Contemporary American History: Economic Shifts, Immigration, and Culture Wars

The Perspective of History and the Challenge of Contemporary Analysis

• The Problem of Perspective: As events approach the present day, historians have significantly less perspective on their long-term importance. It is difficult to distinguish between what is truly significant and what is merely ephemeral.
• The Hand Metaphor: Looking at recent history is likened to holding one's hand close to one's eyes. At a distance, the lines and contours of the hand are clear; however, the closer it is brought to the eyes, the more the image becomes blurred. Similarly, very recent events are difficult to evaluate clearly.
• Methodology for Understating Recent Events: The lecture aims to provide a tentative understanding of contemporary America by connecting current developments to historical themes and issues previously discussed in the course.
• Three Major Focal Points:
      * Economic developments over the last $30$ years (Are we in a new Gilded Age?).
      * Social change and the hot-button issue of immigration.
      * Political polarization and the "culture wars" of the $21 ext{st}$ century.

A New Gilded Age: Economic Developments Since the late $1980$s

• Economic Transformation: Much like the late $19 ext{th}$ century Gilded Age transformed the United States from an agricultural nation to a modern industrial nation with a corporate economy, the period since the late $1980$s and early $1990$s has seen an equally dramatic transformation.
• Propellants of Economic Change:
      * Globalization: Driven largely by the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the closed economic systems represented by communism.
      * Technological Advances: The rapid development and dissemination of digital electronics.

Globalization and the Expansion of Trade

• Collapse of Communism: The disintegration of the Soviet Union and the fall of communist regimes in Eastern Europe opened previously closed markets to international trade. These nations adopted market economies, expanding global commerce.
• Emergence of New Powerhouses: The economic rise of India and China, and their subsequent opening to global trade, significantly fueled globalization.
• U.S. International Trade Growth: There has been exponential growth in U.S. trade patterns. When comparing data from $1960$ to $2014$, the increase is dramatic and visible on historical trend lines.
• The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA): Signed in $1994$, this agreement abolished trade barriers between the United States, Mexico, and Canada, reflecting the government's embrace of global trade.
• Financial Deregulation: In the $1990$s, the U.S. government deregulated financial markets, facilitating the ease of moving capital across international borders.

Technological Advances and the Transformation of Daily Life

• Key Innovations: The development of the internet, the ubiquity of personal computers, and rapid advances in electronic communications have transformed the economy.
• Communication Evolution: The transition from landline phones to mobile "flip phones" and eventually to smartphones.
• Computing Power Comparison: Modern smartphones possess approximately $170,000$ times more computing power than the Voyager space probe, which was launched in $1977$ and is currently in interstellar space.
• E-commerce: Digital technology has fundamentally changed consumer behavior, leading to the rise of buying and selling products and services online in the early $21 ext{st}$ century.

Prosperity and Inequality: Parallels to the Original Gilded Age

• The "Gilded" Concept: The term "Gilded Age" implies a society with a glittering, wealthy exterior that masks underlying social discontent and rottenness.
• Signs of Prosperity:
      * A soaring stock market since the $1990$s.
      * High corporate profits.
      * Creation of vast personal fortunes and the proliferation of billionaires.
      * Modern-Day "Robber Barons": Figures like Bill Gates (founder of Microsoft) and Warren Buffett (investor), as well as contemporary figures like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, are compared to industry titans Andrew Carnegie and John D. Rockefeller.
• The Downside of the New Economy:
      * Multinational Corporations: Defined as U.S.-owned companies that operate in other countries. The number of U.S. multinational corporations grew from $8,000$ in $1970$ to $80,000$ by $2006$.
      * Outsourcing: To maximize profits and minimize costs (lower wages, fewer regulations, no health care or pension benefits), companies close U.S. factories and move manufacturing to Eastern Europe, Mexico, and Asia.
      * Impact on Workers: The loss of high-paying manufacturing jobs leads to higher unemployment and wage stagnation as workers compete for a smaller pool of lower-paid jobs.

The Populist Backlash and the $2016$ Election

• Economy of Resentment: Many Americans feel the current economic and political system favors the wealthy and politically powerful, leaving middle- and lower-class citizens behind.
• Similarities to Gilded Age Criticism: Just as late $19 ext{th}$-century cartoons depicted monopolies wrapping their tails around the Capitol building, modern critics argue that lobby groups and the rich control the political process.
• The $2016$ Presidential Campaign: The election reflected a growing populist backlash. Both Donald Trump (Republican) and Bernie Sanders (Democrat) utilized rhetoric centered on economic resentment, despite their different political affiliations.
• Shared Rhetoric: Both candidates focused on high-powered lobbying, the influence of money in politics, and the belief that the system is "broken" or "rigged" against the average person.

Social Change: Immigration and Changing Demographics

• Population Growth: The U.S. population has expanded massively since $1877$, when the course began.
• Changing Composition:
      * White Population Decrease: Constituted $85\%$ of the population in $1960$, dropping to $64\%$ by $2010$.
      * Hispanic/Latino Growth: A significant and visible trend in the demographic data.
      * $2050$ Projection: Demographers predict that by $2050$, no single racial or ethnic group will hold a numerical majority in the United States.
• The Immigration Act of $1965$:
      * Replaced the discriminatory $1925$ law that used quotas to favor European immigrants.
      * Permitted more legal immigration and allowed legal residents to bring in immediate family members.
      * Shifted the origin of immigrants from primarily European to predominantly Latin American and Asian.
• The Debate over Identity:
      * Contemporary controversies revolve around whether the U.S. is a "nation of immigrants" open to all or a nation that must restrict immigration to preserve its character.
      * Historical Parallel: This mirrors the early $1900$s when native-born white Protestants feared Catholic and Jewish immigrants from Southern and Eastern Europe could not be assimilated.

Political Polarization and the New Culture Wars

• Political Violence in Context: While recent events, such as assassination attempts on Donald Trump, feel unprecedented, they are part of a long history of American political violence.
      * Gilded Age Assassinations: James Garfield and William McKinley.
      * $1960$s Assassinations: John F. Kennedy ($1963$), Malcolm X ($1965$), Martin Luther King ($1968$), and Robert Kennedy ($1968$).
• Statistics on Polarization:
      * The number of self-described liberals and conservatives has doubled since the $1990$s.
      * The number of Democrats and Republicans who view the opposing party "highly unfavorably" has tripled since the $1990$s.
      * Spousal politics: In $1960$, people rarely cared about the politics of their child's spouse; by $2010$, this became a major concern.
• Culture Wars: A term coined by Pat Buchanan during a famous speech at the Republican National Convention in $1992$.
      * Features a "combative" language of "war" where the opposition is seen as an enemy to be destroyed.
      * Focuses on non-negotiable moral and values-based issues: abortion, feminism, homosexuality, transgender issues, and immigration.
      * Difficulty of Compromise: Unlike economic policy (e.g., debating a minimum wage increase of $1.00$ vs. $1.50$), cultural issues involve fundamental clashes of worldview where middle ground is hard to find.
• Historical Roots: Modern culture wars are seen as an incarnation of the debates of the $1920$s (religious conservatives vs. secular liberals regarding evolution) and the response to the social/cultural movements of the $1960$s.

Questions & Discussion

• Student Question on the $2016$ Candidates: A student correctly identified Donald Trump's quote from the $2016$ election by noting his frequent use of the word "horribly" and his criticism of the previous democratic administration.
• Discussion on Political Violence:
      * Instructor's Question: Does the attempted assassination of the president indicate that the United States is falling apart or that political violence has reached unprecedented levels?
      * Student Response (Mason): Mason suggested that political violence is just the