The People's Republic of China (1949-Now)

The People's Republic of China (1949-Now)

• Can the past be erased? Can a state indoctrinate citizens to the point of frenzy?

• What caused the largest man-made famine in human history?

• What happened on June 4th, 1989, and why does it matter?

• How did China experience 300 years of growth in just 30?

• Will the Cold War 2.0 remain "cold"?

• Who is Xi Jinping? Is he the most powerful man on the planet?

• Will China invade Taiwan? How would the world respond?

• How should we evaluate the AI arms race?

Key Topics

• Great Leap Forward

• Cultural Revolution

• Diplomatic Opening of China

• Economic Opening of China

• Repression (Tiananmen, etc.)

• US Foreign Policy Towards China

• The Return of Hong Kong

• Xi Jinping

Anatomy of a State: The People’s Republic of China

• 1. 4 Billion Humans

• 2nd Largest Economy

• 92% Ethnically Han Chinese

• Largest trading partner to most of the world

• 2nd Largest Military

• Nuclear State

• Member of the UN Security Council

Key Characteristics: The People’s Republic of China

• Political: Dictatorship of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) led by Xi Jinping (No elections, 91 million CCP members, censorship, repression)

• Economic: Communism (1949-1978), State-Directed Capitalism (1978-now)

• Ideological: Nationalistic

  • To the Chinese, the 1840s-1940s was the "CENTURY OF HUMILIATION" in which foreign powers abused and weakened China, so China must defend, expand, grow and strengthen until it is the unchallenged great power on the global stage.

The Rise of the CCP

• Last Dynasty had collapsed in 1912

• Chaos and Political Uncertainty followed and led to a CIVIL WAR

• Communists vs. Nationalists (1928-1949 timeout during WWII)

• WWII ends and the world leaves China alone

The Victory of the CCP – Creating the PRC and ROC

• PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (communist, mainland)

• Republic of China (nationalist, flees to Taiwan)

• BOTH claim to be the REAL CHINA

The Early Years of the PRC (1949-1955)

• MAO TSETUNG had led the Communist Party since 1921. Becomes the totalitarian leader of the country (rules from 1949 until his death in 1976)

• PRC IS EXTREMELY EXTREMELY POOR

• PRC IS AGRARIAN/RURAL SOCIETY (NO INDUSTRY)

• MAINLAND CHINA HAS BEEN A WARZONE FOR ALMOST 25 YEARS

Maoism Begins in China (1949-1955)

• CCP begins to solidify political control through repression, imprisonment, censorship, and indoctrination/cult of personality about Mao (classic authoritarian/revolutionary model)

• Soviet friendship and support, but most countries decide to follow the US and the UN’s lack of recognition (belief that the Nationalists would eventually return)

• Internationally isolated (few embassies, almost no trade, no foreign press could enter the country, no UN membership)

How Does the CCP Establish Total Control of China? (1949-1957)

• RUTHLESSNESS

• ORGANIZATION

• ISOLATION

• PRIVILEGE and PAIN

• TIME

Maoism

• “It is better that half the population starves so the other half can eat.”

• “Hard work for a few years, happiness for a thousand.”

• “You can’t make an omelet without breaking a few eggs”

• IDEOLOGY AND POWER ABOVE HUMAN SUFFERING

Totalitarian China

The CCP is now in total control of education, press, weapons, movement, and LIVES of the Chinese

Great Leap Forward (1958-1960)

• Mao’s plan to make agrarian China into an industrial superpower

• Based on the collectivization and industrialization model of Stalin’s Five-Year Plans

The Great Leap Forward: A Political and Humanitarian Catastrophe (1958-1962)

Goals and Problems

• Countryside would fund the industrialization process…

• Abolition of private property: Land, tools, and livestock were owned collectively.

• Communal living: Shared kitchens, nurseries, and dormitories. (20k per Commune)

• Centralized planning: Work and food distribution were managed by commune leaders.

• PROBLEMS

  • Lack of incentives: Farmers had no personal stake in productivity.

  • Poor management: Local leaders often lacked agricultural knowledge.

  • Over-reporting: Inflated production figures led to excessive grain requisitioning.

Causes of the Famine

• CCP managers would over-report grain production, and this led to excessive grain requisitioning by the state (to export or to feed the urban workers)

• Ineptitude (transportation issues led to food rotting, mismanagement, crazy ideas..killing all sparrows, which led to pests, etc)

• Lack of Expertise – Experienced farmers had been killed in the purges and Anti-Rightist campaign as Mao solidified power

• Floods and Droughts

The Great Chinese Famine (1959–1961)

• Estimated 15 to 45 million deaths — one of the deadliest famines in history.

