Notes on Democratic Backsliding and Resilience

Introduction to Democracy and its Decline

  • Discussion on health markets and democracy.
  • Purpose of presentation: Explore the concept of democratic breakdown in various countries.
  • Importance of understanding contemporary democracy and its challenges.

The Expansion and Contraction of Democracy

  • Three Waves of Democratization (Samuel Huntington):
    • First Wave (1828-1926):
    • Expansion of suffrage, particularly in the US and some other nations.
    • Second Wave (1945-1962):
    • Post World War II period, influenced by the establishment of the Liberal International Order.
    • Third Wave (1974-1990s):
    • Significant democratization in countries like Spain, Portugal, and parts of Latin America and Eastern Europe.
  • Democratization Benefits:
    • Improved human rights enforcement.
    • Faster economic growth in democracies compared to autocracies.
    • The democratic peace theory: No wars between democracies.
  • Current Trends:
    • Recent data indicates more countries slipping into autocracy than transitioning into democracy.

Democratic Backsliding

  • Definition:
    • Erosion of democratic norms and institutions through actions by democratically elected leaders.
  • Key Indicators of Backsliding:
    • Authoritarianism replacing democratic norms rapidly.
    • Use of elections as a facade to maintain control while undermining democratic practices.
  • Recent Examples of Backsliding:
    • Turkey, Russia, Hungary, Venezuela, and potentially the US.
  • Mechanisms Leading to Death of Democracy:
    • Strategic Manipulation:
    • Changes in electoral laws, and harassment of political opponents.
    • Executive Overreach:
    • Concentration of power in the executive branch leads to weakening of legislative checks.
    • Weakened Legislative Bodies:
    • Countries with weak legislatures are more prone to backsliding.
    • Increased Polarization:
    • Sharp divisions within society make cooperation difficult, leading to instability.

The Role of Political Parties and Institutions

  • Political parties should act as gatekeepers to prevent the rise of extremist or authoritarian figures.
  • Protect against external and internal threats by maintaining coalitions focused on democratic principles.
  • Crisis Moments:
    • Political outsiders capitalize on crises to undermine established systems, as seen in examples like Weimar Germany and Venezuela under Hugo Chavez.

Competitive Authoritarianism

  • Definition:
    • A regime retaining democratic institutions but violating essential democratic principles like free elections.
  • Characteristics:
    • Elections held but often rigged or manipulated.
    • Media bias in favor of the ruling party while suppressing dissent.
  • Current Examples:
    • Regimes of Vladimir Putin (Russia), Victor Orban (Hungary), and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey) display competitive authoritarianism characteristics.

Resilience of Democracy and Future Implications

  • Importance of civic engagement and vigilance to combat authoritarian tendencies.
  • Recent positive signs of resilience in democracies, e.g., South Korea's protests against authoritarianism and the recent loss of the Law and Justice party in Poland.
  • Takeaways for the Future:
    • There is hope for democratic resilience, but engagement and awareness are critical in facing authoritarian challenges.
  • Key Recommendations:
    • Emphasizing strong democratic norms and institutions.
    • Recognizing early signs of democratic erosion to act before drastic measures are required.