Inflation
Purchasing Power: the real goods and services that money can buy, which determines the value of money
Inflation: a rise in general level of prices in an economy (INC. quantity → DEC. value)
Measured by the inflation rate - the % of increase in prices in the economy
Considering all things equal , causes a decline in purchasing power
Good range PER YEAR is 2-3%
Cause of inflation
prices rise when the government prints too much money
Large quantities of money available … so value of money falls
Why print money?
Pay off debt (not enough tax revenue)
To get out of a recession/depression
Deflation: a prolonged decline in the general level of prices in an economy
May be more damaging than inflation
If things cost less, people are getting paid less
Producers are earning less → get less stock
Shrinkflation: companies reducing the size or quantity of their products while charging the same price or even more
Ex. ziploc boxes reducing the # of bags, but keeping the same price
Measures of Inflation:
GDP Deflator
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Producer Price Index (PPI)
GDP Deflator: removes the effects of inflation from GDP
This enables the overall economy in one year to be compared to a different year
GDP Deflator = Nominal Value / Real (AFI) Value X 100
% Change = new bigger value – new smaller value / smaller value X 100
2023 GDP = 27 T / 23 T X 100 = 117.3 T
2022 GDP = 24 T / 21 T X 100 = 114.2
% change = 117.3 - 114.2 / 114.2 X 100 = 2.7% INCREASE
Consumer Price Index (CPI): measure of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer
Measures changes in the cost of living over time
When CPI rises, the typical family has to spend more dollars to maintain the same standard of living
Calculated by market basket
Market Basket: a collection of goods and services that the typical consumer buys
This ‘basket’ is created by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
The BLS conducts monthly surveys of 80,000 prices to determine how the %’s in the market basket are affected
Components of CPI :
Housing - 40%
Transportation - 15%
Food & beauty - 15%
Apparel
Medical / healthcare
Education
Recreation (fun)
Other G & S
Problems in measuring the CPI:
The BLS is slow to change the market basket:
Substitution Bias: consumers substitute expensive goods for cheaper goods
Introduction of New Goods: BLS does not initially add new products to the basket, ignoring increased variety of goods
Unmeasured Quality Changes: > quality = > dollar value (and vise versa)
Hard to adjust prices for quality changes
These 3 problems cause the CPI to overstate the true cost of living (0.5-1% per year)
C.O.L changes may not be as bad as the CPI implies
Many gov’t programs use the CPI to adjust budgets, so inaccuracies can cost money
Producer Price Index: measures the cost of a basket of goods and services bought by firms rather than consumers
Adjusting for Inflation
CPI indexes are used to correct for the effects of inflation when comparing dollar figures from different times
To adjust for inflation, “inflate” the past value to determine the current value:
Value of current year = Value of past year X ( CPI in current year / CPI in past year )