Diploma Divide: Educational Attainment and the Realignment of the American Electorate

Introduction

  • The article, "Diploma Divide: Educational Attainment and the Realignment of the American Electorate" by Joshua N. Zingher, discusses the political cleavage emerging between college graduates and non-college graduates.

  • The divide is significant for understanding partisanship and voting behaviors in American politics.

  • The paper utilizes data from the American National Election Study (ANES) and Cooperative Election Study (CES) to analyze the relationship between educational attainment and political behavior.

Key Findings

Rise of the Diploma Divide

  • Educational attainment is increasingly a strong predictor of partisanship and voting choices in the U.S.

  • The diploma divide reflects differences in political alignment between college-educated individuals (often more Democratic) and non-college-educated individuals (more Republican) since 2000.

  • At the individual level, education shapes political attitudes, particularly in terms of racial and cultural issues.

County-Level Analysis

  • Between 2000 and 2020, counties with higher percentages of bachelor’s degree holders generally shifted towards the Democratic Party, while less educated counties leaned Republican.

  • The educational context (number of degree-holders) in a county influences how individual educational attainment translates into voting behavior.

  • Areas with a higher percentage of college graduates see a stronger correlation between degree-holding and support for Democratic candidates.

Methodology

Data Used

  • The study employs individual-level data from ANES and CES spanning several years to indicate shifts in voting behavior and partisanship.

  • County demographic data from the U.S. Census is analyzed to reveal trends in educational attainment and voting patterns.

  • The author combines both datasets to assess how county-level educational makeup affects individual-level partisanship.

Individual-Level Analysis

  • The author regresses party identification against educational attainment while controlling for demographic variables and interaction terms to capture changing dynamics in partisanship.

Educational Attainment as a Cultural Lens

Increased Political Polarization

  • Historically, Democrats were seen as appealing to lower-status, less educated individuals, while Republicans attracted higher-status, college-educated voters.

  • Recent shifts have flipped this dynamic, with Democrats gaining support from the educated elite and losing traction among the working-class demographic.

  • The analysis reveals that modern polarization spans multiple issues, including economics, health care, and racial identity, reshaping party affiliations distinctly across educational lines.

Mechanisms Linking Education to Partisanship

  • Zingher explores three hypotheses explaining the education-partisanship link:

  1. Policy attitudes: Different educational levels align with distinct policy preferences; educated voters tend towards greater liberalism on social issues but may have conservative economic views.

  2. Racial and authoritarian dispositions: Education correlates negatively with racial hostility and authoritarianism, affecting political preferences.

  3. Social identity: Education may shape social identities that influence partisanship beyond policy orientation, fostering political cohesion among degree holders.

Context Dependence of Educational Influence

  • The influence of education on political behavior is context-sensitive; education shapes attitudes more definitively in highly educated regions.

  • Clustering of college graduates in urban areas reinforces specific political norms and values, diverging significantly from rural populations, which may bolster conservative attitudes.

Implications of the Diploma Divide

Electoral Consequences

  • The shifting political landscape indicates that the Democratic Party's increasing reliance on college-educated voters creates vulnerability due to urban concentration, potentially diluting their voting power in rural elections.

  • A distrust of institutional credibility among Republicans corresponds with the perception that institutions are controlled by Democrats, creating political polarization and fissures in voter trust across educational lines.

Future of American Politics

  • The emerging demographic landscape, where educational attainment becomes crucial for understanding electoral shifts, signifies a potential for political instability.

Conclusion

  • The diploma divide represents a fundamental transformation in the American political landscape, offering insights into how education shapes partisanship, voting behavior, and the polarization of the electorate.

  • Ongoing demographic changes and the clustering of educated individuals suggest further implications for political alignments in the future.
     

References

  • Includes a bibliography of sources referenced throughout the study, highlighting influential literature that informs Zingher's theses and analyses.