Origins and Development of the Cold War (1945-1991)

The Origins of the Cold War: Historiography and Roots ($1945$-$1953$)

• Definition of the Cold War: The term was first utilized in $1947$ to describe the state of hostility between the USSR and the USA. It was a conflict characterized by propaganda, deterrence, and proxy wars (indirect involvement by supporting allies) rather than direct military engagement between the superpowers.

• Historiographical Perspectives:

  • Orthodox or Post-glasnost Historians: Attribute blame to the USSR. They argue Joseph Stalin planned for a worldwide communist takeover, exemplified by the creation of the "Iron Curtain" in Eastern Europe.

  • Revisionist Historians: Attribute blame to the USA. They argue Soviet actions were defensive. They claim the USA acted as a hypocrite, wanting to control its own sphere of influence while denying the USSR the same right.

  • Post-Revisionist Historians: Believe neither superpower is solely to blame; the Cold War resulted from misunderstanding, guesswork, and mutual suspicion.

• Roots of Soviet Suspicion:

  • The USSR had suffered historical invasions during $WWI$, $WWII$, and the Russian Civil War. Stalin believed "friendly countries" on Soviet borders were an essential defense against future invasion.

  • Stalin distrusted the West due to the perceived policy of appeasement toward Hitler in the $1930s$, believing the West intended for Hitler to destroy the USSR.

• Change in US Policy: The USA pivoted from isolationism to a policy of promoting democracy and stopping the rise of dictators. This was driven by the need to protect global trade and capitalism, which they believed the spread of communism threatened.

The Wartime Conferences ($1943$-$1945$)

• Teheran Conference (November $1943$):

  • Held from $28$ November to $1$ December $1943$. This was the first meeting of the "Big Three": Stalin, Churchill, and Roosevelt.

  • Agreement on Poland: Poland would receive land from Germany to its west (east of the river Oder and Neisse) while ceding eastern territory to the Soviet Union (up to the Curzon line).

• Yalta Conference (February $1945$):

  • Key figures and Motivations:

    • Franklin D. Roosevelt (USA): Very ill (died $2$ months later). He trusted Stalin and was keen on introducing democracy to Eastern Europe, wanting to maintain good US-USSR relations.

    • Winston Churchill (UK): Concerned about the future of Poland; he joined $WWII$ specifically to protect Polish independence and did not trust Stalin's communist intentions.

    • Joseph Stalin (USSR): Obsessed with security. He wanted a "buffer zone" of communist states in Eastern Europe and sought to retain territory gained in the Nazi-Soviet Pact.

  • Agreements:

    • Berlin and Germany were to be divided into $4$ occupation zones (UK, USA, USSR, France).

    • A "Declaration on Liberated Europe" promised free elections and democratic governments.

    • Stalin agreed to democratic, free elections in Poland.

    • The USSR agreed to enter the war against Japan in exchange for island territories (e.g., Hokkaido).

    • Establishing the United Nations: Stalin convinced the others that the five permanent Security Council members should have veto power.

  • Interpretive Weakness: Roosevelt viewed democracy as freedom of speech and competitive elections; Stalin viewed it as the Communist Party representing the people without opposition.

• Potsdam Conference (July $1945$):

  • Leaders: Harry Truman (USA), Joseph Stalin (USSR), and Clement Attlee (UK).

  • Tensions: Truman was more aggressive and anti-communist than Roosevelt. He informed Stalin about the atomic bomb to establish dominance. The US estimated it would take the USSR $20$ years to develop their own.

  • Agreements and Disagreements:

    • The Nazi Party was banned; war criminals were to be tried.

    • Reparations: Each power would take reparations from their own zone. Stalin demanded $20$ billion, but Truman and Attlee refused, fearing a repeat of the Treaty of Versailles' economic consequences.

    • Stalin refused clear responses regarding the non-democratic setup of the Polish government, which violated Yalta.

The Iron Curtain and Salami Tactics

• The Iron Curtain Speech: Delivered by Winston Churchill on $5$ March $1946$. Verbatim: "An iron curtain has descended across the Continent." He called for an Anglo-American alliance against the "communist menace."

• Soviet Justification: Soviet leaders felt entitled to shape Europe after contributing to $80\%$ of German losses ($10\,000\,000$ Germans). Total Soviet deaths in $WWII$ reached $25\,000\,000$ ($15\,000\,000$ soldiers/civilians plus deaths from famine/disease).

• Salami Tactics: The method of gaining incremental control by placing communists in key ministries (like the Interior/Police) and then eliminating opposition through violence, rigged elections, and intimidation.

• Phases of Eastern Bloc Consolidation:

  • Romania/Bulgaria: Communist-dominated coalitions by late $1944$. Vyshinsky ordered the Romanian King to appoint a Stalin-selected PM in Feb $1945$. Monarchy was abolished in Bulgaria ($1946$) and Romania ($1947$).

  • Poland: Stalin's priority. Rigged elections in Jan $1947$. In $1947$, $16$ non-communist leaders were invited to Moscow and arrested.

  • Hungary: Non-communists won free elections in Nov $1945$ ($Zoltan\,Tildy$). Communists used the secret police ($AVO$) to rig the Aug $1947$ election. By Nov $1947$, non-communist parties were banned.

