The Rise and Fall of Great-Power Competition: Trump's New Spheres of Influence - Study Notes

Author: Stacie E. Goddard
Published in: Foreign Affairs, May/June 2025
Focus: Explores how U.S. strategy regarding great-power competition has changed, particularly under President Donald Trump's administration.

Initial Departure: The concept of great-power competition was largely dismissed following the Cold War, prioritizing cooperation among global powers.
Return of Competition: A shift occurred in the mid-2010s, emphasizing competition primarily with China and Russia as key rivals.

Trump’s National Security Strategy (2017): Marked the explicit return to great-power competition, emphasizing that U.S. rivals were actively contesting geopolitical advantages.
Main Objective: The primary goal became to maintain superiority over major rivals as articulated in the National Defense Strategy.
Biden's Strategy (2021): Continued prioritization of great-power competition, with a focus on constraining China and Russia, presenting them as authoritarian challenges to democratic governance.

Shift in Approach (2025): Upon Trump's return to the presidency, there was a notable pivot from competition to collaboration, particularly with Russia and China.
- Examples of this Pivot:
- Desire for a swift end to the war in Ukraine, potentially at the expense of Ukraine's position.
- Plans for negotiation with Xi Jinping to discuss terms of trade and international security.
- Economic Pressure on Allies: Increased threats against U.S. allies in Europe, Canada, and indications of expansionist ambitions (e.g., Greenland, Panama Canal).

Great-Power Collusion Argument: Observers interpret Trump’s actions as potential collusion among great powers rather than competitive stances.
Collaboration Tradition: Trump's approach mirrors historical precedents, particularly the Concert of Europe, which aimed to maintain peace through cooperation and recognition among great powers.
New Order Concept: A blended approach where great powers work together, potentially diminishing the role of smaller nations in international politics.

Elastic Definition: The term “great-power competition” has been criticized for lacking a coherent strategy, often more a narrative than a tactical framework.
Past Strategies vs. Current Narrative: Strategies in the Cold War context were focused (contain Soviet expansion), whereas contemporary definitions lack specific metrics or objectives.
- Illustration: Trump’s threats regarding NATO spending demonstrate competition, but so do Biden’s strategies of reinvestment in NATO alliances.

The Central Narrative: The United States is portrayed as a leading power, sometimes as a victim of its rivals (Beijing and Moscow), depicted as antagonists against American interests.
Global Events Interpretation: Actions and conflicts (e.g., Russian aggression, Chinese military actions) have been framed within the competition narrative, fueling perceptions of an aggressive international order.
Technological and Economic Competition: Technology and foreign aid viewed as instruments in the power struggle; critical infrastructures (like 5G) and aid seen in the context of influence and dominance.

Definition and Origins: The Concert of Europe was formed post-Napoleon to manage European stability through collaboration. Powers resolved conflicts collectively rather than through war.
Implementation: Included norms about territorial integrity, intervention rules, and collective maintenance of peace.
Challenges: Conflict ultimately arose from the inability to reconcile interests among powers.
- Example: Territorial disputes in Europe and colonial competitions in Africa led to the dissolution of the concert's effectiveness.

Transactional vs. Collaborative Approach: Trump's method involves deal-making rather than the traditional collaboration seen in historical contexts.
- Current Dynamics: Trump’s narrative suggests a vision of joint interests with Russia and China rather than mere opposition.
Challenges of a Concert System:
- International issues (pandemics, climate change, etc.) transcend borders, complicating the division of spheres of influence.

End of Great-Power Concert: The historical pattern suggests that collaborations among great powers can break down, leading to wars and instability when tensions surface.
Public Perception and Political Costs: Trump's foreign policy has faced backlash domestically; polls reflect disapproval despite his revised strategy.
Long-Term Stability: Speculation on how current strategies will influence future geopolitical stability, emphasizing that collaboration may not sufficient counter ideological differences or smaller power dynamics.

Lessons from History: The potential for a concert to maintain peace is tempered by ideological divisions and historical lessons from the Concert of Europe.
Need for Collaboration: Moving towards a genuine collaborative framework is posited as a means to mitigate conflict in a multipolar world, suggesting that true peace requires convergence on broad shared interests rather than mere pragmatic collusion among rivals.