Climate Change Politics and Governance

Brief History of Climate Change Politics

  • Climate change has a long political legacy, despite being considered a new issue.
  • Key issues and conflicts in international negotiations:
    • 1992 UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change)
    • 1997 Kyoto Protocol
    • 2015 Paris Agreement
  • Discussion is organized around three features of climate governance:
    • Role of science and the scientific community
    • Evolving North–South politics
    • Increasing marketization of climate governance

Making Policy on Climate Change: Actors and Institutions

  • International negotiations involve key actors, institutions, and decision-making processes.
  • Three critical international organizations:
    • UNFCCC Secretariat (Bonn, since 1996):
    • Organizes and oversees negotiations.
    • Prepares documentation.
    • Oversees emissions reporting.
    • Provides organizational support and technical expertise.
    • Facilitates information flow.
    • Shapes negotiation outcomes.
    • Guiding negotiations toward a successful conclusion is the executive secretary's responsibility.
    • Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC:
    • Serves as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement.
    • Meets annually to review progress and update commitments based on scientific advice.
    • Ultimate decision-making body.
    • Subsidiary Bodies (SBI and SBSTA) and Ad Hoc Working Groups:
    • Advance negotiations on specific issues.
    • Examples: Ad Hoc Working Group on the Paris Agreement.
  • Governments organize themselves into blocs and negotiating coalitions to enhance influence and advance common agendas.

Key Coalitions and Negotiating Blocs:

  • OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries):
    • States most hostile to climate action due to revenue dependence on oil exports.
    • Tactics:
    • Demanding greater scientific certainty before action.
    • Forming alliances with businesses opposed to action.
    • Using wrecking tactics (e.g., calls for compensation for loss of oil revenue).
    • Removing or diluting fossil fuel references in negotiating texts.
  • AOSIS (Alliance of Small Island States):
    • Coalition of island states vulnerable to sea-level rise.
    • Most strident in demands for emission reduction targets.
    • Proposed a protocol in 1995 mandating a 20% cut in 1990 emissions by 2005.
    • Worked with FIELD (Foundation for International Environmental Law and Development) for legal advice.
  • Climate Vulnerable Forum (formed in 2009):
    • Made up of leaders of countries most vulnerable to climate change effects (initially 11 leaders).
  • Least Developed Countries (LDCs) grouping (46 nations):
    • Especially vulnerable to climate change, but have contributed the least to the problem.
  • G77 + China coalition:
    • Emphasized the North's primary contribution to climate change.
    • Sought to deflect calls for commitments from the South.
    • Ensured funds were additional to existing aid money.
    • Continues to provide a platform for shared concerns, though now more fragmented.
  • European Union:
    • Keen to see a stronger agreement aligned with its target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to at least 55% below 1990 levels by 2030.
  • United States:
    • Position has vacillated between opposition to legally binding cuts to GHGs (Bush Sr., Bush Jr., and Trump administrations) and being more open to them (Obama and Biden administrations).
  • Japan:
    • Position between the US and EU.
    • Host to the summit that produced the Kyoto Protocol, but often a reluctant leader due to industry pressure.
  • BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa):
    • Growing power apparent at the Copenhagen summit in 2009.
    • Brokered the Copenhagen Accord with the US, leaving out the EU.
  • US-China shuttle diplomacy:
    • Used in advance of major COPs to secure commitments to raise ambition and increase finance.
    • Cooperation is nearly impossible without their active engagement.
    • At Glasgow COP26 in 2021, a joint declaration was made on enhancing climate action toward the 1.5 degree target, including the establishment of a working group.
  • Non-governmental, business, and other organizations:
    • Participate in the process, though without formal voting rights.
    • Allowed to make interventions and admitted onto government delegations.
    • Act as non-governmental diplomats: representing interests, exchanging information, negotiating, and providing policy advice.
    • Participation is uneven; the majority are based in Europe and North America.
    • COP26 in Glasgow in 2021 saw 40,000 registered participants, including party delegates, observers, and media representatives.
  • Non-state actors (cities and businesses):
    • Increasingly recognized for contributions to addressing global warming.
    • The UN’s Global Climate Action portal lists 20,453 actors representing 29,673 actions.

