11: Elections and Campaigns

1. Elections and Democracy

• Imp way for ppl to influence gov → elections!
• Campaigns affected by internet and social media
• Election is 2-step process:
    * Primary election – citizens pick which candidate from party will run for specific office in general election
      * Dem against dem, repub against repub…
    * general election – dem vs repub
• Primaries started after progressive era in 1900s early
    * Made to give more power to voters over parties
• Candidate centered elections – individuals decide to run on their own, responsible for campaign from top to bottom
    * Not party-centric election – parties recruit candidates for office, control campaigns

1.1 Turnout

• Why some ppl vote but others don’t
    * Income, education, homeowners, age, partisanship
    * Citizen needs to register in advance, gather info on candidate and policies, how/where to vote
• Structural or institutional factors
    * Voters must be registered to vote before voting (time diff by state)
    * Some states allow mail-in ballots, absentee ballots
    * “Convenience voting” – move away from a single election day to let ppl vote over several weeks-month
      * Early voting → mixed results, can decrease voter turnout

1.2 Turnout in American Elections over Time

• Voter turnout – % of eligible voters who voted
    * High during presidential elections compared to midterms
      * 52-66% pres race, 38-50% midterms
    * High turnout during Trump → polarization, Pres Trump big reasons

1.3 Turnout in 2020 Election

• Biden was worse than Clinton among 3 largest minorities but beat Trump by increasing white voters

2. Congressional Elections

• Dems and Repubs try to win enough seats to get majority in House and Senate
    * Dems and Repubs tied evenly in Senate but VP is Dem → edge over Repub

2.1 Types of Primary Elections

• Open primary – states with no party registration, person chooses which party’s primary to vote in
• Closed primary – with party registration, voter votes only in registered party
    * Independents can’t vote in closed primary
• Top two primary – CA, all candidates from all parties run against one another on 1 ballot, top 2 move to general election
    * Top 2 can be from same party

2.2 Congressional Constituencies

• Each elected rep has 4 constituencies
    * Geographic – actual district that rep is elected from
    * Re-election constituency – ppl who vote for elected official in general election
      * Focus of rep’s work (who they appeal to)
    * Primary – ppl who vote for incumbent in primary election
      * Voters make sure incumbent wins primary by showing up for low-turnout
    * Center of circle: personal constituency – personal acquaintances
      * Friends, fam, local businesses, political leaders
• Members of congress focused on keeping their goal
    * All actions affected by that goal
    * Having public office = wealth, power
    * After retiring, can be lobbyist
• 435 districts, 50 states
    * System set up so that all reps must regularly fly back to district and campaign
• House election every 2 yrs → constantly campaigning for re-election
    * Senate has more breathing room

2.3 Cost of Campaigns

• Running for public office costs a lot
    * Call supporters for donations, meet with interest groups to ask for contributions, fundraisers
    * Rich ppl run for office using own money
    * Spending lots of money != winning election
• Candidates raise money from:
    * Individual donations – limits on how much can be donated in 2-yr cycle, all publicly reported
    * Interest groups – donate directly to campaign or spend money directly on campaigns
      * “Dark money” – unregulated, unknown
      * Restrictions: group(s) spending money can’t direct appeal to vote for or against candidate, group can’t coordinate with campaign or candidate

2.4 Incumbency Advantage

• 90% of incumbents return to office for re-election
• reasons:
    * Had to be good candidate to be elected in first place
    * Incumbents pass legislation that constituents want to be re-elected
      * Send newsletters to everyone in district abt their actions
    * Higher name recognition → voters who don’t know choose familiar names
• Advantages:
    * Incumbents scare of high-quality challenger
• No incumbents running for office – “open seats”
    * Highly sought after
• Not all incumbents run when they know they’ll lose

2.6 Midterm Elections

• Midterm loss – party of pres loses seats in midterm elections
    * Midterm elections – Congressional elections that happen in between pres elections
    * Low turnout
    * Party in power at disadvantage bc they’re in power

3. Presidential Elections

3.1 primaries and caucuses

• Campaign for presidency rly stars 2 yrs before general election
• Candidates start campaigning in states that vote early in primary and caucus
    * Iowa, New Hampshire
    * Caucus serves same purpose as primary – to allocate delegates to nat convention
      * Official nomination of candidates
• Caucus:
    * Voters gather at house or school gym, supporters give speeches to get neighbors to support candidate
    * Becoming less pop, esp bc of covid
• National convention
    * During summer months of an election yr
    * Each party has own convention where delegates cast votes for candidates they want
• Winning early contests != will be the nominee
    * Candidates who don’t do well in early elections drop out bc no funds

3.2 The Conventions

• National convention – where delegates chosen for candidates of each party officially nominate party pres candidate
    * End of primary, start of general election
• Brokered convention – when on candidate doesn’t eventer with enough delegates
• After first roll call where delegates vote for pledged candidate, reps from other campaigns try to get more delegates
    * Another vote for final nominee

3.3 Electoral College: The Basics

• Electoral College – /4yrs, electors meet to choose pres
    * Each state has same vote as they have in US reps and senators
      * DC has 3 bc of 23 Amendment – gets same amt of votes as smallest state
    * Plurality election in each state– no majority, just whoever gets the most
• Needs majority of 270/538 votes in Electoral College to be pres
    * No majority → election goes to House of Rep where each state gets 1 vote
      * Only chooses from top 3
      * Goes on until majority (26) reached
    * Contingent election – process where no majority in Electoral College → majority in House of Rep in 4 days or if not → VP becomes president
      * Heavily in favor of smaller states
• Pres election = 51 separate elections
    * All states except two (Nebraska, Maine) allocate votes for Electoral College to plurality winner of vote in their state
    * Whoever gets most votes in a state gets state’s Electoral College votes
      * popular vote can lose in Electoral College
• Electors picked by political parties and campaigns
    * Not required to vote for candidate who won in their state
    * Faithless elector – someone who votes for a candidate other than the candidate who won their state vote (doesn’t usually affect election)
• Chiafalo v. Washington – S Court ruled that states can pass laws that force electors to vote for pop vote winner in state

3.4 Term Limits

• Congress members have no term limits (without amendments to Constitution)
• Pres can only serve 2 terms by 22 amendment

3.5 Campaign Strategy

• Pres campaigns usually restrict themselves to just a few states
    * Dems always win NY and CA
    * Repubs in south – Texas, Alabama
• Toss-up states – could go either party
    * Main focus of campaign groups
    * Florida, Ohio, NMex, Colorado…
    * Usually 8-10 active campaigning states
• Means pres election rly only takes place in a handful of states → critics dislike
    * Also cuts down on costs tho

4. Other Types of Elections in the US

4.1 Initiatives and Referendums

• Abt half of states follow direct democracy – voters decide directly on public policy thru initiatives or referendums
    * Initiatives – public petitions to put on ballot
    * Referendums – policy proposals that state legislature puts on ballot
• Direct dem → way that most states set up term limits on state legislators
    * To give ppl method of passing laws on their own when state won’t
    * Initiatives enter ballot thru petitions, needs specific no of signatures
    * Cons: majority puts laws against minorities

4.2 Recall Elections

• Recall elections – citizens can remove elected official from office before end of official term they were og for
    * Ex. CA, Gray Davis recalled bc unpopular
    * Voters petition

4.3 Judicial Elections

• State court judicial elections: partisan, non-partisan, retention
    * Retention – judge apted by governor → voters decide if judge should stay in office