Global Demography and Migration Notes

Global Demography

• Demographic Transition: A historical period where mortality and fertility rates decline from high to low levels in a country or region.

  • The transition's broad outlines are similar globally, but the pace and timing vary.
  • Started in Europe in the mid- to late 1700s with declining death rates and fertility.
  • High to low fertility took 200 years in France and 100 years in the United States.
  • Mortality decline in Africa and Asia (except Japan) occurred in the twentieth century.
  • Life expectancy in India was 24 years in the early twentieth century (Maddison, 2001).
  • China had similar life expectancy around 1929-1931.
  • Fertility decline in Asia began in the 1950s.
  • Japan's total fertility rate remained above five births per woman until the 1930s (Shigeyuki et al., 2002).

• Impact of Demographic Transition:

  • Rapid population growth after World War II affected the age structure of Asia and the developing world.
  • Baby boom in the developing world was due to the decline in infant and child mortality rates.
  • The West's baby boom resulted from rising birth rates.
  • Shigeyuki et al. (2002) noted the life expectancy gap between Japan/the West and the rest of the world.
  • In 1820, life expectancy in Japan and the West was 12 years greater than in other countries; by 1900, it increased to 20 years.
  • In 1900-1950, the gap reached 22 years but declined to 14 years by 1999.

• Global Population Shares:

  • During the nineteenth century, Europe and the West increased their share of the world's population from 22.0% to 33.0%.
  • Asia and Oceania's contribution dropped from 69.0% to 56.7% due to economic stagnation and decline in India and China.
  • In the twentieth century, Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Oceania had high population growth rates.
  • Between 1820 and 1980, 69.3% of global population growth occurred in Europe and Western offshoots; between 1950 and 2000, only 11.7% occurred in that region (Shigeyuki et al., 2002).

• Future Projections:

  • The United Nations projects that population growth will shift toward Africa.
  • By 2150, Africa's share of the world population will be nearly 20%, up from 7% in 1820 and 6% in 1900.
  • By 2150, Asia, Latin America, and Oceania are projected to increase by two billion.

• Age Structure and Dependency Ratios:

  • Japan and the West showed a downward trend in dependency ratios until 1950, close to 0.5.
  • A temporary increase occurred after the post-World War II baby boom.
  • Japan's dependency ratio was higher than the West's between 1920 and the early 1950s, then dropped due to a decline in childbearing in the 1950s and low fertility rates.
  • Developing countries like India and the Philippines had higher dependency ratios than the West in 1900.
  • A significant increase in dependency ratio was caused by declining infant and child mortality and high fertility, peaking around 1970.

• Trends in Dependency Ratios:

  • Dependency ratios started declining due to a global birth rate decline.
  • The fertility gap between the West and less developed countries narrowed by the twenty-first century.
  • Over the next 50 years, dependency ratios between these regions are expected to reverse, with aging populations causing a rise in dependency ratios in the West (Shigeyuki et al., 2002).

Global Migration

• Categories of Migrants:

  • Vagabonds: People who move because they have to, seeking better circumstances (Bauman, 1998; Ritzer, 2015).
  • Tourists: People who move because they want to and can afford it (Bauman, 1998; Ritzer, 2015).

• Types of Migrants:

  • Refugees: Vagabonds forced to flee their home countries due to safety concerns (Haddad, 2003).
  • Asylum Seekers: Refugees who seek to remain in the country they flee to.
  • Labor Migrants: Those who migrate to find work (Kritz, 2008).
    • Driven by "push" factors (e.g., lack of employment in home countries) and "pull" factors (work available elsewhere).
    • Involves less-skilled and unskilled workers, as well as illegal immigrants.

• Restrictions on Labor Migration:

  • Labor migration faces many restrictions, often related to the Westphalian conception of the nation-state.
  • States may control migration due to the loss of workforce (Shamir, 2005).
  • Influx of migrants can lead to conflicts with local residents.
  • Concerns about terrorism also affect the desire to restrict population flows (Moses, 2006).

• Factors Governing Migration:

  • Push Factors: Political persecution, economic depression, war, and famine in the home country (Ritzer, 2015).
  • Pull Factors: Favorable immigration policy, labor shortage, and similarity of language and culture in the destination country (Ritzer, 2015).
  • Global factors, such as easy access to information about the destination country, also influence migration.

• Illegal Migration:

  • Many countries face issues of illegal migration.
  • The United States faces a major influx of illegal immigrants from Mexico and other Central American states (Thompson, 2008).
  • A fence is being constructed on the US-Mexico border to control this flow (Fletcher and Weisman, 2006), but its efficacy is questioned.
  • Tighter borders may lead illegal immigrants to adopt more dangerous methods to gain entry and "lock in" people who might otherwise have left (Fears, 2006).
  • Other countries with similar concerns include Great Britain, Switzerland, Greece, and countries in Asia.

• Backlash Against Illegal Immigrants:

  • In the North, illegal immigrants constitute a younger workforce that does work locals may not perform and contribute to growth as consumers (Economist, 2008).
  • They send remittances back to family members, improving recipients' lives, reducing poverty, and increasing education and foreign reserves in the home country (Economist, 2007).
  • Specialized organizations play a major role in remittance transmission due to banks' inability to handle small amounts and high volumes.
  • The Philippines, India, and China are leaders in remittance flow (Malkin, 2007): Philippines ($14.7$ billion), India ($24.5$ billion), and China ($21.1$ billion).

• Diaspora:

  • The term "diaspora" is increasingly used to describe migrant communities.
  • Paul Gilroy (1993) conceptualizes diaspora as a transnational process involving dialogue to both imagined and real locales.
  • Diasporization and globalization are closely interconnected (Dufoix, 2007).
  • "Virtual diasporas" (Laguerre, 2002) utilize technology like the Internet to maintain community networks.