Saudi Arabia and Iran Rivalry

Key Concepts

  • The Middle East is a complex region with failing states, wars, and numerous armed militias.

  • Saudi Arabia and Iran are key rivals whose feud is central to understanding conflicts in the Middle East.

Proxy Warfare

  • Saudi Arabia and Iran engage in proxy wars, supporting opposing sides in other countries.

  • This has destabilized the region, with both countries vying for influence, leading to a "Cold War."

  • Similar to the US and Soviet Union, they clash in proxy wars without direct military conflict, fighting for control of the Middle East instead of world dominance.

Origins

  • Early 1900s: Arabian Peninsula was a collection of tribes under the Ottoman Empire.

  • 1932: Al-Saud tribe formed the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Massive oil reserves were discovered and created an alliance with the US.

  • Iran also held massive oil reserves and had a large Muslim population but experienced foreign intervention.

  • 1953: US staged a coup, supported monarch Reza Shah, who westernized Iran but was corrupt.

  • By the 1970s, both countries had oil-based economies but had different internal sentiments.

Iranian Revolution

  • 1979: Ayatollah Khomeini led the Islamic Revolution, overthrowing the Shah. This created tension with Saudi Arabia.

  • Khomeini advocated for an Islamic government led by the clergy and against Western-backed monarchies.

  • Saudi Arabia feared the revolution would inspire their population and challenged their leadership of the Muslim world.

  • Saudi Arabia is primarily Sunni, while Iran is Shia, marking an important division, however not the main reason for conflict.

  • Iran began "exporting its revolution," supporting groups in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Saudi Arabia.

  • Saudi Arabia bolstered its alliance with the US and formed the GCC.

Persian Gulf War

  • September 1980: Iraq, under Saddam Hussein, invaded Iran, but the war reached a stalemate.

  • The Saudis supported Iraq with money, weapons, and logistics to contain Iran.

  • The war lasted until 1988, resulting in nearly a million deaths and escalating the feud.

US Invasion of Iraq

  • 2003: The US invasion of Iraq led to a power vacuum and civil war.

  • Sunni and Shia militias emerged, becoming proxies for Saudi Arabia and Iran.

  • The Saudis supported Sunni militias, while Iran supported Shia militias.

Arab Spring

  • 2011: The Arab Spring had different effects on Saudi Arabia and Iran.

  • Saudi Arabia sought regional stability, and Iran aimed to overturn the regional order.

  • The Saudis supported Sunni groups, while Iran supported Shia groups.

Current Conflicts

  • The feud has escalated with both countries deploying their militaries.

  • In Yemen, Saudi Arabia supports the central government against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.

  • In Syria, Iran supports Bashar al-Assad against Saudi-backed Sunni rebel groups.

  • The civil wars have drawn in other countries, with Saudi Arabia threatening Qatar for ties with Iran.

Instability

  • Neither country is actively seeking confrontation. Civil wars create unforeseen conditions.

  • Both countries feel their national interests are threatened and blame each other.

  • The rivalry is unpredictable as the Middle East becomes increasingly unstable.