lecture 13

Overview of Electoral Rules

• Definition of electoral rules:

  • Set of rules that govern how voting occurs, what candidates can run, and the representation of votes in elected bodies.

• Discussion on different types of Proportional Representation (PR) systems: Closed-list PR and Open-list PR.

Closed-List Proportional Representation (PR)

• Definition:

  • A voting system where voters cast their votes for a party rather than individual candidates.

  • Parties prepare lists of candidates, and voters vote for the party, not the individuals.

• Example:

  • In South Africa, the ballot features numerous candidates (e.g., 400 candidates) from various parties.

  • Voters primarily recognize the leading candidate of a party (e.g., African National Congress) but not all individuals on the list.

• Candidate Selection:

  • Candidates are chosen by the party organization, based on their ranking on the list (e.g., Candidate 1 has higher chances of winning than Candidate 200).

  • Voters have no influence over which specific candidates from the party list are elected.

Open-List Proportional Representation (PR)

• Definition:

  • Voters can cast their votes for individual candidates within party lists, impacting which candidates from that party receive seats.

• Example of Voting Process:

  • In a hypothetical election:

  • Four parties and four available seats with multiple candidates.

  • Votes determine how many seats each party receives.

  • Individual votes for candidates influence who is prioritized within the party.

• Advantages:

  • Provides voters with the flexibility to select specific candidates, allowing for ideological or district-specific preferences.

• Challenges:

  • Complexity in making choices; individuals may find themselves voting for lesser-known candidates who may not win (e.g., Candidate Antonio with 8 votes).

• Case Study:

  • Brazilian election where a professional clown received more votes than other candidates but lost due to party weaknesses.

  • This demonstrates the challenges of individual influence in party systems.

Implications of Electoral Systems

• Effects on Political Parties:

  • Duverger's Law:

  • Empirical observation that single-member district systems tend to favor two-party systems, while PR systems typically facilitate multiple parties.

• Variants of Electoral Systems:

  • Mixed systems combine elements of PR with single-member districts.

  • Ranked-choice voting and transferable vote systems also exist and help address some issues in representation.

• Importance of Electoral Systems:

  • Key in determining the formation of governments.

  • Influences legislative processes and governmental accountability.

Psychological Component of Voting

• Strategic vs. Sincere Voting:

  • Sincere voting:

  • Voting for the preferred candidate without concern for likelihood of winning.

  • Strategic voting:

  • Choosing a candidate with a better chance of winning, often to prevent undesired outcomes.

• Observed Behavior:

  • In elections, voters often abandon small parties due to concerns of wasted votes.

Mechanical and Psychological Effects

• Mechanical Effect:

  • High disproportionality exists in single-member districts leading to a waste of votes.

  • More proportional results in PR systems help small parties gain representation.

• Psychological Effect:

  • Voters abandon small parties knowing they are unlikely to win.

  • Candidates and donors are less likely to support parties they think have no chance of winning.

Consequences of Electoral Choices

• Representation Effects:

  • Systems with multiple parties could lead to increased representation for diverse opinions; lack of representation can lead to discontent and protests/violence.

• Polarization Effects:

  • Polarization indicates the ideological distance between parties; two-party systems may lead to convergence towards the middle, while PR systems allow for diverse perspectives but potential for extremism.

• The Paradox of Choice:

  • Too many candidates may overwhelm voters, leading to lower turnout or uninformed choices.

  • Research indicates fewer candidates may aid selection and increase participation.

Summary of Key Results

• Effective Number of Parties Calculation:

  • Formula representation:

  • $n = \frac{1}{\sum<em>{i=1}^{N} p</em>i^2}$ where $n$ is the effective number of parties and $p_i$ is the proportion of votes/seats.

• PR systems generally yield larger numbers of parties compared to single-member district systems, contributing to a greater diversity of representation in governance.

Closing Remarks

• Notable transitions within electoral systems, such as in New Zealand, demonstrate the observable impact of PR on increasing the number of political parties.

• Discussions on how changing electoral rules can shift political landscapes and party dynamics will continue to evolve.