Notes: The $$2003$$ Invasion of Iraq

Class Logistics & Paper Submission

  • Required Reading: Chapters 7 and 8 were assigned for the week.

  • Supplemental Material: The instructor will send out chapters from Vali Nasr's new open-sourced book. Nasr is the author of "The Shia Revival" book, which is also part of the course reading.

  • Short Paper:

    • Due Date: Postponed to Sunday, 11:59 PM.

    • Availability for Questions: Available via email today, Friday, and Saturday. Unavailable Sunday.

    • Submission Format: Email the paper as a Microsoft Word document.

    • Grading & Feedback: This is a final, shorter version of the longer paper. It will be graded but also used to help students develop their argument and writing for the final paper. The goal is improvement, not to "tear it apart." The instructor may print and hand back commented papers or send them digitally.

    • Formatting Guidelines:

      • Microsoft Word.

      • 12 font.

      • One-inch margins.

      • Double-spaced.

      • Spell-checked, complete sentences.

      • Avoid repeating words (instructor will circle with "word choice").

    • Writing Process: Encourage starting to write, then editing. Emphasize that writing is iterative (e.g., instructor edited dissertation chapter 20 times).

    • AI Use & References:

      • Discouraged use of ChatGPT to avoid similar writing styles and to ensure genuine learning.

      • Crucially, use references. Arguments, whether major or minor, require citations to show where the information came from or how the argument was developed.

      • Purdue OWL: Recommended resource for citation styles (e.g., Chicago, APA). The instructor uses Chicago style. This resource helps with formatting bibliographies and in-text citations for various source types (books, online articles, interviews, YouTube videos, podcasts).

Class Discussion & Q&A

  • Diversity in the Middle East & Levant:

    • A student shared an anecdote from a Palestinian individual suggesting Levant societies perceive Islam differently and are structured distinctly from the Greater Middle East.

    • The instructor strongly countered this, emphasizing that the region (including sub-regions, countries, provinces, communities, and even families) cannot be put "in a box" due to immense diversity.

    • Generalizations about religious perception and practice are overly broad. Factors like specific sect, sub-sect, family background (secular, religious, modernist, conservative) all contribute to varied practices.

    • Instructor's expertise focuses on Iran, Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, dealing with Islamism and militant Islamism, not the specific dynamics of the Levant mentioned.

The 2003 Invasion of Iraq

Core Objectives of the Invasion

  • Declared Goals (March 2003): Destroy Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and end the dictatorial rule of Saddam Hussein.

  • Grand Ayatollah Sistani's Role: Reportedly told his community not to resist the American advance into Baghdad. This was interpreted by U.S. officials (Deputy Secretary of Defense) as a positive sign.

    • Reasoning for Sistani's Stance: He was aware of the brutalization of Shia Muslims under Saddam Hussein's Sunni-majority government. Recognizing that Shias were the marginalized majority, he likely saw the invasion as an opportunity for a "reset" or "refresh" that could realign the balance of power in favor of the Shia population.

Justifications for the Invasion & Controversies

  1. Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs):

    • Primary Justification: The U.S. argued Iraq possessed WMDs and failed to comply with UN inspections after the Gulf War.

    • Historical Context: Iraq did possess chemical weapons previously and used them extensively during the Iran-Iraq War and against its own Kurdish population.

      • Halabja Massacre & Anfal Genocide: Saddam Hussein's regime used chemical weapons against Kurds in Halabja and surrounding areas (estimated 5,000 immediate deaths) and engaged in the Anfal genocide campaign, including mass burials, against Kurds for seeking independence and allegedly collaborating with Iran.

      • Lingering Effects: Chemical agents contaminated groundwater and soil, causing ongoing health issues and deaths among survivors.

    • Post-Invasion Findings: No active WMD stockpiles were found after the 2003 invasion, leading to major controversy. The UN reported that some existing deposits had been destroyed.

    • Intelligence Failure or Conspiracy?: This became a case study for intelligence failures in the instructor's master's program. The fate of Saddam's prior WMDs remains unclear (e.g., used them, hid them, sold them).

    • Defining WMDs: Generally refers to weapons causing mass casualties (e.g., ballistic missiles with chemical warheads, like Agent Orange used in Vietnam).

