Campaigns and Elections
Voting
Definition of Voting
Voting is a traditional form of political participation and is considered the single most important political act for most Americans.
Suffrage
Defined as the right to vote.
The expansion of suffrage throughout American history has included:
The 15th Amendment, which granted the right to vote to African American men.
The Nineteenth Amendment, which allowed women to vote nationwide in 1920.
The Twenty-Sixth Amendment, which extended voting rights to individuals aged 18 to 21.
Voter Turnout
Overview of Voter Turnout
Voting rights are granted to almost all citizens aged 18 and older.
Despite this, U.S. voter turnout remains relatively low.
Voter Turnout Definition: The percentage of eligible individuals who actually vote.
Historical Statistics:
Since the 1960s, presidential election turnout has averaged about 60%.
Non-presidential election years show much lower turnout rates.
US Voter Turnout Statistics
Preliminary Data
Suggests the highest U.S. election turnout since 1900.
Turnout rates for U.S. presidential elections since 1900 include:
1900: 73.2%
1920: 66.9%
1940: 60%
1960: approximately 60%
1980: approximately 60%
2000: approximately 50%
2020: preliminary estimate substantially higher.
Voting as a Costly Act
Considerations When Voting
Voting is primarily a costly act in terms of time.
Utility
Defined as the satisfaction derived from various experiences or outcomes.
Individuals generally prefer greater utility.
Expected Utility Definition: Combines the utility of various possible outcomes with the probabilities of each occurring.
The Probability of Being Decisive
Factors Influencing a Vote's Impact
The effect of an individual's vote on a candidate's probability of winning can change:
A) If an election results in a tie without the vote, the vote can decide the outcome.
B) If the election results in a narrow victory for a non-preferred candidate, and the vote makes it a tie.
Rationality of Voting
Does Voting Make Rational Sense?
In American elections, outcomes are rarely decided by just one vote.
Costs of voting generally lead a rational voter to abstain:
P imes B < C
Where P = probability of impacting outcome, B = benefit of voting, C = cost of voting.
However, benefits can be categorized:
A) Future benefits accrued post-election.
B) Immediate benefits derived from the act of voting itself.
Civic Duty
Definition of Civic Duty
A sense of obligation felt by citizens to participate in their governance.
Adds responsibility or community belonging, making voting more rational:
P imes B + D > C
Where D = civic duty benefits.
This explanation does not fully capture why individuals vote—some vote simply for the enjoyment of voting itself.
Elections in America
Types of Elections
Midterm Elections: Congressional elections that do not coincide with presidential elections.
Primary Elections: Held to select a party's candidate for the general election.
Closed Primary: Only voters registered with the party can participate.
Open Primary: All registered voters, including independents, can participate.
Caucuses: Party meetings to select candidates.
General Election: Concludes after the primary elections to determine who holds office.
Presidential Party Nominations
Nomination Process
Takes months and involves a series of state primaries and caucuses, where candidates earn delegates for the national convention.
The process is increasingly "frontloaded," with states attempting to hold their contests earlier.
At conventions, parties also create a Party Platform, detailing party philosophy, principles, and policy positions.
Presidential Elections Process
Selection Dynamics
Voters select "electors" instead of candidates during the general election.
The role of electors: They comprise the Electoral College.
Electors: The state party of the winning candidate selects these electors.
Electoral Composition: Each state's number of electors equals its congressional delegation (House + 2 Senators).
Total elector count equals 538, requiring 270 votes for a win.
Steps in Electing the President
8 Key Steps in the Process
Formation of an Exploratory Committee: Established 18 to 24 months before elections to begin fundraising and media outreach.
Fundraising: Candidates develop strategies to amass significant funds early in the race.
Campaigning: Begins months before primaries, involving local meetings, public appearances, and ad campaigns.
Primaries and Caucuses: Initial contests are critical for momentum, highlighting the importance of states like Iowa and New Hampshire.
The Convention: National party conventions held prior to the general election to announce nominees officially.
General Election Campaign: Focuses on battleground states, running ads, fundraising, and mobilizing voters.
The Debates: Candidates participate in several televised debates leading up to the election.
The General Election: Voters cast ballots on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, determining electoral college votes.
Electoral College Meeting: Electors meet in their capitals in December; votes counted in January.
Inauguration: The president is officially inaugurated on January 20 of the following year.
Election of 2000
Notable Event
Al Gore won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College, 271-266.
Loss in Florida was pivotal, with a margin of 537 votes, which would have given Gore 291 electoral votes.
The Florida results necessitated a recount, which was interrupted by the Supreme Court case Bush v. Gore, resulting in Bush's victory.
Third Parties in Elections
Influence and Representation
Third parties often highlight social and economic interests unaddressed by the two major parties.
They may serve as protest movements against major party shortcomings.
Potential influence exists through pushing major parties to address specific issues, contingent on media and voter engagement.
Notable example: Ralph Nader received 3% of the popular vote in 2000, influencing the election towards George W. Bush.
Parties and Candidates in 2016
Election Data
Candidates and Vote Totals:
Hillary Clinton (Democratic): 65,853,652 votes (48%)
Donald Trump (Republican): 62,985,134 votes (46%)
Gary Johnson (Libertarian): 4,489,235 votes (3%)
Jill Stein (Green): 1,457,226 votes (1%)
Other candidates: 1,186,153 votes (0.9%)
Preliminary counts as of December 1, 2016. Source: U.S. Election Atlas.
Third Parties and Election Reforms
Structural Barriers
U.S. election rules promote a two-party system.
Supporters of reform advocate for Proportional Representation (PR), allocating government seats based on the percentage of votes received.
Strict state ballot-access laws pose hurdles for third parties, including registration fees and petition requirements.
Election Campaigns
Modern Campaign Dynamics
Political campaigns have become increasingly complex. Key determinants include whether there is an incumbent or an open seat.
Successful campaigns typically require professional management, organization, and extensive volunteer networks.
Campaign Strategy (Part 1)
Campaign Types
Grassroots Campaigns
Operate locally, leveraging face-to-face interaction to garner support.
Mass Media Campaigns
Extensively use media for advertising, increasingly featuring negative or attack ads.
Growth in sponsorship from political parties and advocacy groups.
Digital and social media offer innovative advertising platforms.
Campaign Strategy (Part 2)
Mobilization and Targeting
Micro-targeting: Allows campaigns to tailor messages to specific voter segments.
Campaigns primarily focus on mobilizing supporters to assure voter turnout.
Sources of Campaign Funds
Contribution Limits
Individual contributions are limited to:
$2,800 per candidate per election
$5,000 per federal PAC per year
$35,500 per national party committee per year
$10,000 to state/local committees per year
Political Action Committees (PACs)
Defined as private groups that raise and distribute funds for election campaigns, established by corporations, labor unions, and interest groups.
Campaign Finance Legislation
Before 2002, campaign donations included large amounts of “soft money,” or unregulated contributions to national parties.
527 Committees (Super PACs): Nonprofit independent committees raising unlimited funds but cannot coordinate with candidates directly.
501c(4) Committees (Dark Money): Nonprofits spending unlimited funds on political campaigns without disclosing donors, provided political activities are not primary.