ECC 7

System Transitions: Land, Ocean, and Ecosystems

IPCC System Transitions

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identifies several key system transitions:

  • Land, Ocean, and Ecosystems Transition
  • Urban, Rural, and Infrastructure Transition
  • Energy System Transition
  • Cross-Sectoral System Transition

Attribution of Climate Change Impacts

Key Components

The diagram illustrates the attribution of climate change impacts across various systems, connecting greenhouse gas emissions to physical changes and their effects on human systems and ecosystem services. Key components include:

  • Climate Change: The central driver.
  • Greenhouse Gases: The primary cause.
  • Physical Changes: Resulting from climate change, affecting both ocean and land.
  • Ecosystems: Impacted by physical changes.
  • Human systems and ecosystem services: Ultimately affected by changes in ecosystems.
Ocean Impacts

Details include temperature, oxygen levels, ocean pH, sea ice extent, and sea level. Impacts on marine ecosystems such as coral reefs, coastal wetlands, kelp forests, rocky shores, the deep sea, and sea-ice-associated ecosystems are noted. These changes affect fisheries, tourism, habitat services, transportation/shipping, cultural services, and coastal carbon sequestration.

Regional Specifics

Regions include the Maldives, temperate zones, tropical zones, the Arctic, and Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS1), with specific data for the North and South Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, as well as the Southern, Indian, and Tropical Indian Oceans.

Legend
  • Physical changes: Increase (yellow/green), decrease (blue/red), increase and decrease (mixed).
  • Systems: Positive (beneficial), negative (adverse), positive and negative (mixed), no assessment.
  • Attribution confidence: High, medium, low.

Explanation of Figure 5.24

Synthesis of observed regional hazards and impacts in ocean (top) and high mountain and polar land regions. Assessed in SROCC. For each region:

  • Physical changes.
  • Impacts on key ecosystems.
  • Impacts on human systems and ecosystem function and services are shown.
Physical Changes

Yellow/green refers to an increase/decrease, respectively, in amount or frequency of the measured variable.

Impacts on Ecosystems, Human Systems and Ecosystems Services

Blue or red depicts whether an observed impact is positive (beneficial) or negative (adverse), respectively, to the given system or service.

Cells assigned ‘increase and decrease’ indicate that within that region, both increase and decrease of physical changes are found, but are not necessarily equal; the same holds for cells showing ‘positive and negative’ attributable impacts.

Confidence Level

For ocean regions, the confidence level refers to the confidence in attributing observed changes to changes in greenhouse gas forcing for physical changes and to climate change for ecosystem, human systems, and ecosystem services. For high mountain and polar land regions, the level of confidence in attributing physical changes and impacts at least partly to a change in the cryosphere is shown.

No assessment means: not applicable, not assessed at regional scale, or the evidence is insufficient for assessment.

Physical Changes Definitions
  • Temperature change in 0–700 m layer of the ocean except for Southern Ocean (0–2000 m) and Arctic Ocean (upper mixed layer and major inflowing branches).
  • Oxygen in the 0–1200 m layer or oxygen minimum layer.
  • Ocean pH as surface pH (decreasing pH corresponds to increasing ocean acidification).
Ecosystem Definitions
  • Coral: Warm-water coral reefs and cold-water corals.
  • Upper water column: Epipelagic zone for all ocean regions except Polar Regions, where the impacts on some pelagic organisms in open water deeper than the upper 200 m were included.
  • Coastal wetland: Includes salt marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses.
  • Kelp forests: Habitats of a specific group of macroalgae.
  • Rocky shores: Coastal habitats dominated by immobile calcified organisms such as mussels and barnacles.
  • Deep sea: Seafloor ecosystems that are 3000–6000 m deep.
  • Sea-ice associated: Includes ecosystems in, on and below sea ice.
  • Habitat services: Refer to supporting structures and services (e.g., habitat, biodiversity, primary production).
  • Coastal Carbon Sequestration: Refers to the uptake and storage of carbon by coastal blue carbon ecosystems.
Ecosystems on Land
  • Tundra: Tundra and alpine meadows, and includes terrestrial Antarctic ecosystems.
  • Migration: Refers to an increase or decrease in net migration, not to beneficial/adverse value.
  • Impacts on tourism: Refer to the operating conditions for the tourism sector.
  • Cultural services: Include cultural identity, sense of home, and spiritual, intrinsic and aesthetic values, as well as contributions from glacier archaeology.

