GPSP Lecture 5 notes

Referenda, Migration and Euroskepticism

The relationship between referenda, migration policies, and Euroskepticism is of significant interest in the context of EU politics. This framework is important in understanding public sentiment and voting behaviors regarding EU membership and policies.

Second-Order Elections

• Defined as elections that have lower stakes compared to the general elections.

• European Parliament elections are seen as second-order elections, creating different political dynamics.

Voter Turnout Trends

• European elections in recent years show fluctuating voter turnout rates.

• Key data points:

  • Belgium and Luxembourg exhibited high turnout of around 70% in 2019.

  • Other countries like Hungary and Portugal show lower turnout nearing 30-40%.

• Observations on Brexit’s impact on voter turnout patterns.

Trends in Voter Participation by Demographics

• Younger generations are generally less likely to participate in elections, impacting overall turnout.

• Analysis highlights gender differences in voting behavior across various age groups.

Life Cycle Effects in Voting

• Voting behavior can be influenced by age.

• A curvilinear relationship exists: highest participation in middle age, lower in youth and old age.

• The role of life transitions such as family formation affects political participation.

Age Gap in Political Participation

• Low turnout among the youngest eligible voters near the early 20s.

• Participation gradually increases through adulthood but may decline again as individuals reach their sixties.

• Four explanations for age effects:

  • Interests and Preferences: Younger citizens often have less defined political interests. Limited life experience with taxes, public services, or regulations. Interests solidify with career and life developments.

  • Value Formation Fluidity: Younger people have less fixed opinions and value structures. Less informed on party differences on key issues.

  • Internalization of Societal Norms and Adult Roles: Adult responsibilities bring social expectations (e.g., family, homeownership). Engagement with civic duties increases with maturity.

  • Changing Social Networks and Peer Influence: Peer pressure in school/family differs from professional environments. Older adults may have fewer social interactions due to health and mortality, affecting turnout.

Millennial Voting Trends

• Unusual patterns where millennial voters in the UK and US do not follow traditional paths of political conservatism as they age.

• Differing political alignments as compared to previous generations, suggesting shifting political landscapes.

Structure of Opinion on Elites and European Integration

• Voter opinions vary by age, political orientation, party preference, educational attainment, political knowledge.

• Less educated and older individuals tend to be more eurosceptic.

• Particularly in the Netherlands, PVV supporters exhibit strong europhobic tendencies.

Concerns of Democratic Legitimacy in EU Governance

• Transfer of Power: Policy-making authority is increasingly shifted from national governments to the EU.

• National Level: "Politics without policy" – there’s heated political competition in elections, but important policy decisions are made in Brussels.

• EU Level: "Policy without politics" – major decisions are made at the EU level without direct influence from competitive elections or party politics.

Rejection of European Integration

• Reason for Joining: Countries joined the EU to gain benefits from regional economic and political integration, leading to a widening of the EU.

• Challenges to Democracy: Pooling of Sovereignty: EU treaties have increasingly transferred decision-making power from national governments to the EU.

Democratic Deficit

• Weak role of citizens in EU decision-making.

• National parliaments have reduced influence on EU policies and limited accountability over prime ministers or ministers negotiating in EU meetings.

• Disconnect between policy-making at the EU level and democratic control at the national level.

No Demos Argument

• Lack of Common European Identity: No shared "nation" or political culture exists across the EU, which limits the formation of a European public sphere.

• Outputs of Integration: The EU's legitimacy relies on delivering public goods, such as:

  • Peace, stability, economic growth, trade barriers removal, balance against globalization and capitalism's extremes.

Arguments from Moravcsik and Majone

• The democratic deficit may be overstated because EU decision-making is often limited to secondary issues, whereas primary concerns (e.g., welfare, education, healthcare) remain under national control.

Size and Democracy

• Robert Dahl and Edward Tufte’s Analysis (1973):

  • Input Legitimacy: Political participation and representation tend to function better in smaller democracies.

  • Output Legitimacy: Larger governmental units (like the EU) are better equipped to provide services and address complex societal issues.

Improving Democracy in the EU

• EU Elections as Second Order: Often seen as less impactful compared to national elections.

• Strengthening National Parliaments' Scrutiny: Increasing the ability of national parliaments to oversee EU decisions.

• Subsidiarity Principle: Ensuring decisions are made as close to the citizens as possible, only involving the EU when necessary.

Natives vs. Non-Natives (Immigrants)

• Immigrants make up 5% of the EU population.

• Challenges to Social Cohesion: Immigrants are perceived as challenging cultural norms.

