Population Policy: (Different policies and strategies are possible).
Government: Administrative division.
Unitary state: (center decides how much powers local government will usual have single core and multicore with strong Regionalism (small compact, homogeneous) (Ex; Africa).
Regional state: (considerable autonomy of regions) (Ex: Spain: all spanish regions have constitutional autonomy).
Federation: (Large fragmented multicore).
Confederation :(Ex: Bosnia).
Communications & Geography
Communications: Geopolitical/Internal role, Projection of power.
Geography: potential and limits of power ambitions.
Rising new powers disrupt the International Order.
Long term US interests would be most threatened by a grand coalition of CN and RF (natural non convergence of interests).
China’s fear is maritime isolation from world markets.
IR is not equal with geopolitics. Practical foreign policy making - Alfred Mahen (geostrategy).
China
"China is an Island" concept Mcarther - would call Taiwan an unsinkable aircraft carrier.
Belt and Road Initiative Big discrepancy in the North (global warming is beneficial for trading) Largest foreign base in Africa BRI.
Maritime component, undersea component and digital component (kaplan; branding operation).
Goal: establishing an alternative supply chain across Eurasia insulated from the current global. The digital silk Road.
Strategy & Geopolitics
US-China Thucydides Trap.
No Ukraine Model for Taiwan. CSIS war game 2023. Once the war beings it's impossible to get any troops or supplies onto Taiwan. Whatever the Taiwaneses are going to fight the war with they have to have that when the war beings (air superiority is key as well as keeping maritime access open).
Russia’s Grand Strategy Weak great power/willing to challenge.
1) driven by a sense of insecurity (not ideology).
2) Sphere of influence/geographic depth.
3) Recognition of great power status.
Taiwan's Security
It is impossible to get any troops or supplies onto Taiwan once the war begins.
Geopolitics and Black Swans
China is losing the 11th man (isnt it 111th? Like the population decline holiday thing?).
The strength to constitutional democracies is this very factor Xi Jinping faces China's Chernobyl moment. China's authoritarian system is particularly poor at dealing with public health emergencies are we going towards a x moment. Global orders have a tendency to change gradually at first and then all at once.
Assumptions and recommendations
Camouflage theory - it doesn't really matter (blend in and present how you want to be perceived, hide weak points and maintain status even if it isn't 100% inline with reality???). Dynamics of the geopolitics of World Order (in maps) Europe the Pluralistic IO Peace of Westphalia is the origins of World Order Congress of Vienna after 1815 the fall of Napoleon created the architecture for European security starting with the Concert of Europe????
Europe
Major PLayers: Russia, UK, Prussia, France 1815-1915 is the most peaceful period on the balance of power in Europe's history.
Holy Alliance (a challenge to Westphalian equilibrium no more ENG, FR, R, PRU policy….a mechanism to preserve domestic status quo in Europe. The Quadruple Alliance (to defeat challenges to the territorial order).
Concert of powers: Institutionalized through periodic diplomatic conferences/summits to define common purposes or to deal with emerging crises (Precursor of the UNSC) *Separation of domestic issues and international affairs. WW1 after the end of the european vacuum of space (delimitation).
Post WW2 Order and World Orders
Post WW2 Order - It confirms and completely changes the transition of center gravity from europe to non european parts of the world (difficult for europeans to accept). COLD WAR. 75 years of bipolar order america vs Soviet Balance of power developed into `nuclear deterrence. Nations do not compete military superiority (no need in the balance of power).
China
The most crucial geopolitical question a) What sort of world does China want to create i) No limit partnership and an anti west coalition ii) New era of IR b) With what meaning would it achieve its aims? c) What should the US and E do to influence the outcome
Differing Views on China
Revisionist region powers UNipolarity and Universality Putin and Xi determined to make the world safe for autocracy. WO based on distinct spheres of influence (CHN replace the US). Perspectives on China's behavior 2 perspective on china. Zakaria, Friedman, Kaplan, Nye: CHN responsible on the political front of nonintervention not a danger to LWO. Present itself to the world as a burgeoning economic power China's New model of IR CHN working with other countries to make new models International Response.