Tourism: Pros

  • Can increase economic activity.
  • Can create and sustain jobs.
  • Can attract investment.
  • Can contribute to the balance of payments.
  • Can help to keep local businesses viable.
  • Can regenerate and restructure economies where industries are in decline.
  • Can reduce poverty.

Sustainable Tourism

  • Generally found to be a good driver of economic growth.
  • Can be one of the enablers of achieving the SDGs if it brings resources to host communities and does not compromise the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (sustainability).
Tourism in SDGs
  • Goal 8, target 8.9: Promoting sustainable tourism that creates jobs and promotes local culture and products.
  • Goal 12, target 12.b: Monitoring development impacts on sustainable tourism.
  • Goal 14, target 14.7: Increasing the economic benefits to small island developing States from the sustainable use of marine resources.

Tourism: Cons

  • Overexploitation by the tourism sector is a serious threat.
  • Climate change and extreme weather events have detrimental impacts on the tourism sector (sea level rise, cyclones, typhoons).
  • Positive development impact of tourism must be increased by policies.

Tourism Policies in LDCs

Policy Options
  1. Generating production links to the local economies: Green and Blue tourism, community-based tourism activities / culture-based tourism
  2. Green tax initiatives: supporting environmental conservation as well as the sustainable livelihood of local populations, greening the tax systems by reallocating funds towards projects and activities to enhance environmental sustainability or to correct for externalities caused by tourism
  3. Common branding, with a clear marketing strategy promoting Pacific cultures as a whole, collective negotiation between Pacific LDCs as one group and their development or trade partners
  4. Targeted fiscal and monetary measures to support local businesses, especially tourism-related ones

Example: Maldives

Economic Development

The GDP per capita fluctuated between 1995 and 2020, demonstrating economic development related to tourism.

Key Points
  • Maldives’ tourism sector was central to the country’s graduation from the least developed country status in 2011.
  • Tourism goods and services tax accounted for 30% of the government’s tax revenue in 2018.
  • Maldives’ strategy of tourism development has been oriented towards high-end resort tourism.
  • Maldives mainly attracts tourists from Asia and Europe.
  • Concept of “one island, one resort”, with over-water villas and spas offering a first-class experience, thus making Maldives a premium destination.
  • Types of holidays: Resort-based holidays, beach holidays, wedding-honeymoon holidays and water sports, such as diving and snorkeling.
Tourism Act of 1979
  • Suitable business environment to attract foreign investments.
  • Set measures to account for environmental and social sustainability of the tourism sector.
  • Tries to encourage local communities to be part of the sector, in terms of employment and investment.
Master Plan 1996-2005
  • Decentralized tourism activities away from the capital to spread the benefits across the country.
Air Connectivity
  • Played a major role in tourism’s development, with Maldives benefiting from bilateral air service agreements with 29 countries.
  • The country has around 40 direct flight connections with Europe, 55 with the Middle East, and over 200 with Asia per week.
  • Investment in four international and eight domestic airports.
  • World’s largest seaplane fleet with 49 aircraft reaching nearly 1,200 islands, servicing over 60 resorts, transporting about 960,000 passengers with 120,000 flights annually.
  • Still new transport infrastructure development such as the expansion and upgrading of Velana International Airport.
Changing Market Composition
  • Europe represented 73% of Maldives’ inbound tourists in 2008 and 49% in 2018, while the Asia and the Pacific share increased from 21% in 2008 to 42% in 2018.
  • Shift in visitor structure has been mainly driven by China, the largest source market since 2010, representing 19% of the total tourist arrivals in 2018.
  • Maldives has clearly targeted tourists from China through various marketing strategies.
  • Air connectivity with China played an important role with direct flights from seven Chinese cities, including Shanghai and Beijing.
Questions to Consider
  • Are Maldives’ experiences a model of tourism development (especially for other small island countries)?
  • Is the targeting of high-end segments and the diversity in the source markets sustainable?
  • Is it helpful that the revenues obtained from the tourism goods and services tax led to a significant rise in Government’s revenue?