Climate Change Policy Milestones

  • Governance has progressed from scientific concern to a collective global effort orchestrated by the UN.
  • Deepening cooperation and firming up of obligations to act.
  • Increasing use of market or flexible mechanisms to achieve emission reductions.
    • Trading of carbon and use of “offsets”.

Global Governance of Climate Change: A Short Chronology

  • 1988: World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere: Concluded that humanity is conducting a globally pervasive experiment.
    • Recommended reducing CO2CO_2 emissions by 20% by 2005.
  • 1990: IPCC publishes its First Assessment Report.
  • 1991: The Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee is set up to oversee negotiations toward an international agreement
  • 1992: 154 countries sign the UNFCCC at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio, which aims to stabilize emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000 as part of overall goal to stabilize GHG “concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system.”
  • 1994: The UNFCCC enters into force on 21 March.
  • 1995: The first COP agrees in Berlin that binding commitments by industrialized countries are required to reduce emissions.
    • IPCC publishes its Second Assessment Report, which suggests that “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influ- ence on global climate.”
  • 1996: The second COP in Geneva sees the United States agree to legally binding targets to reduce emissions as long as emissions trading is included in an agreement.
  • 1997: More than 150 countries sign the Kyoto Protocol which binds 38 industrialized (Annex 1) countries to reduce GHG emissions by an average of 5.2% below 1990 levels during the period 2008–2012.
  • 2000: The negotiations at the sixth COP in The Hague collapse amid disagreements, principally between the United States and Europe, about the use of the Kyoto Protocol’s flexibility mechanisms.
  • 2001: US president George Bush announces that his country is to with- draw from the Kyoto Protocol.
  • 2001: In Marrakesh, the final elements of the Kyoto Protocol are worked out, particularly the rules and procedures by which the flex- ible mechanisms will operate.
  • 2004: The Buenos Aires Programme of Work on Adaptation and Response Measures is agreed at COP10.
  • 2005: On 16 February, the Kyoto Protocol becomes law after Russian ratification pushes the emissions of ratified Annex 1 countries over the 55% mark.
    • The first Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol takes place in Montreal at COP11.
  • 2006: At the Second Meeting of the Parties (COP12), the Nairobi Work Programme on Adaptation and the Nairobi Framework on Capacity- Building for the CDM are agreed.
  • 2007: The IPCC publishes its Fourth Assessment Report.
    • At COP13, the Bali Action Plan is agreed, which calls for a long- term goal for emission reductions; measurable, reportable, verifiable mitigation commitments including nationally appropriate mitiga- tion actions by LDCs; enhanced adaptation, action on technology development and transfer, and financial resources and investment to support the above.
  • 2009: The COP15 takes place in Copenhagen amid pressure to “seal the deal” on a new legally binding agreement. Instead, a small group of countries negotiated the Copenhagen Accord, which other parties would only “note” the existence of. Industrialized nations committed to provide developing nations with US3030 billion of “new and additional” fast-track funding between 2010 and 2012, as well as US100100 billion per year by 2020 to be channeled through a Green Climate Fund.
  • 2010: COP16 agrees the “Cancún agreements” which seek to keep the negotiations on track in the areas of adaptation, forests, climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity building in the wake of the fiasco at Copenhagen.
  • 2011: In Durban at COP17, governments committed to adopt a univer- sal legal agreement on climate change as soon as possible, but not later than 2015 to come into effect in 2020. A new group called the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action takes this forward.
  • 2014: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report is published.3 It concludes that “Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems. Their effects, together with those of other anthropogenic drivers, have been detected throughout the climate system and are extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.”
  • 2015: COP21 secures the Paris Agreement under which parties pro- vide Nationally Determined Contributions aimed at keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees compared with pre-industrial levels. The Agreement includes provision for a stocktake of commitments to review progress toward the goals of the agreement.
  • 2018: IPCC Special Report on 1.5 degrees (SR15) shows that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees requires “transformative systemic change” and that while transitions are underway in various countries, achiev- ing this target will require a greater pace and scale of change across all sectors of the economy.
  • 2021: COP26 in Glasgow produces a declaration which for the first time mentions fossil fuels. A series of other statements are also produced on issues such as forests and methane and fossil fuel finance.
  • 2022: IPCC Sixth Assessment Report is published. It concludes that it is only possible to avoid warming of 1.5°C or 2°C if massive and immediate cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are made. WGII reported that climate impacts are at the high end of previous estimates, with all parts of the world being affected. Around 40% of the world’s population now fall into the most serious category of “highly vulnerable,” with the worst effects being felt in the developing world.