• Unregulated Entry: Concerns over the lack of control in immigration flows.

• Security of Public Spaces: Immigrants are often linked to fears over public safety.

• Welfare State Burden: Seen as a strain on welfare, especially labeled as “undeserving.”

• Labor Market Competition: Especially intense at the lower end, creating competition between native and immigrant workers.

• Exploitation of Immigrants: Immigrants may face exploitation due to vulnerable status.

• Housing Market Competition: Immigrants add pressure to the availability and affordability of housing.

Vote Propensity

• Refers to the likelihood a respondent will vote for a particular party.

• Left-Wing Vote Propensity: These voters support north-to-south financial transfers and socioeconomic redistribution within Europe.

• Right-Wing Vote Propensity: These voters oppose such transfers and redistribution across Europe.

“Squeezed Middle” and EU Sentiment

• The squeezed middle class often holds anti-EU views, feeling that EU integration undermines national democracy.

Brexit Drivers

• Education, Social Class, and Nationalism: Education level, social class, and English nationalism (emotional identity) were significant drivers of Brexit.

Types of Eurosceptic Voters

• Anti-Immigration Eurosceptics:

  • Profile: Mostly lower-educated, low political interest, and knowledge.

  • View on EU: Opposed to the EU as a whole, primarily due to concerns over immigration.

• Anti-Market Eurosceptics:

  • Profile: Generally from the traditional or radical left.

  • Ideology: Support socio-economic redistribution; oppose austerity measures and EU restrictions on national budget deficits.

• Pro-Sovereignty Eurosceptics:

  • Profile: Mostly from the “squeezed middle” or lower-middle class.

  • Ideology: Economic nationalism and pro-business orientation, emphasizing national sovereignty.

The Netherlands and Euroscepticism

• Founding Member of EU: The Netherlands is one of the EU's six founding members.

• Historically Pro-EU: The country has typically held positive views towards the EU.

• Rise of Euroscepticism:

  • 2005: National referendum rejects the European Constitution, showcasing Eurosceptic attitudes.

Predictors of Voting Behavior on EU Treaties

• Issue-Based Theory: Eurosceptic attitudes and fears of provoking Russia.

• Second-Order Theory: Dissatisfaction with the Dutch government and general political discontent.

• 2016 Referendum: Anti-EU grassroots movements initiate a referendum on the EU-Ukraine association treaty, focusing on:

  • Key Concerns: Economic impact, cultural identity, sovereignty, immigration, and Russia (geopolitical concerns).

  • Campaign Focus: Opponents emphasized risks like job losses, immigration, national identity, provoking Russia, and loss of national sovereignty.

Political Positions

• Pro-Treaty: Supported by government parties VVD, PvdA, and most centrist/left opposition (D66, CDA, CU, GL).

• Anti-Treaty: Opposed by radical right (PVV) and radical left (SP, PydD).

Predictors of Voting on the EU-Ukraine Treaty

• Education: Higher-educated individuals are more likely to support the treaty, while lower-educated individuals are more likely to oppose it.

• Knowledge of the Treaty: Greater knowledge of treaty contents correlates with a higher likelihood of voting in favor.

• Socio-Tropic Evaluations: Not significant in all models but show that:

  • Those who feel the country is doing well tend to favor the treaty.

  • Those who feel the country is doing poorly tend to oppose it.

• Personal Economic Situation: Consistently important: voters who manage income comfortably are more likely to support the treaty, while economic dissatisfaction aligns with opposition.

• Interaction of Economy and Knowledge:

  • Low Knowledge: Voters with less knowledge who believe the economy is strong tend to support the treaty.

  • High Knowledge: Voters with more knowledge who believe the economy is weak are also inclined to support the treaty.

• Cultural Threat: Strong opposition to immigration is linked with higher likelihood of voting against the treaty.

Additional Myths and Considerations

• Participation Myth: Low turnout is problematic: distorted representation of opinions.

• Knowledge Myth: Knowledge increases can provide substantive and accurate information and not pure propaganda; often the knowledge gap increases inequality.

• Deliberation Myth: Referenda are polarizing; there is little to no space for moderacy in political debates.

• Decision Myth: ?

• Democratic Control Myth: Referendums give citizens a more direct influence on political outcomes than elections.

Protecting minorities is crucial since often the most valid opinions may not represent the majority, which can reflect a voiced minority. Consensus democracies, as described by Arend Lijphart, are 'kinder and gentler.' Complexity reduction reveals public discourse does not reflect the complexity of issues (e.g., Brexit).