The Political Shape of the Future: Fear of China and the Emerging International Order
The Fallacy of Top-Down Global Governance
Conventional Perspectives on International Repair: * Some argue for a rededication to the liberal order established 75 years ago. * Others propose a "concert of powers" to guide multipolar cooperation. * A third group suggests a "grand bargain" to divide the globe into stable spheres of influence.
The Shared Flaw: These visions assumed global governance can be designed and imposed from the top down through statesmanship and summits.
The Reality of Historical Orders: Michael Beckley argues that the strongest orders (Westphalia to the Cold War liberal order) were not inclusive organizations for humanity's good. Instead, they were alliances built by great powers to wage security competition against rivals. * The Driver of Cooperation: "Fear and loathing of a shared enemy," rather than enlightened calls for a better world, catalyzed these orders. * Duration: Cooperation typically lasted only while a common threat remained present and manageable. * The Soviet Catalyst: The current liberal order is fraying primarily because its original unifying threat—Soviet communism—disappeared three decades ago.
The Theory of Orders of Exclusion
Definition: Drawing on international relations theorist Kyle Lascurettes, an "order of exclusion" is designed by dominant powers to ostracize and out-compete rivals. It is "power politics by other means."
Foundation: Fear of an enemy, not faith in friends, forms the bedrock of the order.
Sociological Basis: The "in-group/out-group dynamic."
Philosophical Basis: "Sallust’s Theorem," named after the ancient historian who argued that fear of Carthage was the glue holding the Roman Republic together.
Psychological Basis: "Negative Partisanship" — the tendency for loyalty to emerge purely from a shared hatred of a rival.
Historical Timeline of Exclusionary Orders: * Peace of Westphalia (1648): Designed to undermine the authority of the Catholic Church and the Holy Roman Empire. * Treaty of Utrecht (1713): Designed by Britain and its allies to contain France by delegitimizing expansion through royal marriages (Louis XIV’s preferred method). * Concert of Europe (1815): Established in Vienna to forestall the rise of liberal revolutionary regimes. * Interwar Order (Post-WWI): Built to check Germany and Bolshevik Russia. * Global Order (Post-WWII): Initially designed via the UN to prevent Nazi-style fascism. When the Cold War started, the West created a separate order to exclude and outcompete Soviet communism.
The Cold War Origins of Modern Institutions
Repurposed Institutions: After the Soviets declined to join the IMF, World Bank, and GATT, these were turned into agents of capitalist expansion.
The Marshall Plan: Aid was lavished on governments that agreed to expel communists and move toward economic federation.
Strategic Alliances: NATO and the chain of alliances in East Asia (including Japan and West Germany) were designed to contain the Red Army and communist expansion from China and North Korea.
The Sino-Soviet Split: U.S. engagement with China from the 1970s to the 2010s was a calculated gambit to exploit the split between China and the USSR.
The Post-Cold War Unraveling
The Arbatov Warning: In 1988, Soviet official Georgi Arbatov told a U.S. audience: "We are going to do a terrible thing to you… We are going to deprive you of an enemy."
The Failure of Global Expansion: Following the Soviet collapse, Western allies tried to expand the liberal order into a global one. NATO membership doubled, the European Community became the EU, and GATT became the WTO.
The Myth of Joinability: Political scientist G. John Ikenberry argued in 2008 that the system was "hard to overturn and easy to join." It was assumed that illiberal members would gradually be reformed into "responsible stakeholders."
Organizational Hypocrisy: All orders contain the seeds of their own demise because they must exclude hostile nations and squelch domestic opposition. This eventually triggers a backlash of state sovereignty, nationalism, and religion.
Current Buckling Pillars: * NATO: Disputes over burden sharing. * EU: The Eurozone crisis, Brexit, and the rise of xenophobic right-wing parties. * WTO: The multilateral trade talks have dragged on for 20 years without agreement, and the U.S. has crippled the Appellate Court over failures to regulate Chinese nontariff barriers.
The Rise of the Chinese Threat
Strategic Objectives: Return the CCP to dominance, reabsorb Taiwan, and control the East and South China Seas.
Shift in Methodology: Move from Deng Xiaoping’s maxim of "Hide your strength, bide your time" to aggressive "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy.
Maritime Aggression: Beijing is producing warships faster than any country since WWII. It employs ship ramming and aerial interceptions to push neighbors out of disputed areas. Pentagon officials fear an imminent invasion of Taiwan.
Economic Offensive: * Chokepoints: China aims to dominate goods and services other countries cannot live without. * Lending: Over $1 trillion in debt distributed to more than 150 countries. * Coercion: For example, slapping tariffs on Australia for requesting a COVID-19 investigation.
Exporting Authoritarianism: Selling "tools of tyranny" (surveillance, AI, biometrics, facial recognition) to over 80 countries.
The Emerging Anti-Chinese Order
Coalition Sentiment: A 2021 Pew survey found roughly in the U.S., Europe, and Asia hold unfavorable views of China. believe in forming coalitions against China.
Shift in Priorities: The new order flips the emphasis from capitalism-first to democracy-first. While the Cold War "free world" was an economic construct that supported autocrats over leftists, the new order requires democratic standards for full membership.
Economic Architecture: * G-7 Control: Controls more than half the world's wealth. * Strategic Sectors: Competition over AI, biotechnology, semiconductors, and telecommunications. * Infrastructure Alternatives: G-7's "Build Back Better World" and EU's "Global Gateway" offer alternatives to the Belt and Road Initiative. * Supply Chain Resilience Initiative: Started by Australia, India, and Japan to move operations out of China. * Export Controls: The U.S., Netherlands, South Korea, and Taiwan have worked to cut China off from advanced semiconductors. The "Export Controls and Human Rights Initiative" targets technologies used for digital authoritarianism.
Military Architecture (Double Barrier): * Inside Layer: Neighbors (Indonesia, Japan, Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam) using mobile missile launchers and mines to act as "prickly porcupines." * Outside Layer: Australia, India, the UK, and the U.S. providing aid, arms, and intelligence. * Specific Pacts: The Quad (U.S., India, Japan, Australia) and AUKUS (Australia, UK, U.S.).
Vulnerabilities of the New Coalition
Economic Interdependence: Many countries remain "hooked on Chinese trade."
U.S. Stability: Potential for a constitutional crisis or civil strife following the 2024 election.
European Hesitation: Many Europeans view China as an opportunity rather than a threat and fear U.S. technology dominance (and political unreliability following the Trump presidency).
Indian Nonalignment: India may resist a democratic order while becoming more repressive at home.
Democratic Crisis: Nationalism and populism are at their highest since the 1930s.
The Next Liberal Order (Ikenberry Perspective)
The Turning Point: Spring 2020 (COVID-19 pandemic) marked a breakdown in cooperation among allies.
Two Types of Problems: * Problems of Anarchy: Hegemonic struggles, power transitions, and spheres of influence. * Problems of Modernity: Transnational dangers from science and technology, such as climate change, pandemics, financial crises, and AI. These are "contagions" that do not respect borders.
Rooseveltian Model: Franklin Roosevelt argued that internationalism was not about tearing down borders but about managing the complex interdependence of modern societies for national well-being.
The Cost of Confrontation: Beckley estimates Chinese espionage deprives the U.S. alone of between $200 billion and $600 billion annually. Despite these costs, the path forward requires a "long twilight struggle" and a renewed commitment to democratic values.