• Starvation, disease, and social breakdown were widespread.

• Citizens could not travel or escape.

• No press on the issue.

Human Impact

• Families were torn apart; many resorted to desperate measures to survive (cannibalism and cruelty)

• Rural areas were hit hardest.

• Psychological trauma and population decline had long-term effects.

CCP’s Role and Responsibility

• MAO REFUSED TO CHANGE COURSE OR LISTEN TO CRITICISM

• FEAR HAD CREATED A CULTURE OF “YES MEN” UNWILLING OR UNABLE TO CHANGE POLICY DESPITE ALL EVIDENCE OF IMPENDING DISASTER

Domestic and International Reactions?

• Internally: The CCP initially blamed natural disasters.

• Internationally: VERY limited awareness due to China’s closed-off stance on international relations and no free press.

• Eventually, Mao stepped back from direct governance in the early 1960s…but he will be back soon.

Blame is a Powerful Idea When People are Suffering…

The CCP begins to blame the citizens for the failures of the GLF (industrialization and economic goals are not met) as it is due to their lack of “revolutionary zeal”

Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution

• Widespread Violence and Disorder

• Considered "The Lost Decade" (1966-1976)

Cultural Revolution

• Mao’s image was everywhere — posters, badges, and the Little Red Book.

• Criticism of Mao was considered treason

• The revolution became more about loyalty to Mao than actual reform

Enacting the Great Proletarian Chinese Cultural Revolution (1966-1976)

1. Eliminate “Four Olds”: old customs, culture, habits, and ideas.

2. Purge “counter-revolutionaries” and capitalist elements.

3. Empower the youth to lead the revolution Create the Red Guards.

4. Reinforce Maoist ideology as the guiding force of China.

Eradicate the "Four Olds"

Old Thought, Customs, Culture, Habits

Role of the Red Guards

• Mostly students and young people loyal to Mao.

• Tasked with attacking intellectuals, officials, and perceived enemies.

• Destroyed cultural artifacts, temples, and historical sites.

• Often acted violently and without restraint.

Tabula Rasa – A Generation That is a "Blank Slate"

• No memory of life before the CCP

• Educated by the CCP

• Early life of suffering makes them more susceptible to messages of hate and incitement of violence

• It is alarmingly easy to weaponize the youth against society itself

• The young tend to be full of conviction and certainty

• They do not have a point of comparison

• Their anger and frustration with scarcity will be channeled by the CCP into atrocities and violence

Struggle Sessions

Denunciation rallies or struggle meetings were violent public spectacles in Maoist China where people accused of being “class enemies” were publicly humiliated, accused, beaten, and tortured, sometimes by people with whom they were close.

Attacks on Intellectuals and Education

• Teachers, scholars, and scientists were publicly humiliated and persecuted.

• Schools and universities were shut down for years.

• “Re-education” through manual labor in the countryside became common.

What Happens to a Society When Loyalty is More Important Than Merit or Expertise?

• Industrial and agricultural production declined.

• Millions were displaced or sent to rural areas.

• Families were torn apart by accusations and political campaigns.

• MORE SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL TURMOIL IN CHINA…

Political Purges

• High-ranking officials like Deng Xiaoping (future leader) and Xi Jinping’s father were removed and persecuted.

• Internal CCP power struggles intensified.

• Loyalty to Mao became the primary qualification for leadership.

Consequences of the Cultural Revolution

• Roughly 2 million are executed

• Roughly 3 million are “purged” from the CCP

• 125 million subjected to struggle sessions

• A generation of children with an educational gap

• Instability and Economic Decline

• The CCP later declared the Cultural Revolution a “serious mistake.” Privately understood as the "lost decade"

• Modern China remains cautious about discussing this period openly

End of the Cultural Revolution

• Mao’s death in 1976 marked the end of the movement.

• The Gang of Four, including Mao’s wife Jiang Qing, were arrested.

• Deng Xiaoping returned to power and began economic reforms.

