voting behaviour and media

Voting Behaviour

Introduction to Voting Behaviour

  • Definition: Voting behaviour refers to the factors that influence how and why people choose to vote for a particular political party.

  • Complexity in the UK: In recent years, voting behaviour in the UK has become increasingly complex due to various factors.

    • Traditionally, social class, age, region, ethnicity, education, and gender shaped predictable voting patterns.

    • Modern voters are less tied to a single party and less likely to vote according to their demographic group.

  • Influential Factors: Major national events, perceptions of party competence, and attitudes toward issues (like Brexit) have become more important than demographic factors.

Factors Affecting Voting Behaviour in the UK

Social Class and Voting Behaviour

  • Definition of Social Class: A way of grouping people based on economic and social status, which includes factors such as job type, income, and education.

    • Social class historical alignment:

    • Working-class voters traditionally aligned with the Labour Party.

    • Higher-earning middle-class voters and the upper-class traditionally aligned with the Conservative Party.

  • Class Dealignment:

    • Definition: The weakening of the link between a person’s class and the traditional party they would have been aligned with.

    • Partisan dealignment: A long-term decline in voter loyalty to just one party.

  • Current Class Definition: In contemporary UK, class is defined by occupation, divided into ‘social bands’:

    • AB: Higher and intermediate managerial, administrative or professional roles

    • C1: Supervisory or junior managerial, administrative or professional roles

    • C2: Skilled manual workers

    • DE: Semi- and unskilled manual workers and unemployed

Class Dealignment in Recent Elections

  • Recent electoral trends have shown class dealignment, where voters do not vote according to expected social bands.

  • Example: In the 2024 general election, some traditional voting patterns were challenged but still reflected the significance of national circumstances.

Age and Voting Behaviour

  • Trend: Younger voters have leaned towards left-wing parties, whereas older voters typically support right-wing parties.

  • Statistics:

    • 1979: 18-24 year-olds cast 42% of their votes for Conservatives, this dropped to 5% in 2024.

    • 1979: 38% of 65+ year-olds voted Labour, dropping to 23% in 2024.

    • The 18-24 year-old vote for Labour remained around 40% from 1979-2024, whereas support for Conservatives among 65+ stayed around 45%.

  • Voter Turnout: Older voters are more likely to vote than younger ones, with less than half of 18-24 year-olds voting in 2024 versus over three-quarters of those over 65.

Region and Voting Behaviour

  • Red Wall and Blue Wall: Historic voting patterns where Labour dominated the north (red wall) and Conservatives fared better in the south and south-east (blue wall).

  • Example: In 2019, several ‘red wall’ seats fell to the Conservatives.

  • 2024 Trends: Several blue wall seats fell to the Labour Party, reflecting changing regional dynamics.

  • London Voting: Labour achieved a 43% vote share in London amidst consistently electing Labour mayors.

Ethnicity and Voting Behaviour

  • Demographics & Trends:

    • The Labour Party typically garners strong support from ethnic minorities, while the Conservative Party's support is generally stronger among white voters.

    • 2024 Data:

    • White voters: Labour - 33%, Conservative - 26%.

    • Ethnic minority voters: Labour - 46%, Conservative - 17%.

    • Asian voters: Labour - 39%, Conservative - 18%.

    • Black voters: Labour - 68%, Conservative - 16%.

  • Recent Changes: Between 2019 and 2024, the Conservative Party saw a 22% drop among white voters, while Labour experienced an 18% drop among ethnic minorities.

Education and Voting Behaviour

  • Connection to voting trends: Education level has shown a significant influence on voting behaviour:

    • Those with no qualifications leaned towards Labour in previous elections, while higher education graduates began supporting Conservative; this shifted since Brexit.

    • 2024 Statistics:

    • None: Labour - 28%, Conservative - 39%.

    • Degree or higher: Labour - 43%, Conservative - 19%.

  • Graduate Voter Trends: Graduates were more likely to support ‘Remain’ in the Brexit referendum and later Labour. School-leavers showed increased support for Leave and subsequently Conservative.

Gender and Voting Behaviour

  • Historical Trends: Women historically leaned towards left-leaning parties, while men leaned towards right-leaning.

