Morrow et al 1998

Overview

  • Study Title: The Political Determinants of International Trade: The Major Powers, 1907-90

  • Authors: James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson, Tressa E. Tabares

  • Published in: The American Political Science Review, September 1998

  • Focus: Examines the effect of international politics on trade flows among major powers.

  • Key Timeframe: 1907-1990

Key Arguments

  • Trade Flows and Political Relations:

    • Trade is greater between states with similar political interests.

    • Trade is more prominent in democratic dyads compared to nondemocratic dyads.

    • Alliances do not always equate to increased trade.

Methodology

  • Data:

    • Analyzed trade flows between major powers from 1907 to 1990 (excluding war years).

    • Utilized a gravity model of trade incorporating political variables.

  • Sample:

    • Major powers include the USA, Great Britain, France, Germany, and others.

Results

  • Key Findings:

    • Joint democracy and common interests significantly increase trade flows.

    • Militarized disputes do not significantly reduce trade.

    • Surprisingly, alliances can reduce trade among member states post-WWII.

Theoretical Implications

  • Realist Perspective: Challenges the notion that political systems are irrelevant to international trade, arguing political relations have substantial impacts on trade flows.

  • Democracy's Effect: Democracies provide an environment that encourages trade due to limited government interventions.

Hypotheses Tested

  1. Hypothesis la: States in conflict have lower trade levels.

  2. Hypothesis lb: Greater common interests lead to increased trade.

  3. Hypothesis 2: Democratic dyads exhibit higher trade than nondemocratic dyads.

  4. Hypothesis 3a: Trade patterns in multipolar systems show no significant trade difference between allies and non-allies.

  5. Hypothesis 3b: In bipolar systems, trade between allies should be greater than that between non-allies.

Estimation Strategy

  • Model Used: Gravity model of trade adjusted for political variables, time series cross-sections.

  • Statistical Techniques: Ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized least squares (GLS) methods were employed to deal with error structures in data.

Conclusion

  • Final Insights:

    • Politics, particularly shared democratic governance and common interests, significantly drives trade.

    • Alliances' role in trade needs careful consideration; their influence varies depending on the geopolitical context (bipolar vs. multipolar).

References

  • The authors reference various international relations theories, earlier studies, and their own empirical measurements throughout the analysis, indicating a thorough literature engagement.