China's Diplomatic and Economic Opening (1971-1989)

Key Events and Themes

China is Closed (1949-1971)

• Hostile and nonexistent relationship with the US

• Almost no international travel (few visitors or for its citizens)

• Very little diplomacy

• Not recognized as the government of China for the UN Security Council seat

• Very little involvement in international trade (Maoist self-reliance)

• Very little international press

US Policy: 1949-1971 Tolerating Isolation

• Belief that eventually a counter-revolution would overthrow the Chinese Communist Party

• Invasion was not an option (expense, size, other international issues)

• Defense of ROC (Taiwan)

ROC vs. PRC

• Republic of China had the UN seat since 1945

• Republic of China claimed itself as the “real China” and that eventually, it would all be unified

• 20+ years later and still waiting….

How Did the Relationship Begin?

Ping Pong Diplomacy (1971)

1971 – UN Recognition

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) replaces Taiwan in the United Nations

• Gains a permanent seat on the Security Council

• Marks the beginning of China’s re-entry into the international community

1972 – Nixon Visits China

• U.S. President Richard Nixon visits Beijing, meeting Mao Zedong and Premier Zhou Enlai

• Total surprise to the world, after 25 years of isolation on behalf of the US

• February 21-28, 1972

Meetings on Building Economic, Cultural, and Diplomatic Ties Results in the Shanghai Communiqué

Shanghai Communiqué

• "Agree to disagree" -- Vietnam, Taiwan

• Seek to normalize relations (mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, non-hegemony in Asia)

• Create economic relationships (trade and student exchanges)

• There is ONE CHINA and Taiwan is a part of it

What Does This Accomplish?

• Detente vibes

• But also isolates the USSR (leverage, geopolitics)

• Complicates the situation for Taiwan

• Demonstrates realpolitik (strategic interests over ideological divides)

1979 – US-China Diplomatic Relations Established

• The U.S. and China FORMALLY establish relations.

• The US ends official recognition of Taiwan, though informal ties remain strong

Six Assurances – 1982

• “acknowledges the Chinese position that there is one China and Taiwan is part of China” and that the PRC is the “sole legal government of China” (some U.S. officials have emphasized that the use of the word “acknowledge” implies that the United States doesn’t necessarily accept the Chinese position)

• US rejects any use of force to settle the dispute

• US maintains cultural, commercial, and other ties with Taiwan, carried out through the American Institute in Taiwan

• US commits to selling arms to Taiwan for self-defense

• US will maintain the ability to come to Taiwan’s defense, while not actually committing to doing so — a policy known as strategic ambiguity.

Maoism Ends and the Economic Opening of China Begins

The Economic Opening of China (1978-1989)

• Confusing post-Mao power struggle, but ultimately Deng Xiaoping – “The General Architect” will be the leader of China until 1989

• “Black cat, white cat, what does it matter so long as it catches mice”

• “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics”

1978 – Four Modernizations Begin

• Launches the “Reform and Opening-Up” policy

• Focuses on modernizing agriculture, industry, defense, and science/technology

• Encourages foreign investment, special economic zones (SEZs), and market-oriented reforms.

"300 Years of Economic Growth in 30"

How Did China Grow So Fast?

Special Economic Zones: Designated areas within a country where economic policies are more liberal than in the rest of the country. These zones are designed to attract foreign investment, boost exports, and accelerate industrialization.

SEZ's are Here

Key Features of SEZs

• Tax incentives for foreign companies.

• Flexible labor laws and simplified customs procedures.

• Infrastructure investment to support manufacturing and trade.

• Autonomy in economic policymaking at the local level.

Goals:

• Experiment with market-oriented reforms in a controlled environment.

• Attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and advanced technology.

• Create jobs, boost exports, and stimulate economic growth.

Asian Tigers Step Up

• South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong, and JAPAN had massive industrial growth in the 1960s and 1970s

• EXPORT-LED Growth Model

• They manufactured light goods (toys, clothing, furniture, small appliances) but are now ready to outsource…

• China is nearby and is CHEAP (very low wages + gov't willing to facilitate everything)

Chinese Growth in Light Industry (1990's-2000's)

• FDI from Asian Tigers brings know-how

• Corporations are required to partner with local companies

• MADE IN CHINA era begins

Stability can be a good thing?

