PSCI 3333 Notes: 3-25-26

Class Overview

  • Instructor is engaging with students ahead of an upcoming exam on Wednesday.

  • TA Maruna will cover misinformation on that day.

  • Maruna has received a job offer at the University of San Diego.

  • Encouragement for students to be particularly respectful towards Maruna, drawing on personal experience from when the instructor was a TA.

  • Overview assignments and book reviews will be managed by Maruna, and students are encouraged to ask questions in the class.

Topic of Discussion: Change in Political Beliefs

  • This week’s focus is on whether people change their political beliefs.

  • The discussion is contextualized within previous classes discussing political beliefs and measurement.

  • Reference to recent polling data on the Save America Act which is supported by a majority.

  • The Save America Act includes provisions such as:

    • Requiring voter ID

    • Restricting mail-in ballots

    • It parallels a previous Democratic effort to ban voter ID policies.

  • Poll results suggest a high level of support (59% - 60%) for the act, though expert opinion suggests many do not understand the details of the bill.

    • There's concern about surface-level support rather than informed support.

Exploring Public Opinion

  • Importance of understanding whether changes in political views are genuine.

  • Polling has shown fluctuations in opinions on various political issues.

  • Discussion includes how people report changes in views but stresses the importance of looking beyond mere self-reporting.

Sociological Research References

  • Converse's research indicates instability in survey responses, suggesting that people frequently change their minds on surveys.

  • Acknowledgment that while some issues may see a shift towards more liberal or conservative stances, these are often superficial (i.e. “cheap talk”).

Evidence of Cultural Change

  • Discussion of significant societal changes, referencing:

    • Same-sex marriage acceptance, which has increased over time.

    • The decline of support for laws against interracial marriage, which was previously as high as 40% in 1972, showing a dramatic cultural shift.

  • The narrative illustrates difficulty in measuring actual changes due to generational turnover versus true belief changes.

Theories of Belief Change

  • Four potential theories of how people change their minds:

    1. Hasty opinion formation (Converse’s stance).

    2. Cohort Replacement: Older generations not changing beliefs die off, replaced by younger generations (e.g., attitudes towards interracial marriage drastically shifting).

    3. People genuinely have beliefs that evolve due to new information.

    4. Peripheral beliefs aligning with core beliefs in a change-resistant network of ideas.

Understanding Change

  • Two broad tendencies:

    1. Active Updating: Individuals change their opinions in response to new contexts (however, evidence points to stability in views for people over 30).

    2. Settled Dispositions: Once individuals solidify an opinion, they are less likely to change.

Researchers’ Methodology

  • Authors utilize panel data to analyze opinions longitudinally, assessing changes over multiple instances instead of single data points.

  • Researchers argue that change pre-30 years of age shows active updating, while post-30 sees a stabilization of opinions.

Separation of Effects in Political Opinion Research

  • Differentiate between cohort effects (how a generation is shaped) and age effects (how individuals change as they grow older).

  • Cohort effects indicate a group experience that influences an entire generation's views.

  • Age effects demonstrate how an individual's beliefs may shift as they age, but these can be clouded by internal and external events affecting societal views.

Challenges in Political Science Research

  • Crucial to accurately separate cohort, age, and period effects in data analysis.

  • Detailed explanation of collinearity and its complications in social science research where age and generation traits are intertwined.

Case Study Example

  • Instructor uses the COVID pandemic as a historical moment influencing the current cohort's political beliefs.

  • Personal reflections on how current events (e.g., 9/11, financial crisis) shape generational attitudes.

Discussion of Political Reasoning

  • Political reasoning heavily influenced by confirmation bias and motivated reasoning.

  • Analysis of reasoning stages: acquisition of new information, evaluation of that information, and revision of prior beliefs.

    • Example provided about the impact of misinformation on political beliefs.

  • Mention of a study analyzing responses based on prior political positions to demonstrate bias in evaluating evidence (minimum wage study).

Conclusion

  • Emphasis on implications of biased reasoning leading to polarized opinions and how beliefs can appear stable but change due to societal and cohort influences.

  • Instructor's call to critically engage with information and not rely solely on politically motivated research validity.