Opportunities for Transforming Coastal and Marine Tourism

Towards Sustainability, Regeneration, and Resilience.

Major Future Global Trends and Implications for Coastal and Marine Tourism

Shifting Demand and Preferences
  • Risks:
    • Travel systems will be restructured.
    • Diminished traveler confidence.
    • Increased cost of long-haul flights.
    • Travel 'shaming' and 'eco-guilt'.
    • Heightened complexity and localization of entry requirements and transit hubs.
    • Virtual platforms replacing business travel.
    • Unprecedented numbers of tourists at domestic tourism sites.
    • Increased demand for tourism infrastructure in remote natural areas with low population density.
    • Increased pressure on natural resources in remote areas.
    • Increasing popularity of virtual reality tourism.
  • Opportunities:
    • Greater domestic and regional travel.
    • Diversified domestic travel options.
    • Distribution of demand to reduce seasonality.
    • Increased tourism from proximate source markets as visitors travel closer to home.
    • Creation of hubs of 'residential tourism'.
    • Artificial reality and virtual tourism platforms.
    • People reconnecting to nature creates momentum for revival of ecosystems.
    • Increased demand for the establishment of marine-protected areas (MPAs) and for their effective management with stakeholder involvement.
    • Increased opportunities for ecotourism concessions in MPAs and in marine privately protected areas.
    • Emergence and growth of voluntourism and adventure tourism can be capitalized on through innovation.
    • Increased investment and livelihood opportunities for remote locations with low population density.
Labour and Population
  • Risks:
    • Decreased post-pandemic labor supply in hospitality services.
    • Increased cost of labor and importance of job satisfaction to attract and retain staff.
    • Increased seasonality due to climate change.
    • Limited availability of skilled workers in new remote locations.
    • Growth of global middle class and acceleration of coastal tourism markets.
    • Continued growth and creation of coastal megacities increases pressure on human and ecosystem health.
    • Population displacement and migration threaten tourism in coastal and marine areas.
  • Opportunities:
    • Upskilling and training local hires to enhance employment satisfaction and job security, leading to greater staff retention.
    • Increased ability to keep tourist receipts in-country and in-community.
    • Increased employment options for remote locations with low population density.
    • Reduced inequalities between expatriate and local wages.
    • Equal access to gainful and rewarding employment for women, minorities, and people with disabilities.
    • Population expansion creates opportunities for new tourism hubs and demand.
    • Younger generations with different value systems and preferences for travel, albeit with lower purchasing power.
Climate Change
  • Risks:
    • Increasing extreme weather, climate extremes, and sea level rise.
    • Unpredictable influxes of sargassum.
    • Increased pressure to reduce emissions limits travel (travel shaming and cost of offsets).
    • Declining health of coral reefs and coastal and marine ecosystems limits tourism appeal.
    • Declining dune ecosystems which protect coastal tourism infrastructure.
    • Potential large-scale unemployment due to the destruction of coastal resort systems.
    • Coastal infrastructure at risk.
    • Cost of adaptation.
    • Decreased efficiency and sustainability as countries revert to siloed national solutions.
  • Opportunities:
    • Increased focus and incentives for net-zero will make long-haul travel more expensive and decrease mass tourism, increasing opportunities for low-volume, high-quality, and high-spending tourism.
    • Investment opportunities in renewable water and energy technologies and circular economy solutions provide cost savings.
    • New demand for low- or zero-emissions forms of transport provides opportunities for innovative finance, improved efficiency, and economic growth.
    • Increased demand for nature-based solutions for coastal protection and resilience to reduce costs and increase benefit.
Loss of Coastal Ecosystems
  • Risks:
    • Accelerated decline in wildlife populations and species diversity.
    • Continued changes in the behavior of marine and coastal wildlife due to coastal development and increased marine activity.
    • Increased marine pollution (e.g., sewage, solid waste, single-use plastics).
  • Opportunities:
    • Payments for conservation management of marine and coastal natural resources.
    • Expanded MPAs with local participation.
    • Compatibility of nature-based marine tourism with other sustainable livelihoods based on marine resources (e.g., fishing and aquaculture).
    • Improved research and awareness of the impacts of tourism on marine and coastal biodiversity.
Changing Impact of Technology
  • Risks:
    • Connection issues in remote destinations contribute to equity issues.
    • Exclusion or disadvantaging of some countries, businesses, or travelers.
    • High investment needs in digital infrastructure may overshadow other investment needs.
    • Increased energy demand adds to shortages and costs.
    • Modernisation and industrialisation contribute to the loss of traditional low-tech crafts, skills, and overharvesting of renewable materials.
  • Opportunities:
    • User-generated content and big data as a major source of information for tourism.
    • Greater data collection can improve decision-making and product development.
    • Improved management of destinations which collects and deploys data for measurement of sustainability across all indicators.
    • Improved understanding of booking and travel patterns, including travel intensity and seasonality.
    • Technology improvements support better waste, water, and energy efficiency.
    • Improved ability for tourists to assess the sustainability of destinations and travel options.
    • Improved deployment of sustainable infrastructure using climate finance.