  • Czechoslovakia: A $1946$ election saw communists get $38\%$ of the vote ($Gottwald$ as PM). Fearing a loss in $1948$, they used the secret police to arrest opponents ($Benes$). Non-communist minister $Jan\,Masaryk$ was found dead (suspected suicide/murder).

The Truman Doctrine and Marshall Plan ($1947$)

• The Long Telegram ($1946$): George Kennan argued the USSR was "hell-bent" on destroying capitalism. He noted: "They [Europeans] are seeking guidance rather than responsibilities. We should be better able than [the] Russians to give them this. And unless we do, [the] Russians certainly will."

• The Truman Doctrine ($12\,March\,1947$): A policy of containment. Truman stated: "I believe that it must be the policy of the United States to help free people to maintain their institutions and their integrity against aggressive movements that seek to impose upon the totalitarian regimes." US support included:

  • $400\,million$ for Greece (Greek Civil War, March $1946$ - October $1949$).

  • $100\,million$ for Turkey (resisting Soviet demands for Black Sea Straits).

• The Marshall Plan ($June\,1947$): Economic aid to prevent people from turning to communism. $15\,billion$ total fund. It provided $13\,billion$ over $4$ years.

  • Recipients: UK ($3.297\,billion$), France ($2.296\,billion$), West Germany ($1.448\,billion$), Austria ($468\,million$).

  • Soviet Reaction: Stalin called it "Dollar Imperialism" and forced Eastern states to reject it.

• Cominform ($1947$): Established $5$ October $1947$ to coordinate European communist parties. Marshal Tito (Yugoslavia) was expelled in $1948$ for resisting Stalin's control.

• Comecon ($January\,1949$): The Council for Mutual Economic Aid. Aimed at trade coordination but favored the USSR; featured no cash injection compared to the Marshall Plan.

The Berlin Blockade and Airlift ($1948$-$1949$)

• Causes: Formation of Bizonia ($1\,January\,1947$) and Trizonia ($21\,June\,1948$). The introduction of the Deutsche Mark ($23\,June\,1948$) to replace the Reichsmark.

• The Blockade ($24\,June\,1948$): Stalin cut off road, rail, and canal links to West Berlin to starve $2,000,000$ people into submission.

• Operation Vittles (The Airlift):

  • Lasted $318$ days ($26\,June\,1948$ to $12\,May\,1949$).

  • $275,000$ flights; $1.5\,million$ tons of supplies. Peak flow reached $13,000$ tons in a single day (April $1949$).

  • $79$ British and American pilots died due to weather.

• Outcomes: Stalin called off the blockade. Germany split into the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG, May $1949$) and the German Democratic Republic (GDR, October $1949$).

• NATO ($4\,April\,1949$): A collective defense military alliance. West Germany joined in $1955$, prompting the USSR to form the Warsaw Pact ($1955$).

Cold War in Asia: China and Korea

• China Becoming Communist ($1949$): Mao Zedong proclaimed the People's Republic of China (PRC) on $1\,October\,1949$. Truman refused recognition: "As long as I am President… that cut throat organization will never be recognised by us." US support remained with Chiang Kai-shek in Taiwan.

  • Sino-Soviet Treaty ($15\,February\,1950$): Mutual military commitment and a $300\,million$ loan to China.

• The Korean War ($1950$-$1953$): First major proxy war. North (Kim Il Sung) vs. South (Syngman Rhee).

  • Key Events: North invaded $25\,June\,1950$ with $75,000$ troops. The UN Security Council voted $9$-$0$ to intervene (USSR was boycotting). General MacArthur led the UN force ($90\%$ US personnel).

  • Course of War: Inchon landing ($15\,September\,1950$). Chinese People's Volunteer Army ($200,000$ troops) entered after UN approached the Yalu River. MacArthur was dismissed by Truman in April $1951$.

  • Armistice ($27\,July\,1953$): Permanent division at the $38^{th}$ Parallel. Resulted in $1$ in $10$ Koreans dying and the formation of SEATO ($1954$).

• NSC-68 ($1950$): A top-secret report calling for a massive military buildup. US defense spending increased from $5\%$ to $14.2\%$ of GDP during the Korean War ($1950$-$1953$).

The Eisenhower Era and Khrushchev's "Thaw"

• New US Policies: Eisenhower's "Rollback" (pushing back communism) and "New Look" (emphasizing nuclear weapons to save money). Secretary Dulles threatened "massive retaliatory power."

• CIA Coups:

  • Iran ($1953$): Project AJAX. Removed PM Mosaddeq/nationalist (who nationalized oil) and reinstalled the Shah. US/UK received $40\%$ each of Iranian oil shares.

  • Guatemala ($1954$): Overthrew Colonel Arbenz (democratically elected) after he nationalized unused land owned by the United Fruit Company ($UFCO$).

• Peaceful Co-existence ($mid-1950s$ to $mid-1960s$): Khrushchev's "Secret Speech" ($1956$) denounced Stalin and began "Destalinisation." He stated to Tito: "There are different roads to communism."

