Pietruska Study Notes on Weather Forecasts and the US Weather Bureau

Chapter Overview

  • Title: Weather Prophecies

  • Author: Jamie L. Pietruska

  • Published: Online: May 24, 2018 | Print: December 8, 2017

  • Scope: Examines conflicts over long-range weather forecasting from the 1890s to the 1910s, focusing on the US Weather Bureau's attempts to suppress commercial weather prophets.

  • Key Figures: Willis L. Moore (chief of the Weather Bureau from 1895-1913) and W. T. Foster (private forecaster).

  • Keywords: Long-range weather forecasting, meteorology, weather prophets, authority, fraud, weekly forecasts.

  • Subject Area: History of the Americas.

Introduction to the Weather Bureau's Historical Context

  • Context: The US Weather Bureau aimed to establish itself as a credible authority on weather forecasting against the backdrop of growing popularity of private forecasters (weather prophets).

    • The Weather Bureau defined accurate short-term forecasting but initially rejected long-range predictions as unscientific.

  • Commercial Weather Prophets: Provided long-range forecasts (monthly, seasonal, yearly), posing an epistemic threat to the Bureau's credibility.

The Role of Willis L. Moore

  • Moore's Campaign Against Weather Prophets:

    • War on the Weather Prophets: Aimed to distance scientific meteorology from prophecy.

    • Teaching Trust: Moore sought to teach the public about the limitations and certainties of weather forecasting.

    • Rivalry with W. T. Foster: Moore viewed Foster as a significant rival in the growing market for weather predictions.

  • Acceptance of Uncertainty: Over time, the Bureau shifted from outright rejection of long-range forecasting to a grudging acceptance of uncertainty as part of weather prediction.

Historical Development of Weather Forecasting

  • Increased Demand for Long-Range Forecasts:

    • Weather Bureau struggled to compete as the public demanded long-range predictions.

  • Methods Used by Private Forecasters: Varied techniques such as cycles, planetary motion, and folklore.

Commercial Forecasting and its Impact

  • Cultural and Economic Significance: Enthusiasm for long-range forecasts grew, particularly in agricultural sectors where predictive abilities held economic value.

  • Crisis Events: Notably, the blizzard of March 1888 exposed shortcomings in official forecasting and boosted the credibility of private forecasters like Horace Johnson.

Epistemic Confrontation

  • Theoretical Underpinnings: The Weather Bureau initially dismissed commercial forecasting as unscience and often equated it with superstition and fraud.

  • Public Trust Dynamics: Trust wavered between government forecasts and those of weather prophets, complicating the Bureau's pursuits for legitimacy.