March 25, Geog rec

Understanding Risk and Hazard

• Definition of Risk and Hazard

  • Risk: Consists of hazard combined with the extent of vulnerability.
  • Hazard: A potential threat or danger, such as natural disasters.
  • Vulnerability: Refers to the susceptibility to harm that results from exposure to hazards.
  • Relationship: Although risk can be conceptually expressed as risk = hazard * vulnerability (or risk = exposure * vulnerability), it is not a strict mathematical formula. Weak vulnerabilities can exacerbate the impact of hazards.

• Vulnerability Components

  • Susceptibility: The inherent characteristics or conditions that make a person or community more likely to be affected by hazards.
  • Coping in Immediate Events: The ability to manage and respond effectively during extreme events.
  • Long-term Adaptation: The adjustments made to deal with future risks and hazards.

• Disaster Context

  • Human Factors in Disasters
  • The textbook posits that there is no such thing as a "natural disaster" as societal factors and vulnerabilities significantly shape the impact of hazards.
  • Example: Extreme events like droughts or flooding compounded by issues like poverty or social exclusion create disaster situations.

Case Study: Hurricane Katrina

• Overview

  • Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans in August 2005 after forming in the Bahamas and heading towards the Gulf Coast. It led to devastating flooding, particularly in low-lying areas like New Orleans.

• Geographical Context

  • New Orleans is uniquely vulnerable due to its low elevation, with significant portions of the city below sea level.
  • The city has experienced numerous hurricanes before, indicating a known risk yet insufficient preparedness.

• Environmental Factors

  • Soil Composition: The city is built on a mix of silt, sand, and clay, which causes sinking over time.
  • Before urbanization, natural flooding replenished soil, but levees prevent this, leading to further sinking at a rate of approximately three feet every hundred years.

• Impact of the Hurricane

  • Significant flooding occurred, with entire neighborhoods submerged. The situation was exacerbated by failures in infrastructure and preparedness.

• Post-Disaster Analysis

  • A congressional report highlighted that warnings had been ignored for decades and that many residents, particularly marginalized communities, were left particularly vulnerable with inadequate support.

• Social Justice Perspective

  • Barack Obama emphasized the abandonment of low-income neighborhoods not just during the hurricane but over years of neglect regarding social infrastructure.
  • Lower Ninth Ward: Particular focus on marginalized communities that were hit hardest due to existing socio-economic vulnerabilities.

Discussion: Shock Doctrine and Disaster Capitalism

• Shock Doctrine Concept

  • Naomi Klein’s idea that governments exploit disasters to push through unpopular policies due to public distraction created by the emergency.
  • Emergency situations can be leveraged politically to avoid scrutiny of significant policy changes.

• Disaster Capitalism

  • The emergence of private sectors profiting from crises, exemplified in the aftermath of events like Hurricane Katrina and historical cases like Haiti.
  • Areas of structural inequity highlighted, particularly in the aftermath of extensive natural disasters.

Climate Change and Future Risks

• Sea Level Rise

  • New Orleans’s geographical vulnerability exacerbated by rising sea levels, increasing the risk of future flooding.
  • Historical tracking notes that sea level rise has accelerated, warranting urgent planning and adaptation measures.

• Managed Retreat Implications

  • Managed retreat involves relocating populations in response to climate risks. This presents complex socio-economic challenges and questions around budget impacts.

• Global Context on Vulnerability

  • Low-lying cities worldwide (e.g., Lagos, Alexandria, Senegal) face similar risks due to climate change including storm surges and flooding. Urban planning must consider marginalized communities often overlooked in disaster preparedness.

Understanding Vulnerability Through Mapping

• Vulnerability Triangle

  • Incorporates susceptibility, coping capacities, and adaptation strategies when assessing disaster risk and resilience.

• World Risk Index

  • Visual representation of global vulnerability based on susceptibility and coping capacity. Example classifications include:
  • Low risk: Countries with robust coping mechanisms.
  • Moderate risk: Countries like Japan with historical disaster preparedness but ongoing exposure.
  • High risk: Areas like the Philippines with high vulnerability due to both natural hazards and socio-economic factors.

• Moderated Social Assessment

  • Historical assessment of how socio-economic inequality impacts responses to disasters, with a call to address marginalization in policy planning and disaster preparedness.