(Mod 10) Jerome Glenn, Thinking ahead

Pages 48–49

1. The Millennium Project

  • A global think‑tank studying the 15 Global Challenges facing humanity.

  • Goal: help the world build a better future, but current efforts are inefficient.

  • The challenges are interconnected — progress in one helps the others.

⭐ 2. The World Today: Good News + Bad News

Good Trends

  • Fewer wars: armed conflicts down 40% since early 1990s.

  • International crises down 70% (1981–2001).

  • Arms transfers down 33% (1990–2003).

  • Refugees down 45% (1992–2003).

  • Global economy growing faster than population → rising per‑capita income.

Bad Trends

  • Water tables falling; 40% of people rely on shared water sources.

  • Human consumption is 23% above what nature can regenerate.

  • Widening income inequality in 53 countries (80% of humanity).

  • 2.5 billion people live on $2/day or less.

  • Poor countries can’t compete with China/India’s low‑wage, high‑tech industries.

  • Commodity‑dependent countries will suffer as resources run out.

⭐ 3. If We Continue “Business as Usual”

  • Expect:

    • Environmental collapse

    • Economic failures

    • Mass migration

    • Rising anger over inequality

  • People want to do the right thing, but leadership + clear plans are missing.

⭐ 4. Population Trends

  • World population: 6.5B → 9B by 2050, then possibly down to 5.5B by 2100.

  • Aging + longer lives will force changes in:

    • Retirement

    • Healthcare

    • Social systems

⭐ 5. Infectious Disease Risks

  • Disease threats are unpredictable.

  • Sequencing tech is faster (HIV took 15 years; SARS took 1 month).

  • But vaccines may not keep up.

  • New idea: medicines that boost the immune system quickly, regardless of disease.

⭐ 6. Violence Against Women

  • After disease + hunger, violence against women is the biggest cause of death for women.

  • 1 in 5 women experience rape or attempted rape.

  • 1 in 3 women experience some form of violence.

  • 80% of human trafficking victims are women → “largest slave trade in history.”

⭐ 7. Rapid Technological Change

  • Genetic engineering may allow:

    • Creating life forms that produce hydrogen fuel

    • Printing artificial organs using living cells

  • Technology is accelerating so fast it may outpace human control.

  • Need a global system to help the public + politicians understand science.

⭐ 8. What the World Needs

  • A coordinated process linking:

    • Governments

    • Corporations

    • Universities

  • Better public education on global challenges (e.g., films like An Inconvenient Truth).

  • Ethical, long‑term thinking in policymaking.

⭐ 9. Terrorism & Future Risks

  • Terrorism grows when systems feel unjust.

  • Future tech (like desktop molecular manufacturing) could let individuals create weapons of mass destruction.

  • Therefore, global cooperation between rich and poor is practical, not idealistic.

⭐ 10. Big Idea

“The welfare of all depends on the welfare of each person.”
This isn’t idealism — it may become necessary for global security.