• INDUSTRIAL POLICY OF EMPHASIZING GROWTH

• EDUCATION

• INFRASTRUCTURE

• CONSISTENCY

• MORE FDI

• WORK ETHIC (9-9-6)

• TIME

December 2001 – Joining the World Trade Organization

• More FDI beyond Asian Tigers

• US enters the picture

• Boom Continues

• Car parts and other larger electronics are built in China (Honda, Hyndai, Nissan, Samsung, etc)

Light to Heavy Industry

• SEZs transition to HEAVY industry (microwaves become TVs, cars)

• Still require EVERY international company to partner with a local subsidiary

• China is still export-oriented

• Light industry focuses on the domestic market

• Beginning of a middle class

• Invest and build real estate for my new middle class

RESULT: (Goods are cheaper, China is wealthier, China begins to buy)

Heavy to Most Sophisticated

• SEZs transition to HEAVIEST industry most sophisticated (smartphones, EVs, semiconductors)

• Chinese citizens are rich enough to become heavy industry consumers

• Chinese companies are ready to go it alone (begin to remove and begin to COMPETE internationally)

A Miracle Has Externalities

• No environmental regulation

• No concern for human rights/abusive working conditions

• Less concern with quality

• Intellectual Property theft

• Lack of instability because dictatorship..

• The whole world was happy to outsource manufacturing and get things more cheaply….

China Did Not Have the Know-How, Money, or Expertise to do All of This Alone…

Factors Contributing to China’s Growth

• Foreign Companies

• Exchange Programs

• Expats, Executives

• The Fall of Other Communist Regimes

• Ideas….

China's One-Child Policy (1979-2015)

Overview, Implementation, and Consequences

Demographic Transition

The five stages of the demographic transition : a model that describes why rapid population growth is a temporary phenomenon.

Population control under the CCP

Total Fertility Rate

• Later, Longer, Fewer

• One Child Policy

Demographic Trends in China

• Population growth rate has slowed significantly.

• Increasing proportion of elderly population.

• Challenges related to workforce and economic sustainability in the future.

• Massive decline in population post-2050

• Currently there is a three-child policy and the Chinese are incentivized to have MORE kids…

Later, Longer, Fewer Campaign

• The 'Later, Longer, Fewer' campaign was a precursor to the One-Child Policy.

• Encouraged later marriages, longer intervals between births, and fewer children.

• Aimed at controlling population growth and improving economic conditions.

Policy Rollout

• The One-Child Policy was officially implemented in 1979/1980.

• Initially targeted urban areas, later expanded to rural regions

• Included incentives for compliance and penalties for violations

Implementation

• Implementation involved strict monitoring and enforcement.

• Local officials were responsible for ensuring compliance.

• Included forced abortions and sterilizations in some cases.

Social and Economic Impacts

• Reduced population growth and alleviated economic pressures.

• Led to gender imbalance and aging population.

• Affected family structures and individual freedoms.

Opening a Window

1978-1989 Opening a window to get the benefits of a breeze… also leads to flies

China Did Not Have the Know-How, Money, or Expertise to do All of This Alone…

Factors Contributing to China’s Growth

• Foreign Companies

• Exchange Programs

• Expats, Executives

• The Fall of Other Communist Regimes

• Ideas….

The Ideas Have Spread.. The Ideas Turn into a Movement

Will China Follow Europe's Path?

1978-1989: Will China follow Europe's path (USSR letting Eastern Bloc free, weakness of USSR in general)

Protests Begin in April 1989

• Students are encouraged by the belief that economic transformation would be followed by political openness

• Students are encouraged by USSR glasnost

• Calling for democracy and rights (press, expression, etc)

• NOT calls for revolution, but for a beginning of a transition

June 4, 1989: Tiananmen Square Massacre

Tiananmen Square Massacre

• Months of protests are shut down VIOLENTLY June 4th, 1989

• Signals that there will be no “fifth modernization”

• Marks a defining moment in how the CCP will function to this day

• Chinese cannot investigate or learn about this moment

What Happens Next?

How do you stop another Tiananmen Square from building?

Repression Intensifies

• Isolationism is not an option.

• Propaganda: Democracy is bad for economic progress

• Censorship: No local coverage of the massacre

• Repression: Increase size of police force, jail time, concentration camps, and disappearance of citizens that call for democracy

Take Credit For Economic Boom

CCP aggressively campaigns that the exponential improvement in citizens’ lives is because of their good governance. WHY would you disagree?

Will the Advent of the Internet in the 2000’s Finally Break the CCP’s Censorship and Propaganda?

The Internet and Technology Do Not Bring Political Liberalization to China

The Great Firewall of China

• Mass surveillance (facial recognition, cameras)

• Mass censorship online (firewall on any apps, constant surveillance of search terms and communication)

• No anonymity (national ID to use any platform)

• Sophisticated and subtle indoctrination

Hong Kong: Special Administrative Region

What is HK?

