Analysis of the Bundestag Elections 2025

Analysis of the Bundestag Elections 2025

Imprint

  • Publisher: Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung e.V.

    • Address: Godesberger Allee 149, 53175 Bonn

    • Email: info@fes.de

  • Responsible for content and editorial matters: Catrina Schläger

  • Contact: catrina.schlaeger@fes.de

  • Orders: apb-publikation@fes.de

  • Data collection and quality control: Finia Ehrentraut and Marko Miljevic

  • Copyediting: Sönke Hallmann

  • Translation: James Patterson

  • Design: Bergsee, blau (picture alliance/Andreas Franke)

  • Printing and production: Hausdruckerei Bonn, FES

  • Date: February 2025

  • Views expressed do not necessarily represent those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

  • FES publications cannot be used for election campaign purposes without written permission.

Table of Content

  1. Introduction

  2. What are the main results?

  3. Who voted for whom?

    • 3.1 Clear differences in voting behaviour between east and west

    • 3.2 Left-leaning women and right-leaning men?

    • 3.3 A lot of volatility among the youngest

    • 3.4 Significant shifts in voter behaviour by occupational group and education

  4. How did the election campaign go?

    • 4.1 Little movement in the opinion polls

    • 4.2 A hot winter campaign?

    • 4.3 The missing candidate effect

    • 4.4 Focus on the campaign

    • 4.5 Recapturing the digital space?

  5. What has changed in comparison with the previous election?

    • 5.1 It’s about something: highest voter turnout since reunification

    • 5.2 A look at the electoral districts with the highest and lowest turnout

    • 5.3 Voting by post: popular but made more difficult by shorter deadlines

    • 5.4 Voter migration

    • 5.5 Who mobilised former non-voters?

    • 5.6 Impact of a new electoral law: second votes and orphan constituencies

    • 5.7 Decline in the number of marginal constituencies

  6. What do the results mean for government formation?

  7. What might hinder the upcoming coalition negotiations?

  8. Bibliography

  9. List of figures

  10. About the authors

  11. Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Information

1. Introduction

  • The 2025 Bundestag elections resulted in significant political change in Germany.

  • The past coalition government, known as the ‘traffic light coalition,’ suffered from various issues:

    • Lack of public trust due to the war in Ukraine and the energy price crisis.

    • Internal conflicts among coalition partners diminished support.

  • Election results reflected this discontent:

    • All traffic-light coalition parties faced severe voter backlash.

    • The SPD (Social Democrats) experienced its worst result in history at 16.4%, a loss of 9.3 percentage points.

    • The Greens faced setbacks, while the FDP (Free Democrats) did not secure seats.

    • The CDU (Christian Democratic Union) is now the strongest party, but recorded a low percentage of votes.

  • The AfD (Alternative for Germany), considered far-right, became the second-largest party, which may intensify debates in Bundestag.

  • Die Linke (The Left) made significant gains, reflecting shifting voter dynamics.

  • The elections resulted in high voter turnout due to pressing issues, with the AfD excelling at mobilising former non-voters.

2. What are the main results?

  • The 2025 elections marked a turnaround from the political landscape of 2021.

  • Post-coalition elections saw nearly a 20% vote drop for the coalition parties.

  • The current party standings reflect:

    • CDU: 28.5% (+4.4%), positioned as the strongest party but beneath the 30% goal.

    • AfD: 20.8% (doubled its votes), now the second party in the Bundestag.

    • SPD: 16.4% (historical low), leading to a decrease in parliamentary representation (120 MPs).

    • BSW: narrowly missed Bundestag representation.

    • FDP: 4.3% (did not win seats).

  • Significant shift from 7 parties represented previously to 5 parties in the Bundestag.

  • Overall, results show potential for greater instability or polarization in parliamentary discourse.

3. Who voted for whom?

3.1 Clear differences in voting behaviour between east and west

  • The SPD faced especially significant losses in eastern Germany, now polling at only 12%.