  • 2024 Data:

    • 34% of men and 35% of women voted Labour.

    • 23% of men and 26% of women voted Conservative.

  • Age Relationship: Younger women are more likely to vote Labour, while older women tend to vote Conservative.

Parties & Voting Behaviour

Key Concepts

Issue, Valence and Governing Competence

  • Issue Voting: Voters select parties based on trust on salient issues.

    • Example: In 2017, many voters distrusted Labour more than the Conservatives due to perceived competence on Brexit.

  • Valence Issue: All major parties agree on the goal (e.g., improving the NHS). Voters look at which party can best achieve it.

  • Governing Competence: Governments might be rewarded or punished based on their economic performance (e.g., John Major’s government suffered due to economic crises).

Leadership and Party Image

  • Influence on Elections: Charismatic or competent leaders can significantly shape election outcomes.

    • Successful examples: Tony Blair in 1997, Boris Johnson in 2019.

  • Leadership Failures: Negative perceptions can arise from controversial actions (e.g., Theresa May avoiding TV debates in 2017).

Media Influence and Campaign Events

Role of Media in Elections

  • Media as Informant: Provides information about political parties and their policies during elections.

  • Types of Media Sources:

    1. Television: Primary for older audiences; popularity declining among youth.

    2. Newspapers: Declining readership but remains influential among older demographics.

    3. Social Media: Growing among younger voters; 52% of adults used it for news in 2024.

    4. Radio: Minimal impact in the top 20 news sources.

Opinion Polls

  • Definition: Surveys estimating public opinions on political issues.

  • Arguments For: Help parties target resources, gauge voters' sentiments, and identify potential swing areas.

  • Arguments Against: Can demobilize supporters, misestimate turnout, and create self-fulfilling prophecies.

Media's Importance

  • Election Coverage: Often predominates during election time, though its impact on voter decision is debated.

  • Agenda Setting: The media influences public perception of issues through headlines and coverage.

  • Televised Debates: Can shift leader perceptions, but overall impact is uncertain.

Tactical Voting and Scandals

  • Definition: Tactical voting involves choosing a party to block another party rather than voting for the first choice.

  • Influence of Scandals: Scandals can drastically affect public trust and electoral outcomes (e.g., Partygate scandal).

Case Studies on Elections

Case Study: The 1979 Election

  • Outcome: Conservative Party under Margaret Thatcher won decisively.

  • Vote Share: Conservatives - 44%, Labour - 37%, Liberal - 14%.

  • Context: Labour was unpopular due to economic failures and the Winter of Discontent.

  • Voting Patterns: High turnout (76%) reflecting crisis sentiments; Conservatives gained among skilled workers indicating class dealignment .

  • Factors: Economic distress, leadership perception (Callaghan perceived as ineffective), and media framing played key roles.

Case Study: The 1997 Election

  • Outcome: Labour under Tony Blair achieved a landslide victory.

  • Vote Share: Labour - 43%, Conservative - 31%, Liberal Democrat - 17%.

  • Context: Took place after 18 years of Conservative rule; backlash against mismanagement.

  • Voting Patterns: Significant urban gains for Labour, especially among educated younger voters.

  • Factors: Fatigue with Conservatives, Blair's modernized image, and media endorsements significantly influenced results.

Case Study: The 2010 Election

  • Outcome: Resulted in a hung parliament and first coalition government since 1974.

  • Vote Share: Conservative - 36%, Labour - 29%, Liberal Democrats - 23%.

  • Context: Followed the 2008 financial crisis, contributing to decreased trust in all major parties.

  • Factors: Economic context and governmental image crucial; Labour blamed for the crisis despite earlier successes.

Case Study: The 2024 Election

  • Outcome: Keir Starmer led Labour to a landslide despite a modest vote share.

  • Vote Share: Labour - 34%, Conservative - 24%, Liberal Democrats - 12%.

  • Context: Political turmoil following Covid-19 and scandals, diminishing public trust in Conservatives.

  • Factors: Economic pressures, unstable leadership, and strategic repositioning by Labour.

  • Impact: Demonstrated ongoing shifting voting patterns and the growing influence of third parties, with significant challenges confronting Labour post-election.