Does Proportional Representation Foster Voter Turnout?

Authors: André Blais and R.K. Carty
Institution affiliations:
- Université de Montréal, Canada
- University of British Columbia, Canada
Published in: European Journal of Political Research, 1990
Paper focus: Relationship between electoral formulae and voter turnout in western democracies.

Examination of 509 national elections across 20 countries.
Regression analysis indicates higher voter turnout in proportional representation (PR) systems.
Notable increase in electoral turnout observed over the last century.

Scholars (Lakeman, 1974; Powell, 1980) suggest PR increases voter participation.
Three arguments for why PR may enhance turnout:
1. Reduced Distortion of Votes to Seats:
- PR minimizes discrepancies between votes received and seats won.
- Voters feel more efficacious and less alienated, especially those supporting smaller, less advantaged parties.
1. Multi-Member Districts:
- Multi-member districts reduce non-competitive districts, encouraging broader campaigning and voting incentives.
1. Increased Variety of Choices:
- More political parties increase choices for voters, leading to higher turnout.
Counter-arguments:
- Simplicity and decisiveness of plurality systems may encourage participation (Powell, 1980).
- Plurality systems can lead to one-party majority governments, enhancing transparency and perceived legitimacy (Downs, 1957; Jackman, 1987).

Importance of empirical research to clarify the influence of electoral systems.
Previous findings (Jackman, 1987) suggest institutional arrangements drive turnout, particularly competitive districts and compulsory voting.
Limitations of earlier studies:
- Lack of clear distinction between formal institutions and impact variables.
- Confusion between electoral formulae and district magnitude effects.
- Limited data set, focusing mostly on elections from the 1960s and 1970s.

Aiming to test the arguments regarding electoral systems and turnout rates, the study focuses on three electoral formulae:
1. Proportional Representation (PR)
2. Plurality Systems
3. Majority Systems
Data set includes 509 elections from a range of western industrial democracies.
Excluded:
- Countries with interrupted electoral histories (Greece, Portugal, Spain) and the United States, due to non-parliamentary structure.
Studied elections primarily from the lower house where the majority of seats were contested.
Data sources: Mackie and Rose's International Almanac of Electoral History (1982), updated until 1985.
Considers electoral history from the earliest contested elections, starting from Belgium in 1847.

Variables examined:
- Dependent Variable: Voter turnout (% of total votes cast out of electorate).
- Independent Variable: Type of electoral formula (plurality, majority, PR).
Control Variables:
1. Constituency structure (single vs. multi-member districts).
2. Institutional variables affecting participation.
3. Time and country-specific effects.

Electoral Systems Include:
- Ballot form
- Constituency structure
- Electoral formulae (Rae, 1967)
District Magnitude:
- Affects vote-seat relationship, impacts turnout rates.
Compulsory Voting:
- Increases turnout rates significantly (Jackman, 1987).
Unicameralism and Federalism:
- Unicameral decision-making may enhance decisiveness, affecting turnout.
- Federal systems may have reduced turnout due to divided authority.
Suffrage Dynamics:
- Male and female suffrage examined.
- Universal male suffrage may decrease participant quality, impacting turnout.
- Female suffrage often associated with lower turnout due to documented participation disparities.
Legislative Assembly Size:
- Correlates with country population size, influencing perceived community.

Collected data indicates:
Average Turnout: 78% across analyzed elections.
Temporal Trends:
- Turnout increased from approximately 70% prior to WWI to nearly 84% in more recent periods.
Inter-country Variability:
- Highest turnout rates in Luxembourg and lowest in Switzerland.

PR systems yield a turnaround approximately ten percentage points higher than plurality and majority systems.
Significant regression results indicating turnout is lower in plurality (7% lower) and majority systems (5% lower) than in PR systems.
Most control variables have little to no observed effect on turnout, except for:
- Compulsory Voting: Increases turnout significantly.
- Size of Legislature: Smaller assemblies correlate with increased turnout rates.
- Political Contexts: Different responses in distinct countries (e.g., low participation in Switzerland due to demobilization strategies).

Competitiveness in elections could influence turnout, though weak empirical support observed.
Disproportionality may not significantly hinder turnout levels, contrary to previous conclusions.
More political parties may reduce turnout due to complexities in coalition governments.

Supporting the notion that PR systems enhance voter turnout considerably when compared to plurality and majority systems.
Factors driving increased turnout under PR do not operate as predicted by supporters of PR, suggesting a need for further investigation into the root causes.
Symbolic Effects: Importance may lie in voters’ perceptions of procedural fairness rather than statistical outcomes.
Strong evidence that electoral systems directly influence turnout rather than indirectly through other variables.

Extensive list of references underpinning the arguments in the paper, indicating a broad survey of electoral studies.
Key authors include Blais, Carty, Jackman, Powell, among others, emphasizing the foundational work in electoral studies.

Note on the exclusion of the USA and implications of differing electoral experiences.
Mention of data selection criteria to ensure credibility and relevance of findings.
Acknowledgement of the potential impact of historical context in electoral participation.