• Hungarian Uprising ($1956$): Imre Nagy proposed leaving the Warsaw Pact and holding free elections. On $4\,November\,1956$, $1,000$ Soviet tanks destroyed the revolution; $4,000$ Hungarians died and $200,000$ fled.

• Second Crisis Phase:

  • Suez Crisis ($1956$): Nasser nationalized the canal. Led to the Eisenhower Doctrine ($1957$), authorizing US intervention in the Middle East to contain communism.

  • U-2 Crisis ($1\,May\,1960$): Pilot Francis Gary Powers was shot down over the USSR. Eisenhower refused to apologize, ending the Paris Summit and the period of "Peaceful Co-existence."

Crises of the $1960s$: Berlin, Cuba, and Czechoslovakia

• Berlin Wall ($13\,August\,1961$): Built to stop the "brain drain" ($3\,million$ people left East Germany since $1945$). $41$ people shot in the first year; $260+$ total. Kennedy: "Ich bin ein Berliner."

• Cuban Missile Crisis ($1962$):

  • Context: Bay of Pigs ($April\,1961$) - $1,400$ exiled rebels failed. Castro turned to USSR.

  • The Crisis: U-2 photos confirmed missiles on $14\,October\,1962$. Kennedy imposed a "strict quarantine" (blockade). DEFCON $2$ was ordered.

  • Secret Deal: Khrushchev removed missiles from Cuba; Kennedy removal of missiles from Turkey remained secret.

  • Impact: Proliferation of the "Hot Line" ($June\,1963$) and Test Ban Treaty ($1963$).

• Prague Spring ($1968$): Alexander Dubcek promised "socialism with a human face." Brezhnev responded with the Brezhnev Doctrine ($3\,August\,1968$): the USSR would intervene if a socialist state moved toward capitalism. $500,000$ Warsaw Pact troops invaded on $20\,August\,1968$.

The Arms and Space Races

• The Arms Race:

  • Milestones: US atomic bomb ($1945$), USSR atomic bomb ($1949$), US hydrogen bomb ($1954$), USSR hydrogen bomb ($1955$).

  • Glossary of Weaponry:

    • ICBM: Inter-continental Ballistic Missiles ($30$ minute travel time).

    • SLBM: Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (hard to detect).

    • MIRV: Multiple Independently Targeted Re-entry Vehicles (one missile, up to $10$ warheads).

  • MAD: Mutually Assured Destruction - a doctrine where both sides are destroyed if either starts a nuclear war.

• The Space Race:

  • USSR Firsts: Sputnik ($4\,October\,1957$), Laika the Dog ($1957$), Yuri Gagarin ($12\,April\,1961$), Valentina Tereshkova ($1963$), Spacewalk ($1965$).

  • US Victory: Apollo $11$ landed Neil Armstrong on the moon ($21\,July\,1969$). Official end: Apollo-Soyuz handshake ($July\,1975$).

Détente ($1968$-$1979$)

• Reasons: US public exhaustion (Vietnam), stagflation, and Soviet focus on nuclear parity (USSR reached parity in ICBMs with $1,300$ vs US $1,054$). Strategic need to manage the Sino-Soviet Split.

• Key Features:

  • Ostpolitik: West German Chancellor Willy Brandt's policy to normalize relations (Moscow Treaty $1970$, Basic Treaty $1972$).

  • SALT I ($1972$): Limited ABMs (Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty) to $2$ sites each; capped ICBM/SLBM numbers.

  • Helsinki Accords ($1975$): Four "baskets." Basket $1$ (Territorial status quo), Basket $2$ (Commercial/cultural ties), Basket $3$ (Human Rights - contentious), Basket $4$ (Monitoring).

• End of Détente: Fall of Saigon ($1975$), Soviet interference in Angola/Ethiopia, and finally the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan ($1979$).

The End of the Cold War ($1979$-$1991$)

• Afghanistan ($1979$-$1989$): Soviets invaded $25\,December\,1979$ to support the communist regime against the Mujahedeen guerrillas. Carter called it "the greatest threat to world peace since $WWII$."

• Reagan's Renewal: Called the USSR an "evil empire." Launched Reaganomics and the Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI or "Star Wars"), costing $1.5\,trillion$ over $5$ years. Reagan Doctrine: "rollback" rather than "containment."

• Gorbachev's Reforms ($1985$-$1991$):

  • Perestroika: Economic restructuring (failed: only $750,000$ of $130\,million$ were in private firms by $1988$).

  • Glasnost: Openness. Ended censorship and allowed criticism of the party.

  • Foreign Policy: INF Treaty ($1987$) eliminated intermediate missiles. Abolished the Brezhnev Doctrine in $1988$, pulling $10,000$ tanks out of Eastern Europe.

• Final Collapse ($1989$-$1991$):

  • Poland: Solidarity trade union ($Walesa$) won free elections in $1989$.

  • Berlin Wall: Fell $10\,November\,1989$.

  • USSR Dissolution: In $1990$, Baltic states (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia) declared independence. Boris Yeltsin signed the Minsk Agreement in $December\,1991$. Gorbachev resigned on $25\,December\,1991$.