Outcomes for Sustainable, Regenerative, and Resilient Coastal and Marine Tourism in 2030

Reduce Impacts
  • Carbon-neutral destinations
  • Carbon-neutral travel
  • Energy- and water-efficient infrastructure
  • Minimal single-use plastics
  • Treatment of solid waste and sewerage
  • Integrated coastal zone management
  • Locally owned businesses and tour operators
  • Minimum wage, benefits, and working conditions for all employees
  • High rates of local employment
  • Traditional culture and heritage showcased
  • Behavioural guidelines for all tourist sites and operators
  • Inclusive and participatory destination management plans and strategies
  • Human rights protected
  • Child and female exploitation prevented
Regenerate
  • Renewable energy supports electrification for local community
  • Rainwater and stormwater collection and treatment facilities provide water for local communities
  • Composting facilities enrich local soil
  • Tourists fund and engage restoration projects
  • Marine protected areas (MPAs) and marine privately protected areas (M-PPAs) conserve biodiversity and marine life
  • Coastal ecosystems improve local water quality and biodiversity
  • Marine life repopulated where depleted
  • User fees and visitor payments
  • Long-term career paths enabled through apprenticeship, training, and management programmes
  • Microfinance funds small and medium enterprises, women, and indigenous communities
  • Majority of goods and services sourced locally
  • Tourism revenue funds local education programmes
  • Indigenous-owned and operated businesses flourish
  • Guides and materials presented in local languages
  • Cultural heritage sites restored
  • Local knowledge systems and languages preserved
Build Resilience
  • MPA and M-PPA networks allow for migration of marine life
  • Living coastal infrastructure (mangroves, shellfish, and coral reefs) protects coasts, reduces flooding, and erosion
  • Conservation Trust Funds provide secure funding streams for MPAs
  • Diverse tourism sector
  • Active domestic tourism
  • Balance between local staff and foreign hires at all levels and job types
  • Early warning systems manage climate risk
  • Adaptation and management plans for local heritage sites
  • MPAs and M-PPAs managed by local people

Oceans and Climate

Guiding Questions
  • How is the global economy touching the ocean?
  • What is meant by the triple crisis of the oceans?
  • How is the climate crisis connected with the oceans?
  • What are the characteristics of a sustainable blue economy?
  • What is meant by the RAISE Principles regarding the blue economy?
  • How can finance support a sustainable blue economy?

Land and the Paris Agreement

Guiding Questions
  • Why does land play a key role in climate change?
  • Which role plays land in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the goals of the Paris Agreement?
  • What kind of land cover changes should be realized?