Global Strategies
US - counters the BRI with the BUILD act a 60 billion investment portfolio (2002 US pacific partnership strategy) INdia: Bri string of Pearls as a plan to dominate Asia in geoeconomic debt trap String of flowers: network of naval facilities in the WIO 3 billion to AFG on infrastructure projects, parliament buildings, roads hospital and dams JAP: 2016 committed to spending 110 billion on infrastructure projects using debt trap diplomacy throughout Asia. Eu: Global gateway (300 billion USD) NATO: ASain pacific forum (QUAD) (AUKUS- Australia) or jokingly FAUKUS - france is actually furious about this because the core behind this cancels the order of submarines from america Strategic AUTONOMY. Conclusion CHN compared to USSR Will aim to dominate transnational economic sectors central to its survival): energy, commodities, technology Purchasing power Parity - can not measure power
Power
Economic power - not only measure of geopolitical importance CHN well behind the Us in military (3x that of CHN - not able to exclude from WPAc or soft power Power projection (theory of J. Herbst) (AFRICA).
State Building
Explanations for the emergence of states as institutions: Humans are territorial in nature and it is considered a security factor Unification and Nation building No unifying you disappeared - Europe In Africa protecting your territory was important so those who couldn't use efficient resources and armies were conquered Writing of Jeffrey Harris, state building Charles Tilly? Colonialism Indirect Rule failed Slow population density made it vulnerable for the taking Borders were put in place to make sure that colonial powers did not collide with each other Namibia strip made by germany Zam narrow strip DRC drawn off the table (king said it was nice shape).
Dysfunction
Issues: Born into the Cold War conflicts created a mess of socialist and capitalist ties in order to get money from the Russian and American Superpowers Neo patrimonial networks. Don't let the rebels reach the capital and you will still get money You are not governing through the institutions but instead everything is being done on an interpersonal level (loyalty is bought and the illusion of stability continues). If a president dies then the network disappears Violent conflicts soon ensue once a power vacuum occurs Principle of divide and conquer plagues neo pat security (Libya example) Post 1945 territorial integrity (ON TEST!!!) Pre 1945 90 percent of European states cease to exist Link between fights and revenues as well as Not a sufficient time frame to see emergence of stable state State building is completely different here. Ex: Eritrea *Cities are important AFG golden route, BRAZ Define Tobar doctrine : The doctrine that *recognition of a government should only be granted if that administration came to power by legitimate democratic means Typology of PG (Political Geo) 4 categories Size, Shape, Distribution if population, Consolidation of power/power projection 1) Unfavorable PG 2)Favorable Hinterland countries: the remote areas of a country away from the coast or the banks of major rivers. Ie Neutral Burkina Faso (Al Quadea and unstable security) Somalia is not recognized Central Africa is only 5 mil people CAR central
World Politics
World politics and era of teichopolitics Argentines perspective continued Australia - Separated by ocean, (Most important partner for the U.S (control and access to South Sea) WE can't change geography we can change policy Tyranny of Geography of Hausmann 1820 period of industrial revolution Liberal World Orders Important because it is on the State Exam (never fully liberal or global/ all encompassing because it was always opposed by part of the globe) Era of geopolitics Beings with Colonial period where globalization begins INdustrial Revolution then occurs and economic and territorial competition beings Geoeconomic marked by decolonization as well as the rise of soft power. Teichpolitcs or Connectivity: the global north strives to secure the position it has gained in previous periods We are heading more towards teichopoltics and deglobalization as well as the rise of hard power Definition.
World Order
World Order is the concept held by a region or civilization; a set of rules or norms within a system regarding the nature of just arrangements and the distribution of thought within the entire world. *(Kissinger) It is a relatively scarce term, balance of power and global hegemony that is accepted by major players Ex: Suez canal was nationalized in the 1950s and a crisis began asked to back off by US and france Realism: none desire conflict but all are driven towards action that conflict more likely (Masrshemier Neoliberalism: international hierarchy, economic flows, insulation, interdependence ect. (Keohane, Nye, Karsner) Constructivism (Wendt) Hobbesian anarchy (states view one another as enemies, war is a common feature of international life, the loser may cease to exist) Lockean anarchy (states view one another as rivals competing for power and influence, war less common and less catastrophic Katinan anarchy (naive geologically speaking states view themselves as friends and cooperate for mutual benefit ) State of Play: The international order is becoming increasingly disorderly, dysfunctional, and even dangerous.
