Inflation and Unemployment Notes
Inflation and Unemployment
Definition of Inflation
- Inflation is defined as a period of generally rising prices, measuring the average price change of goods/services over time.
- It's a macroeconomic variable reflecting overall price level movement, not uniform price changes.
- Inflation rate is the percentage change in price level; positive rate means rising prices, negative means falling prices.
Sectoral Shift Theories of Inflation
- Attributes inflation to built-in economic factors and varying sectoral changes.
- Inflation results from reactions in one sector to events in another.
- Expanding industries may increase wages with productivity, keeping prices stable in those sectors.
- Trigger-off effect: low-productivity sectors bargain for wage increases, raising average wages above productivity gains, leading to inflation.
Types of Inflation
- Creeping Inflation: Gradual price increase during economic expansion; some level is considered necessary for growth.
- Galloping Inflation (Hyperinflation): Rapid inflation, often post-war, making money worthless quickly due to excessive money printing.
- Suppressed Inflation: Inflationary pressures exist, but prices are controlled by governmental laws.
- Spiral Inflation: Measures to correct inflation lead to further price increases.
Causes of Inflation
- Inflation isn't solely about money supply; it is also about output; money supply increase with equal output increase doesn't cause inflation.
- Demand Pull Inflation: Demand exceeds supply at existing prices, creating shortages and diminishing returns.
- Inflation occurs when price increases outpace output increases.
- At full employment, supply becomes inflexible, and increased demand only raises price levels.
- Cost Push Inflation: Rising production costs (wages, raw materials) decrease supply.
- Wage increases without productivity improvements lead to rising prices.
- Higher raw material costs severely affect supply.
Effects of Inflation
- Reduces the real value of money, hurting fixed income groups (pensioners).
- Can lead to a breakdown of the money economy and reversion to barter or a new currency.
- Redistributes wealth among asset owners; assets with fixed prices lose value.
- Debtors benefit by repaying with cheaper currency, while creditors are hurt.
- If domestic prices rise faster than trading partners, exports fall, imports rise, and trade terms worsen.
- International inflation can cause global financial problems.
- Inflation can lead to higher tax brackets, increasing government revenue.
- Rising profits during inflation can encourage increased production and employment.
Controlling Inflation
- Price Control: Setting prices administratively, requiring policing, and is difficult with supply shortages; targets demand-pull inflation.
- Fiscal Policy:
- Reduce government expenditure and run surplus budgets to decrease aggregate demand.
- Increase taxes on money income to reduce spending.