4.3 Reforge - Baselines + Projecting Out
- The goal is to determine how each identified input is performing currently.
- Requires reviewing historical data for both the product and user acquisition.
- Involves inputting starting values, such as weekly active users (e.g., 20,000).
- Insert total number of existing projects.
- Historical ratio of new projects generated per active user.
- Insert baseline data for inputs within growth loops and channels (e.g., exposure rate, conversion rates).
- Insert baseline averages by analyzing historical data.
- Fill in retention cohorts based on historical data; project and estimate when full data isn't available.
- Update the model with new data over time to improve accuracy.
Projecting the Model
- Project the model for approximately twelve months to forecast future performance.
- Based on current baselines, determine where the model will be in twelve months.
- Monitor new activated users from loops, feeding into total registrations and activations.
- Apply retention cohort percentages to calculate retained users over time.
- Reason: Conditions change and projecting further is not helpful.
Completed Steps
- Identify key output.
- Break down the output into individual inputs within a spreadsheet.
- Use historical data to create baselines and find averages for each input.
- Project based on baselines to forecast numbers in twelve months.