Experimentation and Hypothesis

Experiments as a Growth Tool

• Experiments help avoid biases: overestimating probability, potential, and inflating success.
• Experiments provide clarity by reducing noise from seasonality, bugs, acquisition changes, product changes, and competitive movements.
• Experiments help uncover the truth about product growth and user decisions.

Defining Well-Structured Hypotheses

• Clear hypotheses lead to clear learnings.
• Clear hypotheses:
  • Force structured thinking.
  • Provide a point of comparison.
  • Inform valid experiment design.
• Without clear hypotheses, the growth system fails because we can't extract proper learnings.

Mistakes to Avoid

• Don't start with the hypothesis; define the core problem first.
• A hypothesis is a statement of belief, not a prediction.
• A hypothesis isn't the experiment itself.

Experiment Map

• Focus on the top half of the experiment map (creating and structuring hypotheses).