Reputation versus Prioritization Trade-Off
Extended Deterrence
Extended deterrence aims to prevent an attack against a state other than the deterrer.
Protégés' perceptions of the credibility of US extended deterrence guarantees are related to the reputation versus prioritization trade-off.
Protégés value being prioritized by the patron more than the patron’s reliability in a distant region under certain conditions.
Reputation vs. Prioritization Trade-Off
Protégés in distant regions see complementary reputational links between the credibility of a patron’s extended deterrence commitments.
There is a competitive relationship when allocating the patron’s resources.
Whether protégés prioritize reputation or prioritization depends on their perceptions of their regional security environment.
This is determined by their perception of their patron’s resource constraints and the threat posed by an adversary.
Failure to manage allied perceptions of this trade-off can lead to ineffective assurance and incentivize allies to seek options outside the alliance.
Hypotheses
H1: Tighter constraints on the patron’s resources lead the protégé to perceive commitments in other regions negatively, prioritizing the patron's prioritization over reputation.
H2: Increased threat perception by the protégé leads to a negative perception of the patron’s commitments in other regions, prioritizing the patron's prioritization over reputation.
Japan's Perceptions of US Security Commitment in Europe
In the early 2000s, Japan did not worry about constraints on US military resources.
After the global financial crisis, Japanese policymakers worried about the negative impact of resource constraints on Washington’s ability to deter adversaries.
The limitation of US resources made Japan less welcoming to US security commitments in Europe.
Aftermath of the Russian annexation of Crimea concerned Japan, but the limited scale of US re-engagement in Europe alleviated Japanese concerns over US prioritization.
Poland’s Perceptions of US Security Commitment in Asia
Poland's announcement of a US rebalance to Asia incentivized Polish leaders and security experts to devote more time to understanding the security situation in East Asia.
US extended deterrence commitments in Asia grew in interest in Polish strategic circles.
Russia’s annexation of Crimea raised the Polish public’s threat perception to a record-high level.