  • CDU/CSU and AfD had similar popularity both in eastern and western regions.

  • Voting behavior changes highlight disparities in regional engagement and support.

3.2 Left-leaning women and right-leaning men?

  • Gender dynamics showed left-wing parties particularly favored by female voters, with SPD at 18% among women but less popular among men.

  • AfD received more support from men (24%) compared to women (18%).

3.3 A lot of volatility among the youngest

  • Young voters (18-24 age group) predominantly sided with Die Linke (25%), with the AfD also seeing support (21%).

  • There was a marked decline in support for the Greens and FDP among younger audiences.

3.4 Significant shifts in voter behaviour by occupational group and education

  • The CDU/CSU and AfD gained significantly among workers and those with lower educational backgrounds.

  • SPD fell to third amongst these demographics.

4. How did the election campaign go?

4.1 Little movement in the opinion polls

  • Polling data showed limited fluctuation across the campaign, while some parties like Die Linke gained marginal support.

4.2 A hot winter campaign?

  • Campaigns were driven by external events—particularly rising concerns around migration and the economy shaped public discourse.

  • CDU called for stricter migration policies, indirectly supported by interactions with the AfD.

4.3 The missing candidate effect

  • Candidate unpopularity impacted voter sentiment, leaving many voters undecided going into the elections.

4.4 Focus on the campaign

  • Various parties shifted their messaging to respond to prevalent fears regarding the economy and social security.

4.5 Recapturing the digital space?

  • Significant investments made in online campaigning by all parties, particularly on Meta platforms and Google.

  • Engagement analytics showed a notable rise in interactions across social media platforms, especially for Die Linke, SPD, and the Greens against prior trends dominated by AfD.

5. What has changed in comparison with the previous election?

5.1 It’s about something: highest voter turnout since reunification

  • Voter turnout reached a record 82.5% (almost 50 million voters), marking significant engagement.

  • Comparative turnout in previous years showcases rising interest despite historical lows in participation.

5.2 A look at the electoral districts with the highest and lowest turnout

  • Highest turnout in urban centers like Munich, Cologne, and key regions.

  • Contrastingly, lower voter turnout observed in segments traditionally supporting SPD and BSW.

5.3 Voting by post: popular but made more difficult by shorter deadlines

  • The approach to postal voting transformed, yet procedural challenges limited accessibility in comparison to preceding elections.

5.4 Voter migration

  • Voter migration data indicates substantial shifts in constituencies among traditionally supporting parties showcasing a loss for the SPD and potential gains for the AfD.

5.5 Who mobilised former non-voters?

  • The AfD effectively mobilised non-voters (approx. 1.8 million), much more than other parties, indicating strong outreach efforts.

5.6 Impact of a new electoral law: second votes and orphan constituencies

  • New electoral rules established fixed limits on Bundestag size, leading to candidates not attaining seat despite leading in direct votes based on insufficient second votes.

5.7 Decline in the number of marginal constituencies

  • Results indicate less political volatility in some constituencies with fewer races deemed 'marginal' compared with previous elections.

6. What do the results mean for government formation?

  • A coalition consisting of two parties is required for governance due to the new electoral results.

    • The SPD faces challenges as its traditional stronger positioning deteriorates.

  • Potential coalition options mainly revolve around CDU/CSU partnering with SPD, as other combinations are politically contentious.

7. What might hinder the upcoming coalition negotiations?

  1. Fractured positioning after contentious debates during the election.

  2. The significant role of the AfD as the largest opposition party may lead to instability in parliament.

  3. The possible exclusion of other coalition partners (AfD, Die Linke) limits negotiating leverage.

8. Bibliography

  • Sources and research referenced throughout the election analysis.

9. List of Figures

  • Figures visually illustrating key statistics, trends, and results.

10. About the Authors

  • Brief biographies of authors involved in the analysis.

11. Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Information

  • Overview of the organization, its foundation, and its ongoing commitment to the principles of social democracy and political engagement.