  • Sizing & Diversification
    • Total moon-shot bucket \le5\% of portfolio.
    • Spread across 10!–!20 names because most will fail (e.g.
    • EGX delisted from Nasdaq).
    • Small initial buy, may add if technical milestones achieved (e.g., Neutron launch progress).
  • Stop-Loss
    • Generally looser; may tolerate \pm40\% swings; sometimes no hard stop because long-term optionality.
  • Exit
    • Sell if management churn, tech setbacks, or thesis invalidated.
    • Successful moon shots can “graduate” to Core (e.g., TMDX – started as moon shot, now core after repeated strong quarters).

Portfolio Allocation Framework

  • Target weights (flexible, “not divine law”):
    • Swing Trades: \le15\%
    • Core Holdings: 25\%\text{–}30\%
    • Moon Shots: \le5\%
    • Super Core (see below): no fixed cap; invests whenever cash available.
    • Adrenaline Short-Term Trades: negligible / opportunistic.
  • Rationale: limits downside from uncertain buckets while letting conviction names compound.

Stop-Loss and Exit Strategies (Consolidated)

  • Warren Buffett maxim: “Rule 1 — don’t lose money; Rule 2 — remember Rule 1.”
  • Swing: sell \sim25\% below entry (manual override possible).
  • Core: begin trimming >25\% drop, forced exit >50\% drop.
  • Moon: flexible, softer \sim40\% band due to volatility.
  • Selling into strength:
    • Swing – when catalyst is priced in.
    • Core – rare; only on euphoric spikes, intention to rebuy lower.
    • Moon – exit if thesis disproven; hold if tech validated.

Monitoring and Research Routines

  • Swing & Moon: check monthly (news, tech updates).
  • Core: daily news, every filing, alternative data, product trials, fan forums, management calls.
  • Super Core: near-obsessive; speaker can “step in as an executive.”
  • General recommendation: analyse before investing and track continuously to avoid misinterpreting price noise as fundamentals.

Educational & Community Resources Mentioned

  • YouTube “Katıl” Memberships
    • Daily voice notes on earnings, macro events, company news.
    • Written weekday bulletin “Piyasalar ve Hisseler Günlüğü” – market movers, company-specific news (Apple, Coinbase, Mercado Libre, Novo Nordisk, etc.).
    • Tiered access: higher tier includes live streams; lower tier can watch recordings later.
  • Haddin Aşk Kulübü
    • Access to all above plus WhatsApp community (~650 investors).
    • Channels: “Bora ne diyor?” alerts, Q&A, technical analyses, off-topic “geyik” room (lifestyle, living abroad, tech talk).
  • Emphasis: no investment advice – purely educational.

Special Category: Super Core Holdings (“Süper Demirbaş”)

  • Not part of original trio; revealed later.
  • Traits
    • Speaker’s “lifetime partnership” stocks; sees himself as a co-owner.
    • Unlimited budget – keeps adding as long as he earns money.
    • Defensive of them on social media.
  • Current Trio
    1. Tesla – largest position.
    2. Palantir – strong conviction, excellent cost basis.
    3. (Third unnamed, implied new).
  • Management Depth
    • Knows products, customers, CEO biographies, strategic roadmaps “almost like an insider.”
  • Position Architecture
    • Split into ultra-long-term lot (never touched, cost \sim15!–!17\,\$) and tactical sub-lots for swing/hedge.
    • May short small amounts pre-earnings if expecting bad quarter to offset pain on core holding.
  • Purpose: Multi-decade wealth transfer to children.
  • Revocation Clause: If conviction shattered, will demote/remove.

Short-Term Tactical & Adrenaline Trades

  • Conducted via QuantFury (commission-free).
  • Instruments: single stocks (e.g., Tesla, NVIDIA), ETFs (e.g., \text{QQQ}), macro prints (CPI, etc.).
  • Horizon: days to weeks; purely speculative; success odds lower due to noise.
  • Current Plan
    • Accumulating NVIDIA up to its next earnings date.
    • Accumulating Tesla until 8\,\text{Aug}$$ FSD/robotaxi announcement.
    • Aim: flip short-term gain into added long-term stock.

Key Takeaways & Philosophical Principles

  • Diversify by strategy, not just by ticker; each bucket has unique rules.
  • Pre-define thesis, entry, exit, stop, and monitoring cadence – heuristics impose discipline and learning.
  • Information edge grows from relentless research; price alone is misleading.
  • Flexibility: rules are guidelines, not constitution; discretionary overrides allowed but acknowledged.
  • Risk budgeting: cap exposure where probability of failure is high (moon shots) to keep overall portfolio health.
  • Education & Community: continuous learning via videos, notes, and peer discussion strengthens investor mindset.
  • No advice disclaimer – viewers must craft personal strategy; speaker’s record includes wins and losses.