Inflation and Unemployment Notes

Inflation and Unemployment

Definition of Inflation

  • Inflation is defined as a period of generally rising prices, measuring the average price change of goods/services over time.
  • It's a macroeconomic variable reflecting overall price level movement, not uniform price changes.
  • Inflation rate is the percentage change in price level; positive rate means rising prices, negative means falling prices.

Sectoral Shift Theories of Inflation

  • Attributes inflation to built-in economic factors and varying sectoral changes.
  • Inflation results from reactions in one sector to events in another.
  • Expanding industries may increase wages with productivity, keeping prices stable in those sectors.
  • Trigger-off effect: low-productivity sectors bargain for wage increases, raising average wages above productivity gains, leading to inflation.

Types of Inflation

  • Creeping Inflation: Gradual price increase during economic expansion; some level is considered necessary for growth.
  • Galloping Inflation (Hyperinflation): Rapid inflation, often post-war, making money worthless quickly due to excessive money printing.
  • Suppressed Inflation: Inflationary pressures exist, but prices are controlled by governmental laws.
  • Spiral Inflation: Measures to correct inflation lead to further price increases.

Causes of Inflation

  • Inflation isn't solely about money supply; it is also about output; money supply increase with equal output increase doesn't cause inflation.
  • Demand Pull Inflation: Demand exceeds supply at existing prices, creating shortages and diminishing returns.
    • Inflation occurs when price increases outpace output increases.
    • At full employment, supply becomes inflexible, and increased demand only raises price levels.
  • Cost Push Inflation: Rising production costs (wages, raw materials) decrease supply.
    • Wage increases without productivity improvements lead to rising prices.
    • Higher raw material costs severely affect supply.

Effects of Inflation

  • Reduces the real value of money, hurting fixed income groups (pensioners).
  • Can lead to a breakdown of the money economy and reversion to barter or a new currency.
  • Redistributes wealth among asset owners; assets with fixed prices lose value.
  • Debtors benefit by repaying with cheaper currency, while creditors are hurt.
  • If domestic prices rise faster than trading partners, exports fall, imports rise, and trade terms worsen.
  • International inflation can cause global financial problems.
  • Inflation can lead to higher tax brackets, increasing government revenue.
  • Rising profits during inflation can encourage increased production and employment.

Controlling Inflation

  • Price Control: Setting prices administratively, requiring policing, and is difficult with supply shortages; targets demand-pull inflation.
  • Fiscal Policy:
    • Reduce government expenditure and run surplus budgets to decrease aggregate demand.
    • Increase taxes on money income to reduce spending.