UNFCCC (1992)

  • Agreed at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) summit in Rio.
  • First major milestone in climate diplomacy.
  • Provided a framework for global action.
  • Sought to emulate the ozone regime's success.
    • Vienna Convention: Established the problem's nature and basis for action.
    • Montreal Protocol: Agreed a phase-out of ozone-depleting chemicals.
  • Set the goal of “avoiding dangerous interference in the climate system”.
  • Established the principle of “common but differentiated responsibility”.
  • Developing countries' efforts were dependent on aid and technology transfer from Northern countries, “additional” to existing aid budgets.

Kyoto Protocol (1997)

  • Signed by more than 150 countries.
  • Binds 38 industrialized (Annex 1) countries to reduce GHG emissions by an average of 5.2% below 1990 levels during 2008–2012.
  • Fixed differentiated targets for industrialized countries.
  • Setup an emissions trading scheme (ETS), and create a Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).

Paris Agreement

  • Strengthen the global response to climate change.
    • Keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the tem- perature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
  • It is the first universal agreement that has obligations for all, doing away with the separation between developed and develop- ing countries.
  • Net zero by 2050: Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible and for a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of GHGs by the middle of the century.
  • Requires all Parties to put forward nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and to strengthen these efforts in the years ahead.
  • There will also be a global stocktake of these NDCs every 5 years to assess the collective progress toward achieving the pur- pose of the agreement. The first of these will take place in 2023.
  • The importance of averting, minimizing, and addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change is recognized.
  • Non-state actors are encouraged to scale up their efforts and showcase them via the Non-State Actor Zone for Climate Action.
  • Creates a renewed role for carbon trading through a new Sustainable Development Mechanism.
  • Provides for an enhanced transparency framework for action and support including subjecting reports to technical expert review.
  • Entered into force in November 2016.
  • 193 Parties out of 197 Parties to the Convention are Parties to the Paris Agreement.

COP6 (The Hague, 2000)

  • Negotiations failed due to a rift between the EU and the US.
  • The US walked away from the Kyoto Protocol in 2001.

Subsequent Negotiations

  • Focused on implementation and enforcement of Kyoto and the Paris Agreement.
  • Marrakesh Accords (COP7):
    • Established rules and procedures for flexible mechanisms (CDM).
    • Details on reporting and methodologies.
    • Established the Least Developed Countries Fund, the Special Climate Change Fund, and the Adaptation Fund.

Bali Action Plan (COP13)

  • Set the path for negotiations toward Copenhagen.
  • Called for a long-term goal for emission reductions.
  • Measurable, reportable, and verifiable mitigation commitments.
  • Enhanced adaptation, action on technology development and transfer, and financial resources and investment.

COP15 (Copenhagen, 2009)

  • Failed to agree a new legally binding agreement.
  • A “Copenhagen Accord” was produced by a small number of powerful countries.
  • Established the aim of limiting warming to 2 °C compared with pre-industrial levels.
  • The failure to advance progress left the negotiations in disarray.