  2. Links to Terrorism:

    • Argument: Iraq was framed as part of the broader "War on Terror" after the 9/11 attacks.

    • Reality: Subsequent investigations found little to no evidence of operational collaboration between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda.

    • Saddam's Interactions: However, in the late 1990s and during the final stages of his regime, Saddam did allow certain individuals/groups considered "terrorist actors" into Iraq, particularly in Kurdish areas.

Consequences of the Invasion

  1. Fall of the Ba'ath Regime & Sectarian Shift:

    • End of Sunni Rule: The invasion ended centuries of Sunni dominance over Iraq.

    • Power Vacuum: The U.S. not only changed the regime but challenged the entire governance system, creating a vacuum.

    • Shia Empowerment: Iraq became the first Arab-majority country officially ruled by a democratically empowered Shia majority. This was a significant outcome, leading to improved political status for the previously marginalized and suppressed Shia population.

    • Iran's Strategic Win: The Iranian government perceived Saddam's toppling as a victory in the Iran-Iraq War, knowing Iraq would fall into its sphere of influence.

  2. Shia Revival and Regional Impact:

    • Reshaped Landscape: The "Shia revival" fundamentally reshaped Iraq's sectarian and political landscape, and the wider Middle East.

    • Increased Iranian Power: The development of Shia militias substantially increased Iran's power base in Iraq and the region.

      • Transnational Militias: Religious identity transcended national borders. For example, during Iranian protests (triggered by the killing of a girl for improper hijab use, escalating into a potential revolution), Iran deployed not only its Basij and IRGC forces but also Iraqi Shia militiamen to control the streets. These foreign militias were less likely to sympathize with Iranian protesters compared to conscripted Iranian soldiers.

  3. Sidelining of Sunnis:

    • Disenfranchisement: The U.S. dissolution of the Ba'ath Party and disbandment of the Iraqi army led to mass unemployment and loss of status for many Sunnis previously holding key political and military positions. (Reference to an anecdote where an ex-Ba'athist official expressed intense anger and feeling disenfranchised).

    • Deepened Divisions: This loss of power deepened sectarian divisions, fostering cycles of violence.

    • Rise of Extremist Groups: These conditions allowed extremist groups like Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and later ISIS to gain significant support in Sunni-majority areas, leveraging the chaos and disenfranchisement.

  4. Kurdish Reaction and Empowerment:

    • Historical Persecution: Kurds faced immense persecution under previous Iraqi regimes, particularly the Ba'athists, for their long-standing desire for independence.

    • Post-Invasion Opportunity: Saddam's fall provided Kurds a chance to further their autonomy.

    • Self-Rule & Development: They gained political power in Baghdad, secured recognition for self-rule in the new Iraqi constitution, developed their own military (Peshmerga), rebuilt cities, attracted investment, and promoted their culture and language.

    • Support Against ISIS: Kurdish forces, including many women, actively fought against ISIS, greatly aiding the U.S. and others.

    • Current Status: Arguably one of the safest areas in Iraq, with its own foreign policies and diplomatic engagements. Kurdish dedication to preventing future genocides remains a driving force.

    • Tensions: Their growing autonomy also created tensions with other groups in Iraq, highlighting the complexity.

Alternative Outcomes and Challenges

  • Student Discussion on "What if?" Scenarios:

    • Maintaining Ba'athist Payrolls: One suggestion was for the U.S. to continue paying the dispossessed Ba'ath party members and Iraqi military. This raises questions about duration, cost, and public support in the U.S., as well as the contradiction with framing them as working with terrorists. It's acknowledged as a highly complex issue.

    • Power Vacuum/Chaos Inevitability: Discussions highlighted whether the power vacuum and chaos were entirely due to U.S. involvement (e.g., comparison to Libya's chaos post-Gaddafi without full invasion). The idea was raised that an invasion acted as a "catalyst" for conflicts already deeply rooted in decades of societal issues, meaning similar chaos might have occurred eventually, regardless of the direct invasion. It's noted that Iraq has experienced conflict since Saddam invaded Iran in September 1980, with deeper sectarian issues following Saddam's fall.

    • Representative Governance: A suggestion to establish a power-sharing model akin to Lebanon (where positions are alotted to different sects) was raised, but recognized as a very long-term and difficult endeavor in Iraq's context.