evidence of media influence @elections

1979:

“crisis - what crisis?”

  • yes, it influenced the result:

    • callaghan never said this, but the headline suggested he was out of touch and swung opinion against him

  • no, it didn’t influence the result:

    • opinion polls showed callaghan as labour’s strongest asset n was generally ahead of thatcher throughout the campaign

1992:

“we’re alright we’re alright” - sheffield rally

  • yes it influenced the results:

    • tv pictures showing neil kinnock as a triumphalist a week b4 the election, alienated some voters and caused some labour voters to be more apathetic

  • no, did not:

    • happened week before election ∴ unlikely to have properly impacted

1997:

‘The Sun backs Blair’

  • yes it influenced the result:

    • tony blair met with rupert murdoch (n other members of the press), leading the sun to declare its support for labour, leading to switching of voter allegiance

  • no:

    • press reacting to mood of time, reflecting polls swinging towards labour

2010:

tv leader’s debate: cleggmania, sun changes tack

  • yes:

    • the performance of nick clegg in the tv debates raised his profile at the expense of david cam’s resulting in a hung parliament

  • no:

    • the libdems only increased their share of the vote by 1% and actually lost seats in the election

2015:

“hell yes, i’m tough enough!” - ed miliband

  • yes:

    • caused issues for everyone apart from nic sturg. ed miliband falling from the stage n the over-excited “hell yes, i’m tough enough” made him appear less prime ministerial than david cameron

  • no:

    • opinion polls suggest the debate made no real difference to voting intentions, merely confirming existing impressions of the leaders

2017:

may refuses to take part in leaders’ debates

  • yes:

    • theresa may’s refusal to participate became a means of attacking her and Labour improved in credibility after a better than expected performance by corbyn

  • no:

    • may went on to win more votes than cameron had in 2010/15

    • corbyn still lost n third party performers who did well saw no improvement in their vote shares

2019:

targeted facebook advertising

  • yes:

    • start of dec 2019: facebook ad library showed the tories had 2.5k live paid-for ads, while labour only had 250; tories ended up w/ huge victory over Labour

  • no:

    • libdems had 3k paid ads on fb, yet lost seats