• 422 square miles

• Hong Kong Island

• Kowloon Peninsular

• New Territories

• Outlying islands

• 7. 5 million residents

• 95% Chinese, predominantly speak Cantonese

Key Background

• Remember the “carving up of China”?

• HK Island was occupied by UK in 1841; New Territories on 99-year lease in 1898

• Essentially a colony of the UK (1841-1997)

• Democracy, Political Freedoms, Civil Rights

• Economic Powerhouse → One of the four “Asian Tigers” (HK, Singapore, SK, Taiwan)

What Will Happen in 1997?

• Discussions begin in the early 1980s

• China wants total control

• UK wants preservation of rights

• Questions and dilemmas..

• Do Hongkongers deserve a referendum?

• Will the UK disavow the lease?

• Is there a middle path or transition?

• What would happen to civil liberties? What would happen to the education system? What would happen to HK’s democracy?

Compromise, Apparently

• PRC & UK Joint Declaration in 1984

• HK Leaders and Margaret Thatcher agree that HK will be turned over in 1997

• Special Administrative Region (1997-2047)

• 50 years of preservation of rights

• Brits believed that by that time, China will have democratized/chosen political liberalization (oops)

The Handover

• Adopted Basic Law of HKSAR in Beijing in 1990

• Became Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of PRC in July 1, 1997

• “ONE COUNTRY, TWO SYSTEMS”

One Country, Two Systems

• Legal system (British common law)

• Free-market Capitalism

• Civil Liberties

• Independent Education System

• Free Elections

• Run by the people of HK

• Free Press

Time Passes

• 1989 Crackdown

• PRC Economic Miracle really gets going (2000-2010)

• Political liberalization doesn't seem around the corner

Will the PRC keep waiting to fully govern HK until 2047?

In 2014, the CCP Begins to Encroach on Basic Law

PRC begins to influence/require approval of candidates for the Chief Executive position

Umbrella Movement Response

• June 2014

• Widespread protests as Hongkongers believe this is a violation of sovereignty and "one China, two Systems"

• Hongkongers create a protest movement rooted in the use of umbrellas against tear gas and hosing

Extradition Protests

• June 2019

• Massive protests against law that allowed HK residents to be extradited to mainland China

Hong Kong is Divided. Some view the protests as pointless chaos. Others view it is as an essential struggle for their civil liberties

National Security Law

• National Security Law (June 30, 2020) expands criminalization of protests as terrorism

• Any mention of secession = (breaking away from China) is now banned and criminalized

• Any mention of subversion = (criticizing CCP) is now banned and criminalized

• Applies to activities by foreign forces/citizens that interfere in Hong Kong (be careful)

The Impact of the National Security Law

• The law is Added to Annex III (HK approval and vote was not needed)

• Reaction to the law?

  • Pro-establishment → this is stability (we have to give up)

  • Pro-democracy/Anti-PRC → this is the death knell of HK (we have to move)

The Exodus Begins

• UK creates a special Visa/Immigration policy for the people of Hong Kong

• BNO Visa (British National Overseas) grants the right to work, live and study in the UK

• Roughly 100k leave in the first year alone…

US Foreign Policy Towards China

• Isolationism (1949-1972)

• Engagement (1970’s-2010’s)

• Competition (2015-now, New Cold War, Trade War)

US Policy of Engagement (1978-2015)

1. US believes that if China is integrated into the world (politically and then later economically) then the “power of our ideas” will bring about a “peaceful evolution” in China

2. US benefits – first from using China as a factory, then from the size of the Chinese market (as it becomes middle-income)

3. US becomes distracted by the Middle East

US Policy Now

• COMPETE (Trade war is going on AND the US no longer wants all manufacturing to be done in China.. semiconductors, batteries, REEs)

• CONFRONT (US will no longer turn a blind eye to human rights violations, Taiwan, South China Seas AND work to strengthen alliances and the QUAD, mistrust in Cyber)

• COOPERATE (Climate)

China Under Xi Jinping (2012-Now)

Key Policies and Vision

Background on Xi Jinping

• Xi’s father a revolutionary alongside Mao but was purged in the Cultural Revolution

• Lived in abject poverty for a time (cave tourist site)