Geopolitical systems
Geopolitical systems: Bipolar, UNipolar, UNimultipolar (2nd class powers or regional powers trying to counter balance hegemony Multipolar (NSA, disintegration, regionalism, heterogeneity of political space Interpolar Modelski’s model of world leadership In the system there is usually a hegemon that is able to enforce their vision of the world as well as be a provider of political order and security Ex: The U.S being a lonely policeman (only) (Broken Window Syndrome?) Illegal activity will flourish if you dont combat it (Horn of Africa Piracy) Every 100 years there is a global conflagration or hegemon. Europe the Pluralist IO Competing dynasties and nationalities creates fragmentation Counting to PEACE OF WESTPHALIA.
Space
Geopolitics of „chaos“: diffusion of power and disintegration of the political map EXTRA DELAMINATION OF SPACE How Europe emerged: complicated way from vertical to horizontal organization of space Born in 1648 the End of THirty Years War - Important to international relations -Space and political environment within europe - The vertical organization of space Larger the empire the longer it is Norman Davies: Europe East and West What is an empire: A single country must first enable itself - The EU is not an empire - The U.S labeled as benevolent, hegemonic empire - Today we have no classical empires One the hardest dilemmas of empire is the management of space and multi ethnicity Most important markers of empires were those with great religion and high culture, thereby leaving a major impact on the history of world civilization What is Europe.
Europe
What is Europe: 1) Geographical Present frontier of Europe on the ridge of the Ural mountains is very arbitrary Catherine the Great of Russia decided that the ancient and traditional frontier of Euriope on the River Tanais est by the Greeks was therefore moved far to the East in order to include the greater portion of Muscovy FRONTIERS AND BORDERS - Political border is clear demarcation of sovereign territory of the state - Border is a political isobar that fixes for a while equilibrium between competing political forces/pressures (Jacques Ancel) - Isobar: a contour bar which interconnects the points with equal atmospheric pressure, highly unstable phenomenon that changes all the time (political borders are considered stagnant but historically political borders move all the time due to competing political forces/pressures.
Pillars of Civilization
Civilization Three pillars of civilization three pillars, Ancient Greece, Ancient Rome and Judeo Christian Tradition None were exclusively or predominantly European Asia Minor - Hellenic civilization Mediterranean Sea Basin - Roman civilization (27BC-476) 3) Political Starting at 117AD “The greater the empire the longer its after shadows” EMpire introduce religion, legal doctrine, infrastructure, economy, and people to create a unifying political organism Roman Empire after shadows: Ex: Holy Roman Empire derives from it to create a confederation of states; Different forms of Hegemonies diallute from this shadow The distribution of Latin script dominates the world because of this Roman Roads show the connectivity Public highways that were maintained by the military (Viae publicae) it was vital since it allowed for quick troop movement and connected economies as well as even having private individuals to connect towns; the third was (viae terrena) dirt roads that connected villages and were often linked to larger networks Romans laid the foundation for development across the continent Chinese silk even made its way to europe.
Byzantine and Eastern Roman Empire
The spread of the Roman Church; helped spread christianity and make it dominant among cultural and political doctrine within all countries that were touched by the empire Rise of Christendom after (476) and the rise of Byzantine and Eastern Roman empire in (395-1453) Europeans still do not call themselves europeans, they are Christians Under emperor Justinian, Constnaitople became the new center. Prior to the great schism in 1054 Europe is divided into Orthodox and Catholic where the Eastern Slavic Principalities and Holy Roman Empires (IBERINA PENINSULA IS THE ONLY PLACE SUCCESSFULLY CONQUERED back to christianity form the Byzantium Islam. China however is different, for extremely long periods of time China has had little hegemonic rule because dynasties were prevalent and created a dynastic cycle.
Africa Hot-Spots Study
Libya: Strategic location and proxy influence.
Sahel (Mali, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso): Security and development challenges.
Central African Republic: Internal conflict and weak governance.
Democratic Republic of Congo: Resource wealth and instability.
Ethiopia: Ethnic divisions and Tigray conflict.
Somalia + Al-Shabab: Fragile state and extremist group.
Middle East Hot-Spots Study
Yemen: Civil war and Saudi-led coalition.
Israel vs Palestine: Historical background and occupied territories.
Lebanon: Sectarian divisions and Hezbollah influence.