Paris Agreement (2015)

  • A universal legally binding agreement.
  • Shifted emphasis from top-down targets to bottom-up commitments (Nationally Determined Commitments).
  • The function is to ensure these commitments are collectively sufficient to keep warming well below 2 degrees with the aspiration to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees.
  • Regular five-yearly reviews are meant to ensure that the international community achieves net zero emissions by the second half of the century.
  • Key outstanding issues include the conclusion of a rulebook for carbon trading; the need to address production limits on fossil fuels; and the need to increase finance for adaptation.

COP26 (Glasgow, 2021)

  • Greater clarity was secured on the modalities of carbon trading.
  • Fossil fuels were mentioned for the first time in a conference text.
  • References to a phase-out of coal were watered down to a “phase down”.
  • “Inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies got a mention.
  • Governments are still planning to produce around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.
  • New national climate pledges combined with other mitigation measures put the world on track for a global temperature rise of 2.7°C by the end of the century.
  • COP27 in Sharm-El Sheik agreed to a new loss and damage fund.
  • This raises the issue of whose land and nature we are imagining will be set aside for these com-mitments to enable richer countries and companies to keep emitting.

Science and Climate Governance

  • The greenhouse effect was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824.
  • Svante Arrhenius first investigated the greenhouse effect quantitatively in 1896.
  • Basic science behind the greenhouse effect:
    • Particular atmospheric gases increase the amount of energy retained in the earth’s atmosphere.
  • The IPCC was established in 1988 to provide expert input into the climate negotiations.
  • Successive reports provided a consolidated knowledge base about three dimensions of the climate change problem:
    • The science and the basic causal mechanisms.
    • Impacts.
    • Response strategies: economic, technical, and policy implications.
  • Working groups have been created to provide policymakers with the latest research in each of these areas.
  • The work of the IPCC has been heavily politicized.
  • Scientific knowledge is used by all actors to advance and defend their position.
  • Decisions about whose knowledge counts, who wields authority, and how knowledge is presented and framed are deeply political processes.
  • “Climate-gate” scandal involving the illegal accessing and release of hundreds of e-mail communications from the accounts of researchers at the University of East Anglia’s prestigious Climate Research Unit appeared to provide fodder for these claims, though subsequent hearings which acquitted the climate scientists of any wrong- doing received far less public exposure than the damaging claims made at the time of the release of the e-mails.
  • One of the key issues here is not only that politics get played out through science, but the way science is used politically.

North-South Politics

  • Climate change highlights North–South divisions.
  • Early discussions focused on differentiating between “survival” emissions and “luxury” emissions.
  • Climate change is an issue of social justice and equity.
  • The UNFCCC embodies the notion of “common but differentiated responsibility”.
    • Everybody has a responsibility to act, but some have more responsibility than others.
  • The language in the UNFCCC embodies this notion of “common but differentiated responsibility”.
    • Aid and technology transfer provide what economists would refer to as side-payments: inducements to cooperate in tackling a problem to which, historically speaking, they have contributed very little.
  • Concerns continue to be expressed about the USD100100 billion that richer countries committed to providing for climate mitigation and adaptation annually by 2020, but have so far failed to deliver and are not expected to do so until 2023 at the earliest.
  • Increasing emphasis on flexible market mechanisms forced developing countries to assess how they might engage and benefit from engagement.
  • The newly industrializing powerhouses of China, India, Brazil, Malaysia, Mexico, and South Korea now make their own significant contribution to the problem.
  • Concerns about rapidly industrializing competitors being able to free-ride on the sacrifices made by richer countries.
  • Concerns about carbon leakage.
  • Increasing recognition prompted demands to draw competitors into a global regime of regulation and controls on GHGs.

Marketization of Climate Governance

  • Increasing emphasis on market-based solutions. Referred to as