• Failed to join the CCP more than a dozen times

• Rose up the ranks of the CCP by governing distant provinces effectively

Career Milestones

• Became General Secretary of the CCP in 2012 (real source of power – party and state institutions are separate)

• Head of State and Head of the PLA President of China since 2013

• Deng had moved the CCP to more "consensus rule" by a set of indistinguishable party leaders

• Xi has broken precedent by establishing himself as a "strongman ruler" and staying on as General Secretary for more than two 5-year terms

Domestic Policies

Consolidation of PERSONAL and CCP power:

• Promote loyalists, oust rivals

• Anti-corruption campaign against "tigers" and "flies" (4 million members were affected)

• Remain in power beyond the norm of retirement at 68 (he is 71)

Xi Jinping Thought:

• "It is necessary to adhere to the leadership of the party over all work. Among the party, the government, the military, the people, the academia, and all circles, the party leads all." (2017, National Party Congress)

Domestic Policies

• Generalized surveillance, censorship, and repression (Great Chinese Firewall, extrajudicial detentions)

• Reeducation of the Uyghurs (ethnic cleansing or worse)

Foreign Policy Overview

• More aggressive and assertive on the global political and economic stage (Belt and Road Initiative, HK, Taiwan, South China Seas)

• Not just end the "century of humiliation" returning to the era of the Middle Kingdom as we approach the 100-year anniversary of the People's Republic of China

• Is this the beginning of the Chinese Century? Has it already started?

Foreign Policies: Belt and Road Initiative

• Program focused on reorienting global trade to center around China

• Large infrastructure investments in creating a network of Energy, Trains, Pipelines, Shipping, Deep Water Ports

Debt Trap Diplomacy?

• China offers loans to poor countries (could be viewed as predatory)

• In many cases these countries cannot afford to pay for the megaprojects that China offers to finance

• China then has leverage (think of it as power) over the poorer country

• In some cases the project is confiscated

More Assertive/Aggressive Stance on Hong Kong

• Chief Executive Influence/Umbrella Movement (2014)

• Extradition Amendment and Protests (2019)

• National Security Law (2020)

Xi's Next Move? Taiwan?

What is Taiwan?

• 90 miles from Mainland China

• 24 million inhabitants

• Han Chinese (Nationalists) that retreated in 1949

• The last refuge of the former ROC (Republic of China)

Recent Background

• PRC asserts the ONE CHINA PRINCIPLE and demands unification

• Only 11 countries recognize Taiwan as a state (10 dropped it from 2016-2024)

Current Situation

• Xi Jinping increasingly speaks of reunification

• PRC might want to invade soon/now before their population ages

• PRC might want to distract from their internal problems (slower economic growth, real estate crisis, rising unemployment) by going off to war (RALLY ROUND THE FLAG)

• PRC has recently done live fire exercises within Taiwanese waters, increased assertive rhetoric, and limited their trade relationship with Taiwan

What Are US-Taiwan Relations?

• The US recognized Taiwan as the government of China for YEARS (remember that the PRC was ISOLATED in this period)

• The US “normalized relations” with the PRC (mainland China in 1972)

• The Shanghai Communique stipulated that there was ONE CHINA and TAIWAN is a part of that (ambiguous)

• The US stopped recognizing Taiwan as a country in 1979, but maintains unofficial ties and sells weapons and defense systems to Taiwan

• As the PRC has gotten stronger, it continues to stress reunification with Taiwan

Six Assurances – 1982

• “acknowledges the Chinese position that there is one China and Taiwan is part of China” and that the PRC is the “sole legal government of China” (some U.S. officials have emphasized that the use of the word “acknowledge” implies that the United States doesn’t necessarily accept the Chinese position)

• US rejects any use of force to settle the dispute

• US maintains cultural, commercial, and other ties with Taiwan, carried out through the American Institute in Taiwan

• US commits to selling arms to Taiwan for self-defense

• US will maintain the ability to come to Taiwan’s defense, while not actually committing to doing so — a policy known as strategic ambiguity.

Why Taiwan Matters to the US..

• CENTERPIECE OF FIRST ISLAND CHAIN OF DEFENSE that is meant to encircle/surround China

Looking Forward

Domestic:

• Will the CCP become more repressive? Will its citizens accept it?

• Will Xi be able to remain in power indefinitely?

• How will China’s economy deal with demographic transition?

International:

• Will China invade Taiwan?

• Will China achieve the restructuring of the global political and economic order?

Read Further

Xi Jinping Thought or the Uyghurs