5POLS233-Meanings of Democracy

Political Violence in the U.S. and Public Perception

Historical Trends and Recent Increases in Political Violence

• Historical Context: Historically, the level of violence is not exceptionally high in the U.S. However, there has been a noticeable increase since the $1980s$.

• Comparison to Past Eras: The actual political violence occurring is nowhere near the levels experienced in the $1960s$. However, recent events highlight ongoing concerns.

• Data Limitations: While felony criminal cases involving political violence exist, current figures often do not capture the severity of the crime or the death toll, limiting a full understanding of the impact.

Specific Incidents of Political Violence (Jan $1^{\text{st}}$ - Sep $11^{\text{th}}$, $2025$)

• Definition: A "political violence event" is a single altercation where force is used by one or more groups toward a political end.

• Examples (Fatalities):

  • A state representative and her husband were killed.

  • One person was killed after a bomb detonated at a fertility clinic.

  • Charlie Kirk was killed.

  • $14$ people were killed by a perpetrator linked with ISIS.

  • Two Israeli embassy staff were killed.

• Terrorist Attacks Against Government Targets (US, $1994-2024$): Data from the Global Terrorism Threat Assessment $2025$ by CSIS indicates a trend of extremist partisan attacks and other incidents against government employees and political figures (excluding military and law enforcement).

• Threats and Harassment:

  • There were over $9,000$ threats against members of Congress last year.

  • This is a significant increase from fewer than $4,000$ threats in $2017$.

  • Monthly incidents of threats and harassment against local officials show fluctuating but persistent activity, particularly from $2022$ to $2025$.

Correlation with Political Polarization

• V-Dem Data (2000-2022): Political violence in the United States is correlated with political polarization, suggesting a link between increasing political division and violent acts.

Public Opinion on Political Violence and Discourse

Justification for Political Violence (YouGov Survey, Sep $11$, $2025$; $N=2,623$ US adults)

• Overall Stance:

  • $72\%$ of U.S. respondents believe violence is never justified for citizens to achieve political goals.

  • $11\%$ believe violence can sometimes be justified.

  • $11\%$ were not sure, $5\%$ preferred not to say.

• Perception of Problem Severity:

  • $60\%$ consider political violence a very big problem in the U.S. today.

  • $27\%$ see it as somewhat of a problem.

  • $11\%$ view it as