explaining voter behaviour: individuals

key theories:

rational choice:
- assumes voters will make a rational/logical judgement based on what is in their own best interests
- assumes they will be fully informed about all the options and carry out a cost benefit analysis before making their choice
issue voting:
- voters place one issue above all others n cast their vote based on that issue
- they judge a party/candidate by their position on that issue and choose the one that most closely resembles their own opinion
economic/valence issues:
- a valence issues is where voters make a judgement based on performance and who is best able to deliver a desired outcome, usually centred on management of the economy

social vs individual voting behaviour:

social	individual
people are influenced by their shared membership of a particular group	people decide how to cast their vote based on their individual preferences
people are likely to cast their vote in solidarity with other members of their social group	people are likely to vote on the basis of what is best for them, rather than for others
social voting behaviour allows political parties to tailor policies towards key groups	individual voting is harder for political parties to aggregate public ops into workable policy initiatives

factors that affect individual voting:

2024 gen election: story so far…

	conservative (in govt)	labour (official opposition)	lib dems
policies	extra nhs funding, 50mil + gp appts/year 20k more police tougher sentencing 4 criminals points-based immigration system ‘stop the boats’ reaching net 0 by 2050	gb energy ‘smash criminal gangs’ cut £28bil green pledge	proportional representation
key issues	rwanda bill, ruled unlawful by supreme court etc economic recession 40+ tory mps choosing to stand down	anti-semitism? what do they stand for other than just…not being conservatives?	coming back after failed ‘bollocks to brexit’ campaign
performance in office	only 1/5 sunak pledges have been accomplished » halving inflation, which wasn’t even because of him scandals: chris pincher, peter bone, etc inflation “trussonomics”	+3 net gain over tories in by-elections since 2019 (= what they did between 1992-7, before labour landslide)	by-election victories » +2 net gain over tories ed davey’s involvement in post office scandal
leadership	3pms in 5 years 5 chancellors in 5 years	stable » starmer n reeves for full term
image	partygate legacy in-fighting	‘flipflopping’ on policy - not seen as decisive more united than the tories corbyn’s legacy
tactical voting		stopthetories.vote	stopthetories.vote

spatial leadership:

def: a style of leadership where the PM relies on his/her own inner circle of advisers, rather than their cabinet

voters now make their choice based on party leadership and who would be best-placed to be PM
the role of the party leader is to:
- inspire the party activists
- appear prime ministerial
- have a positive media presence
- appear strong in leading the party and, if elected, the nation
media also tends to focus on character n image of party leader over everything else » easier to report on a single person rather than range of figures

public perception of leaders:

date	successful party leader	unsuccessful party leader
1964	harold wilson -presented as man of the people, preferred tinned salmon to expensive smoked salmon	former peer n aristocrat sir alec douglas home
1983	margaret thatcher -appeared strong n nationalistic after leading the uk to victory in the falklands	scruffy, ‘donkey jacket’ - wearing michael foot - the jacket criticism coming after wearing an untailored work jacket when laying a wreath on remembrance sunday
1992	john major - calm, reassuring n who seemed polite n gentlemanly	the ‘welsh windbag’ neil kinnock
1997	tony blair - young, charismatic n media savvy	the ‘weak n boring’ john major
2010	david cameron - smartly presented, reassuring and young	the ‘dour, taciturn and dithering’ gordon brown
2015	david cameron - capable after 5 yrs in role	ed “i stabbed my brother in the back miliband”, poor media presence n the leadership election he never escaped from where he defeated his brother
2017	theresa may - austere, arrogant. a poor campaign and lost seats - but still defeated…	jeremy corbyn - a man of ideologies who made gain but suffered from party divisions and concerns of his competence
2019	boris johnson - the political equivalent of marmite. fought a campaign but didn’t engage with critics	jeremy corbyn - now a man embroiled in anti-semitism concerns, and a dubious attitude towards the big issue brexit

are party leaders the main reason for a party’s electoral fortunes?

yes	no
a strong leader will inspire confidence in floating voters	people vote for their local mp, not for the prime minister
a strong performance will motivate the core voters and enthuse activists	other factors eg major events that have affected public opinion are far more important
a leader can maintain party discipline to ensure a unified party during an election campaign	core supporters will remain loyal despite the leadership

well